UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski puts his belt and unbeaten streak at 145 pounds on the line when he takes on Ilia Topuria in the main event at UFC 298 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+).
Volkanovski, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has lost two of his last three fights, but both losses came in challenges for Islam Makhachev's UFC lightweight title. Topuria, ESPN's No. 5 ranked featherweight, enters the fight following a unanimous decision win over Josh Emmett at UFC Fight Night in June 2023.
In the co-main event, Paulo Costa makes his anticipated return to the Octagon after a near two-year layoff when he faces former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker. Costa beat Luke Rockhold by unanimous decision in his last fight at UFC 278 in August 2022. Whittaker's last fight ended in a second-round knockout loss to Dricus Du Plessis.
Andres Waters spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the main event while ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker examine the main event and highlight other intriguing bets on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Featherweight title fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach
How Volkanovski wins: He has to weather the early storm. The first round or two will be the scariest because if he's going to get caught by Topuria, it will likely be a flash knockout or a surprise submission. Topuria is a well-rounded fighter, so there is no "safe spot" for Volkanovski in this fight, but we've never seen Volkanovski in a position where he is being handled. He's won fights against the best strikers in the division like Max Holloway, and he's found ways to escape from elite submission artists like Brian Ortega. Even if Volkanovski is caught deep in a submission, we've seen him get through it.
I wouldn't put too much stock into his most recent loss to Islam Makhachev. Volkanovski took the fight on late notice and went up a weight class. I'm not counting him out until I see somebody in the featherweight division handle him. Volkanovski is smart. Unless this is the fight that he shows signs of slowing down or his chin fading, he will be able to handle what comes in any situation.
How Topuria wins: He has to get on the champ quickly and look to get a finish. To get a win here, Topuria has to catch Volkanovksi in the early rounds (Rounds 1 and 2). Topuria is sharp everywhere. So he has to be quick and, maybe, get Volkanovski to the ground and the look for a submission.
X-factor: Is Volkanovski slowing down? Topuria has fast striking. If Volkanovksi is slowing down, Topuria might be able to catch him. Aside from his losses after going up to 155 pounds, Volkanovski has been stellar in all areas.
Prediction: Volkanovski to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Underdog (Topuria, +105), or pass. Volkanovski is the more technical offensive striker, maintaining excellent accuracy, even when leading the pace. So, despite eating his fair share of shots, Volkanovski has historically outlanded opponents through each minute of standup in his bouts. But that's where the statistical advantages end on the feet. Topuria has shown nearly twice the power, and maintains tighter defense against distance strikes.
Topuria has the advantage on the ground as well. He rates highly on nearly every grappling metric. But as with the standup, context is important. Volkanovski earned his impressive stats against the best of the best, only facing elite talent over the last five years. Meanwhile, Topuria has breezed through some one-dimensional grapplers in his run to this title fight, and recently delivered a drubbing to a much older and sloppier opponent.
Though Topuria appears deserving of this opportunity, it still feels like a big step up in competition. And if anything, Volkanovski's recent metrics are unfairly depressed due to losses against Makhachev. Topuria could prove a lot with a win here, but the difference in strength of schedule makes the numerical lean toward the challenger questionable. Likely it's a pass on choosing a side, and I'll expect both men to remain competitive over 3.5 rounds.
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds (-130). Topuria has been on a tear and will be looking to do what no other featherweight has been able to do -- dethrone the champ. Outside of his most recent loss to Makhachev, Volkanovski had never been finished, and I don't think lightning strikes twice in a row. Topuria is a good boxer, but it's nothing the champ hasn't seen before. I expect a very competitive fight that goes bell to bell. I'm leaning towards Volkanovski due to strength of schedule, but over 3.5 rounds seems to be the play here.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa
Kuhn: Whittaker to win (-225). Costa's inactivity is a head-scratcher. Even if we credit his win over a breathless, high-altitude Luke Rockhold -- who retired after that fight -- Costa is just 2-2 in the last five years. He usually relies on his precision and power, rather than defense and pace, which is a liability that Whittaker is well suited to exploit against an arguably sloppy striker.
Without much of a ground game from Costa, we should expect a three-round striking duel. Hesitation from Costa should lead to Whittaker landing points at will. The wildcard is whether Costa can land a big counter to take advantage of Whittaker's far more damaged chin. But if it makes it to the cards, Whittaker should have more total points.
Welterweight: Geoff Neal vs. Ian Garry
Parker: Garry to win (-240). We have seen Garry get rocked on more than one occasion, and Neal has the punching power to change a fight at any moment. However, this fight feels like a showcase for Garry. As long as he stays away from the power of Neal, Garry will lead the dance and pick Neal apart throughout three rounds.
Men's bantamweight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo
Parker: Dvalishvili to win (-235). Until Dvalishvili loses, I won't bet against him. His gas tank is unmatched, and he has a high fight IQ. He managed to overwhelm Jose Aldo and Petr Yan with his constant pressure, and I don't see it being any different against Cejudo. Cejudo is a world-class wrestler and a former double champ, however Dvalishvili is a different challenge. I believe he will be a champ in the future.
Middleweight: Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
Kuhn: Hernandez to win (-195). If you're wondering who on this card has been the most dominant wrestler inside the Octagon entering UFC 298, it's not Merab Dvalishvili, Mackenzie Dern, or even Henry Cejudo. Surprisingly, it's Hernandez, by nearly double. He spends 41% of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat and averages just 37 seconds between takedown attempts when standing. His standup metrics are mixed, but the threat of Kopylov's accuracy and power combined with the poor head strike defense of Hernandez suggests the wrestler should stick to his established playbook.
At 92%, Kopylov's takedown defense has been stout to date, but once on the ground, he's been held there. It may take Hernandez multiple attempts, but hopefully, he survives long enough on the feet to string together takedowns and turn this into a wrestling match. If that happens, Hernandez will cruise to victory.