Beneil Dariush looks to get back in the win column when he takes on fellow lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan in the main event at UFC Fight Night in Austin, Texas, on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+). The event will be UFC's fifth annual Fight Like Hell Night honoring the late ESPN anchor Stuart Scott. The fight promotion will donate to the Stuart Scott Memorial Cancer Research Fund at the V Foundation.
Dariush (22-5-1) lost to former division champion Charles Oliveira in his last fight at UFC 289 in June. Tsarukyan (20-3) is on a two-fight win streak. He beat Joaquim Silva by third-round knockout at UFC Fight Night in June.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick and Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA coach and analyst Din Thomas to get their perspectives on the main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Dariush wins: Dariush has to make this fight a marathon. Try to get Tsarukyan into deeper waters. Get some good grappling exchanges in, and some good scrambles, similar to what we saw in the Mateusz Gamrot fight. And maybe you can wear on Tsarukyan in the later rounds. Dariush should look at trying to put Tsarukyan on his back and offensive wrestle from there. They're both very, very good on the ground. Tsarukyan has never been submitted. But if you're thinking of the long game, Dariush has to mix everything in and lean a little heavier on his wrestling and scrambling.
How Tsarukyan wins: Come out hard and heavy. Get in Dariush's face right away. Beneil was knocked out in his last fight against Oliveira. It's important to get on him quickly and apply pressure. Let him know, like, "Hey, man, we're here to bang." Tsarukyan's striking has gotten better. He believes in it a lot more now and he carries a lot of power. For a guy like Arman, who loves to wrestle -- show that. Show that level change and show those up-down motions and then try to bang up on Dariush a little bit on the feet. Try to get Dariush out of there in the first or second round.
X-factor: Dariush has never been in a five-round fight. I'm curious to see how he paces himself. I think his maturity and his fight IQ will be just fine. If Dariush wins this fight, it'll be with the intelligence of his game. But it's interesting to me that his first main event and first five-round fight come against an up-and-coming challenger. Beneil can grapple and hang on him and stay heavy for 25 minutes. I just want to see how he fares in a fight like that. If he wins with style points, it catapults him right back into a contender spot. Similar to [our fighter] Sean Strickland. He lost to Alex Pereira and then came back and got the title shot against Israel Adesanya.
Prediction: Dariush is a pretty big underdog against Tsarukyan, but I think it's a lot closer on paper than what the odds suggest. I'm leaning toward Beneil in this fight, only because of his experience. He's not going to get flustered if he loses the first round or two. He'll find his path, which I think will be his offensive wrestling. As crazy as it may sound, Beneil can even use grappling exchanges initiated by Tsarukyan as a way of getting a takedown through chain wrestling into his offensive flow. I think Dariush will find a way to get it done, by decision.
Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Dariush wins: Beneil has to take advantage of the defensive irresponsibility of Tsarukyan. He has a powerful offense, but if you look at his fights against Davi Ramos or Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Tsarukyan gets hit quite a bit -- he's just able to power through it. If Dariush can be very accurate, he can take advantage. He also has to do the same thing he did against Gamrot, which is to disengage from all grappling activity, as opposed to getting into scrambles. If he tries to engage with Arman and scramble, scramble, scramble, Arman might get the better of that and get on top. I think Dariush should fully disengage.
How Tsarukyan wins: Arman has to go first, that's just the reality of it. If he can be the one with the initial shots and the initial striking, then he can mix up his attacks. As long as he's going first, he can keep Dariush on the defensive all the time, eliminating any chance Beneil has of putting together offense. And the good thing about Tsarukyan is that he's so talented, he can pick which weapon to go first with. A lot of guys have either a good wrestling attack with no striking, or good striking but no wrestling. They can't go first because their opponent knows what's coming. Arman has offensive power in both. He can strike going forward and he has good wrestling.
X-factor: Tsarukyan's chin. How does it hold up to Dariush's strikes? If Beneil throws some knees early, I think he can catch him that way.
Prediction: I think Beneil's loss to Oliveira was the nail in the coffin. Beneil had a great run, but that loss really took the wind out of the sails, and I think Tsarukyan wins a decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Tsarukyan to win (-275). It's a grappler's delight for the main event. On paper, these two are eerily similar in a number of important ground metrics. But Tsarukyan's youth and durability could give him the upper hand on the feet round over round against Dariush, who is pushing 35 years old with five prior knockdowns.
The price on Tsarukyan has risen significantly since opening. I'll still back him, but the better angle is that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds. Or combine Tsarukyan with an over 1.5 or 2.5 rounds prop to bring his price down.
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds. Dariush will really need to dig deep. He has power in his hands and is an excellent grappler, but he will need to utilize his takedown defense against the wrestling of Tsarukyan. If Dariush can keep the fight standing and turn this into a boxing match, he might be able to squeeze out a decision here. For Tsarukyan, he will need to avoid the power of Dariush and utilize his wrestling to get it done.
Tsarukyan is an almost 3-1 favorite, and that line is just too wide for this fight, so I am going to lean into the over 3.5 rounds, as I expect a lot of clinching against the cage and wrestling for the majority of this fight.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Drakkar Klose vs. Joe Solecki
Kuhn: Klose to win (-120). Klose has the experience edge here, and he's faced grinders like Solecki before. Solecki surprisingly spends more time controlling opponents on the ground than any other fighter on the card, which is impressive given the headliners. But that lay-and-pray strategy may not work against a more experienced fighter.
Klose's takedown defense is above average, so assuming he can remain on his feet for enough time in each round, he should pose the more threatening striking. Notably, it's a stacked fight card when two fighters with a combined 12-3 record in the UFC are placed midway into the prelims.
Parker: Klose to win. I think this is a spectacular matchup for Klose. He has a wrestling background, and if he can stop the takedowns of Solecki, he should be able to dictate the fight as he will have a major advantage on the feet. Klose tends to get better as the fight goes on, so as long as he doesn't get subbed in the first round, look for Klose to take over in Rounds 2 and 3.
Welterweight: Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden
Kuhn: Turman to win (-190). This matchup looks sloppy on paper. While both fighters have a mix of good, bad and ugly performance metrics, the more glaring defensive stats are on the side of Gooden.
Both men have switched weight classes in the past, and assuming there aren't issues cutting weight here, I favor Turman's grappling to be the differentiator in this fight. He also has more UFC experience than Gooden, who is on his second stint with the promotion, and Turman has faced superior opponents.
Women's bantamweight: Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila
Parker: Tate to win (+130). I was very surprised when I saw the betting line and Avila was the favorite. Granted, Tate has lost her last two in a row, but Avila has been out for two years and has never fought anyone in the top 10, while Tate is a former champ. In her last fight, Avila was being outgrappled until she was able to capitalize on one mistake by her opponent and get the win. In a fight against a seasoned vet like Tate, there is no room for error, and I fully expect Tate to utilize her wrestling, where she will have a major advantage. Avila does carry power in her hands; however, her striking is very wild and reckless, which leaves her open to get taken down.
Light heavyweight: Ihor Potieria vs Rodolfo Bellato
Parker: Bellato by TKO/KO. Since his win on "Dana White's Contender Series," Potieria has gone 1-2 in his UFC appearances, with both losses by way of TKO. He tends to keep his chin high when he throws looping punches, and against a KO artist like Bellato, it will be a matter of time before he gets finished. Look for Bellato to work in calf kicks early to slow Potieria down and eventually get the KO.