Saturday is a big global day in MMA, with the UFC in Mexico City and the PFL in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for its PFL champions vs. Bellator champions event.
Mexico's own Brandon Moreno (21-7-2), a former UFC men's flyweight champion, headlines the UFC event against Brandon Royval (15-7) at Mexico City Arena (ESPN+, main card at 10 p.m. ET, prelims at 7 p.m.).
In Saudi Arabia, the PFL vs. Bellator card (ESPN+ PPV at 3 p.m. ET, ESPNews/ESPN+ prelims at 12:30 p.m.) is headlined by two bouts pitting two reigning champs against each other: PFL's Renan Ferreira (12-3) against Bellator's Ryan Bader (31-7) in the heavyweight main event, with a middleweight co-main of PFL light heavyweight champ Impa Kasanganay (15-3) against Bellator middleweight king Johnny Eblen (14-0). In addition, several other current and former champs are on the PFL card.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the two main events. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the UFC and PFL fights.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
PFL vs. Bellator heavyweight: Renan Ferreira vs. Ryan Bader
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Ferreira wins: This fight is tailor-made for the 6-foot-8 Ferreira to utilize his length and range. I've broken this guy down a bit with [our fighter] Francis Ngannou. Francis said, "Oh, this is an intriguing fight because of the guy's height and length. It's gonna be tricky." Do you try to kick a guy like Bader, who will try to take you down and get you off balance? I think Ferreira has to utilize his length and range and ensure he stays in the center of the cage, not put his back on the barrier.
How Bader wins: His wrestling. He has to get this guy down. Against a fighter of Ferreira's height, I would recommend going to a single-leg takedown, getting him off balance, maybe collecting a double leg, maybe a blast double, or something like that. But wrestle the guy, get him down. With a big, tall guy, you want to isolate legs, stay in a half-guard position and try to beat him up.
X-factor: Probably Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and Bader's inactivity. Ferreira fought four times last year, and Bader has only fought once since May 2022 -- and it was a fight of 2 minutes 30 seconds against a Fedor Emelianenko well into his 40s.
Prediction: Ferreira by knockout.
Betting analysis
Parker: Ferreira to win (-110). After seeing what Ferreira did to Dennis Goltsov in the PFL championship in November, taking him against Bader at even odds is a no-brainer. Ferreira will have advantages of four to five inches in height and 30 pounds in weight, and he is also six years younger than the 40-year-old Bellator champ. For Bader, the path to victory is to wrestle Ferreira to the ground and hold him there for the duration of the fight, unless he can get a ground-and-pound finish. However, if Goltsov couldn't do it, I don't see Bader doing it either. Look for Ferreira to defend the early takedown attempts and eventually get the win by TKO/KO.
UFC men's flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Moreno wins: He's refined his striking under boxing coach Jorge Capetillo. Moreno does very well off his jab, which has been much more educated under Capetillo. Moreno better understands the purpose behind his jab and how it sets up many of his other techniques. But when you fight a guy like Royval, you want to be more basic than him, because he is so unorthodox. So, I feel like the sharpness of Moreno and his basics will help navigate him through this fight. Utilizing his vision is key, especially in the first two rounds, and understanding the unorthodox techniques coming his way, then staying very basic and sharp, while utilizing his footwork and engaging in some wrestling -- while not exposing his neck. Royval has got a nasty guillotine.
How Royval wins: He will need to throw kicks behind his punches. What he did well in the first fight with Moreno was setting up his left kick. We call it a Michael Jackson knee, because it comes from the outside in, like when Michael Jackson was dancing. Royval set up his kicks well from the outside in the first fight, especially out of the Southpaw stance. And once Moreno started blocking the kick, Royval would show the kick from the outside and throw the knee up the midline. I thought that was an excellent way of trying to trap Moreno, maybe into a takedown shot and knee him up the middle. Royval will have to throw kicks behind his punches on the same side. He can catch Moreno that way. The other thing is, guys have had success over the years attacking Moreno's calf. I know the Factory X guys like Royval do an outstanding job of that.
X-factor: I think they will both be well prepared regarding the altitude. So, the X-factor is whichever coach can develop a better wrinkle in the game plan. These guys know each other very well. It's going to come down to an in-fight adjustment. Which team's adjustment can make a difference in the championship rounds?
