Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka makes his highly anticipated return this weekend as he faces former middleweight champion Alex Pereira in the main event at UFC 295 on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Procházka (29-3-1) has been out of action for nearly 17 months as he was recovering from a shoulder injury. In his absence, the division has only had one other titleholder, Jamahal Hill, who also had to vacate the title due to injury in July. Pereira (8-2), who recently moved up to the 205-pound division, beat former champion Jan Blachowicz by split decision in July to earn this title fight. Pereira is ranked No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings.
In the co-main event, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall will go head-to-head for the interim heavyweight title. This fight was recently booked following the announcement that reigning champion Jon Jones backed out of his title defense against Stipe Miocic due to injury. Pavlovich (18-1), ESPN's No. 2 ranked heavyweight, enters the fight riding a six-fight win streak, each of those wins coming via first-round knockout. Most recently, Aspinall (13-3), ESPN's No. 5 ranked heavyweight, beat Marcin Tybura by first-round knockout in the main event at UFC London in July.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC welterweight and ESPN MMA analyst Michael Chiesa to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight and ESPN MMA analyst
How Procházka wins: Procházka has shown more variety in terms of weaponry. With Pereira, he's a two-time Glory kickboxing champion, so he has the art of striking with all of his limbs, but he mostly sits behind his boxing and calf kicks. He doesn't feature a lot of diversity in his attack. Procházka is long and has a good reach. I think Alex has more punching power, but his defense relies on timing -- slipping and ripping counters. He keeps his hands low and he doesn't block punches. Procházka has to disrupt Alex's timing, which he's good at -- using his unorthodox style to affect conventional strikers.
How Pereira wins: This is the biggest test of Pereira's UFC career, because he's only faced one full-size light heavyweight. Outside of Blachowicz, Pereira has only faced smaller guys in the middleweight division. Israel Adesanya is a natural middleweight. Sean Strickland is a former welterweight. Pereira has fought light heavyweights in kickboxing, but he doesn't have much experience doing it in MMA with four-ounce gloves. The calf kick has to come into play here. He does a good job of masking it, and Procházka has a wide stance, so that will be available all day. It might come at the expense of eating Procházka's jab, though.
X factor: Pereira's lack of experience fighting bigger guys in MMA. How does he look against a 205-er who is in his prime?
Prediction: It's a tough one. Initially, I picked Pereira based on the analytics, but after deep diving into the matchup, I believe Procházka wins.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Pass, slight lean Pereira to win (-125). The numbers suggest Pereira has a slight advantage to out-strike Procházka in what should be primarily a standup war. But that is based more on Procházka's willingness to eat strikes than Pereira's ability to deliver them.
On paper, both men are impressive offensively, demonstrating elite striking metrics. However, neither has excelled on the ground, with the notable exception of Procházka's late submission finish of Glover Teixeira. Both men reveal susceptible defense in the form of below-average head strike avoidance. But I would argue that Pereira is more vulnerable due to age, cumulative career damage and the recent move up in weight class. That leaves me backing off the slight lean that Pereira should be the more efficient or effective striker, round over round.
I'll be watching for price movement to see if value reveals itself. I think Procházka has more finishing potential, but I'm still unsure how many rounds he can win against a proven striker like Pereira if a finish doesn't come first.
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. In his last fight, Procházka beat Pereira's mentor, Teixeira, by submission to claim the light heavyweight title. But, we can all agree that the only way this fight goes to the ground is if someone is hitting it due to getting knocked down or knocked out.
Procházka's best option would be to get it to the ground and take away any striking threat from Pereira. I think it's safe to say, he isn't subbing anyone off his back. However, my biggest concern for Procházka is how he will be after this injury and extended layoff. If Pereira can keep this fight standing and throw more volume like he did in the second and third rounds against Blachovicz, I think he can win. I expect this to be a fun, edge-of-your-seat type of striking battle. Both men possess knockout power, but Round 1 may be more of a feeling-out period.
Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
Tom Aspinall explains how he is taking inspiration from Leon Edwards' journey to UFC gold.
