The middleweight division will be in the UFC spotlight for the second consecutive week as 185-pound contenders Jack Hermansson and Joe Pyfer square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+). Nassourdine Imavov and Roman Dolidze fought in the main event of UFC Fight Night last week.
Hermansson (23-8) has not fought since December 2023, a second-round knockout loss to Dolidze. Pyfer (12-2) is undefeated inside the Octagon, riding a three-fight winning streak. He has finished each of his opponents in the UFC (two knockouts, one submission). Neither fighter is ranked in ESPN's divisional rankings.
Andres Waters spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Hermansson wins: He has to use his footwork to frustrate Pyfer. If Hermansson can frustrate him, that could force Pyfer to make mistakes when he is moving forward. Those mistakes could open up opportunities for a takedown, and if Hermansson can get on top of Pyfer and keep him there, he can use his ground and pound. Hermansson has some of the best ground and pound in the sport. He excels at creating space with his upper body to deliver good punches and strikes on the ground while maintaining positional control with his lower body, which most fighters aren't good at.
How Pyfer wins: He just get into his boxing zone. Once he can find his range and get into his zone, he's probably one of the better pound-for-pound punchers in all of MMA right now. To establish that rhythm, he just has to find Hermansson. Hermansson will move around a lot and throw kicks, so Pyfer can't let that frustrate him. He just has to move with Hermansson a little and find his range to let the punches go.
If Pyfer can control range and get his hands on Hermansson, he has the punching power to pull off another knockout. Also, Pyfer wrestles well. He's strong and hard to take down. He's not going to be easy to get on the mat.
X factor: Pyfer's ground game. It's possible that Pyfer could be the better fighter on the mat than Hermansson. We haven't seen it yet, because he has finished every opponent he's faced in the Octagon thus far. I can't say for sure, but it's a possibility.
Prediction: I'll take Pyfer. Maybe the first round or so will be close because Hermansson will be smart. But once Pyfer gets rolling, I think he will beat Hermansson up.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Take the underdog (Hermansson, +225) or pass. Statistically, Pyfer is a deserving favorite and shows up on paper with superior performance metrics in almost every category. However, the sample size is important. With just 14 minutes of Octagon time, Pyfer has looked incredible and remains somewhat unknown.
Hermansson will be most at risk early, as he doesn't have much power to offer and is more susceptible to a knockdown. His poor head strike defense and age only compound this risk. However, Pyfer is untested in defending takedowns. If Hermansson can get this to the ground, he negates the biggest threat -- Pyfer's power punching -- and puts himself in a position to leverage his strength via submissions.
This a great litmus test-type fight for Pyfer. If there's any value in the line, it would be in the wily underdog veteran instead of the unproven favored prospect. Either way, I have little expectation that this sees the cards.
Parker: Pyfer to win (-275). Since 2019, Hermansson has traded wins and losses with some of the best in the division. However, he is in a world of trouble if he can't get this fight to the ground. Hermansson uses volume striking to set up his takedowns. However, Pyfer has excellent takedown defense and will be the physically stronger athlete. I love this matchup for Pyfer. Look for Pyfer to keep this fight on the feet and eventually take out Hermansson.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili
Kuhn: Ige to win (-170). Ige is usually the smaller fighter, despite preferring to stand and strike. That doesn't change here against a taller and rangier opponent. But Ige excels at capitalizing on the moments where he can close the distance. He has superior accuracy and knockdown power, plus the low head strike defense and cumulative damage for his opponent help Ige's chances in standup. The ground game is somewhat of a wash but arguably favors Fili. I just don't expect the fight to spend much time there. In a three-round fight, Ige should know to get aggressive early and unleash his hands.
Lightweight: Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers
Parker: Johnson to win (-135). Johnson might be the unluckiest fighter ever to grace the Octagon. There have been many fights where he was dominating, and then got caught at the end to lose. There have also been a few split decisions that haven't gone his way when most people thought he had won. However, he gets a chance here to fight someone who is a favorable matchup with a lot less experience. There is no question that Flowers carries power in his hands, however, if he doesn't land that KO early, I expect Johnson to put on a boxing clinic and get another win.
Light heavyweight: Devin Clark vs. Marcin Prachnio
Kuhn: Clark to win (-235). Both fighters have taken significant damage over the years, but at least Clark is more than capable of dishing it out. On the feet, he's more accurate, has better defense and has more power than Prachnio.
The striking metrics slightly favor Clark, but the ground game is more lopsided in his favor. He attempts frequent takedowns and is in control on the mat more often than not. Meanwhile, Prachnio has spent less than 1% of fight time in ground control, the lowest of any established fighter on the card. Even if Clark isn't scoring with standup, wrestling is an easier path to victory. I'd place a small prop bet on Clark to win by decision.
Light heavyweight: Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov
Parker: Pauga to win (-125). With five out of his six wins coming by decision, Pauga doesn't have the most exciting fighting style, but it is efficient. Against an opponent like Guskov, if he stays efficient and controls the pace, Pauga should have no problem getting the win. Guskov has a padded record outside the UFC, which showed against Volkan Oezdemir. Guskov isn't technical with his striking, he just tends to bull rush in and swing for the fences. As long as Pauga doesn't get caught, he should pick Guskov apart on the feet and, if he is really smart, take the fight to the ground.