Prediction: I lean towards Moreno. Skill for skill, he's all-around better everywhere. But I do question who will be in his corner. Royval has been with Marc Montoya his whole career. I have to say Moreno by decision only because of skill set, but I don't know. I think Royval has a pretty good shot of knocking him out, too.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Moreno to win (-300). It's a potentially wild matchup, as both men have put in barnburners in the past, a common feature among flyweight main events. At baseline, they combine for over 33 strike attempts per minute while standing at a distance, offering plenty of offense with slightly porous defense. But this time, we have the wrinkle of high altitude, which is the great killer of cardio in the cage.
I dislike high-altitude fight cards, because some fighters inevitably underestimate the risk, and gas after the first round. I'm looking at historical performance as a predictor of future performance, and altitude doesn't factor into the equation. And yet, we can't ignore it because of the pace these two are likely to set.
On paper, Royval is a much busier striker but less technical. Moreno is more accurate with tighter defense. But the power threat favors Royval, who hits harder per punch and is less damaged than Moreno. That's odd, considering Moreno TKO'd Royval four years back. However, in his recent title fight against Pantoja, Royval fell prey to superior wrestling. Royval was controlled for almost 16 minutes of fight time and was unable to use his impressive submission game. This plays to Moreno's strength in wrestling and is the key to his victory.
Leaning toward Moreno assumes his wrestling will slow the fight pace down, winning him rounds while nullifying Royval's power. It should also stretch the fight time, meaning betting Over 1.5 or 2.5 rounds could bring a better price on Moreno. But there's plenty of finishing potential on both sides of the cage, so don't push the total too far. I'm hoping Moreno gets his first win in Mexico City on his third try.
Best bets on the rest of the PFL vs. Bellator card
Middleweight: Impa Kasanganay vs. Johnny Eblen
Parker: Eblen to win by decision. Some consider Eblen one of the best middleweights in the world, regardless of organization, and he will have a chance to make a case for that against Kasanganay, the 2023 PFL light heavyweight champion. Kasaganay put on a masterful performance in his last outing, and if he plans to pull off the upset here, he will have to be masterful yet again. The fighters' striking is on the even side, but the Bellator champ will reign supreme in the wrestling. Look for Eblen to push a very high pace and use his striking to set up the wrestling. Once Eblen can establish that aspect of his game, he will take over and get the win.
Catchweight (182 pounds): Ray Cooper III vs. Jason Jackson
Parker: Jackson to win inside the distance. Originally slated to fight 2023 PFL welterweight champion Magomed Magomedkerimov, Jackson will now take on the always dangerous Cooper, the PFL champ in 2019 and 2021. Based on Jackson's last performance, in which he won the Bellator title, I was leaning toward him against Magomedkermiov. I will certainly take him against the short-notice replacement, Cooper. It's no secret that Cooper has the KO power to end a fight at any point, but he has not come into his last few fights in shape, on weight or looking as if he cares to be in there. That will be a problem against Jackson, who is well-rounded and will challenge Cooper's cardio. Expect Jackson to land early and eventually finish the fight on the ground.
Men's lightweight: Clay Collard vs. AJ McKee
Parker: Fight to go the distance; flier on Collard to win (+245). In what people are calling the people's main event, McKee and Collard are guaranteed to bring fireworks to the SmartCage. Collard is never out of a fight and will throw the kitchen sink at his opponent until the final bell. With him sitting at +200 and higher, I think there is some solid value on him. Collard will be looking to push the pace early and keep the fight standing. If McKee can't get this fight to the ground early, I expect Collard to go to the body and attempt to tire him out. Both men are durable, and the fight is scheduled for only three rounds. So, I expect it to go the distance regardless of who wins.
Women's lightweight: Claressa Shields vs. Kelsey DeSantis
Parker: Shields to win by KO/TKO or decision. Shields will be looking for redemption in her third PFL fight, as she lost her last bout by split decision to Abigail Montes in 2021. Can the boxing champion show the world an improved MMA skill set? The PFL is not rushing Shields into big fights, and I think that is the right thing to do, as she has star quality and a big name in combat sports. There is no reason to throw her into the fire until she is ready. Enter DeSantis, who started her MMA career at 0-2 and recently got her first win against a fighter making a pro debut. With DeSantis being primarily a striker, Shields will have the opportunity to feel comfortable on the feet, where she should have a massive advantage. Don't be shocked if Shields wrestles a little to show her evolution. Take Shields to win by a double method of victory (TKO/decision), as those seem to be her two main paths to victory.