How Pavlovich wins: Aspinall has more layers to his game than Pavlovich, and he'll likely want to use all of them in this matchup -- but that may not be a good idea in this short-notice fight. Pavlovich is shorter, but he has a significant reach advantage and everyone knows he will come out hot, as he does in all of his fights. Pavlovich has to get his strikes off first, because this is a finisher's fight. I don't think there's anything to overthink here. As fighters, our job is to go out and look for a finish, but it's especially important in this one. I don't think either of these guys will have the gas tank to go into later rounds, having taken the fight on short notice. For Sergei, it's about landing that overhand right and left jab. The jab is his biggest weapon.
How Aspinall wins: Aspinall is very elusive and he moves well. He's fast. You watch Pavlovich's quick knockouts and think, "Maybe he'll be able to match Tom's hand speed," but -- and I say this with all due respect -- most heavyweights are going to look fast when they're fighting guys like Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. In Pavlovich's fight against Curtis Blaydes, there wasn't much of a speed advantage. So, Aspinall will be faster and he needs to use that. He does a great job with pull counters, pulling back while simultaneously throwing a counterpunch. He leaves his chin a little high but has the speed and elusiveness to get away with it. It also makes it easier to execute the pull counter if you're not always tucking your chin in. Aspinall wants to draw out those power punches from Sergei and then counter them.
X factor: The short notice. I think it heavily favors Pavlovich. If both guys had 12 weeks to prepare, Aspinall would be a clear favorite, but the little preparation time favors Sergei's style.
Prediction: I wonder if Aspinall will have the confidence in his gas tank to use all of the layers of his game with minimal prep time. I'm taking Pavlovich here.
Number to watch: 2:19. Aspinall has etched his name in the UFC record book as well. The 30-year-old has the shortest average fight time, averaging just 2 minutes and 19 seconds of action when he steps into the Octagon. Pavlovich has the third-shortest average time at 2:23. Don't blink when these two enter the cage on Saturday.
For more on the numbers behind this matchup, check out UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall by the numbers.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Aspinall to win (-120). It's a title fight matchup where the combined Octagon experience of both combatants adds up to a mere 33 minutes of fight time. Both fighters earned a title shot by making short work of opponents. With extremely high offensive metrics, we have new blood in the heavyweight division that could be a threat against anyone for a long time.
But defensively, and on the ground, is where I seek hidden value, Aspinall has better performance metrics. Sample size is still a concern, as both fighters won't be able to maintain such impressive metrics should this fight last more than one round. But given their fight histories, Aspinall offers better dual-threat finishing potential.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Strawweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern
Kuhn: Dern to win (-190). Dern must rely on her grappling skills against the more experienced Andrade.
Andrade may be riding a three-fight losing streak, but at strawweight, she's one of the more dangerous strikers, even if she couldn't quite hang with the best at women's flyweight. Dern is learning that she can't force success at striking, but just surviving for stretches on the feet can help her set up better takedowns, instead of shooting right out of the gate and getting stuffed.
In a three-round fight, Dern should be able to control Andrade for extended periods on the ground, and also threaten with submissions. But, hopefully, for anyone betting on the favored Dern, she closes the distance quickly and uses the fence to stifle Andrade for eventual takedowns.
Men's flyweight: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
Parker: Erceg to win (-195). Not only did Erceg impress in his UFC debut against a tough David Dvorak in June, but he did it on short notice and looked unbothered by the circumstances. Erceg should have the edge everywhere, and we've already seen Costa get finished against Amir Albazi in 2022. I think Erceg gets this done comfortably and continues to rise up the ranks. Keep an eye on him, he could be a future champ.
Lightweight: Jared Gordon vs. Mark O. Madsen
Kuhn: Gordon to win (-190). Despite his impressive credentials, Madsen hasn't proven he can succeed against an experienced MMA grappler. Gordon offers a more well-rounded offensive game, and is competent enough on the mat to deal with Madsen's traditional wrestling.
Neither has shown much power, but the pace and precision of Gordon leads him to outland opponents in cumulative strikes, while Madsen tends to take more than he can dish out. Combined with either man's lack of submission attempts, Gordon winning at least two rounds seems the likeliest scenario.