Bellator MMA will host its 300th event this weekend, with a fight card that will be headlined by three title fights. Lightweight champion Usman Nurmagamdov, women's featherweight champ Cris Cyborg and women's flyweight champ Liz Carmouche will all defend their belts on the event's main card at Bellator 300 at Pechanga Arena in San Diego on Saturday night.
Nurmagomedov, who holds an undefeated professional record (17-0), will face Brent Primus in the main event. Carmouche, ranked No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings, takes on former champion Ilima-Lei Macfarlane. Cyborg, who recently fell out of ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings due to inactivity, will fight challenger Cat Zingano.
Also on Saturday night, UFC lightweight contenders Grant Dawson and Bobby Green go head-to-head in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the UFC fight card. Parker also gives his top picks for the Bellator 300 fight card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Best bets for Bellator 300:
Lightweight: Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Brent Primus
Pass on moneyline. Nurmagomedov to win via KO/TKO. Nurmagomedov will defend against a former champ in Primus. Nurmagomedov has looked unstoppable and he continues to improve in each fight. Currently, Nurmagomedov is a -2400 betting favorite against Primus. That line is way too high to take on the moneyline, no matter how confident we are in the champ. To bet on this fight, I would lean toward the props and take a look at Nurmagomedov to get a KO/TKO finish.
Women's featherweight: Cris Cyborg vs. Cat Zingano
Cyborg to win by KO/TKO. In order for Zingano to pull off the upset against Cyborg, she has to turn this into a five-round wrestling match. If she can take down Cyborg early to steal rounds and hopefully tire Cyborg out, then Zingano will give herself a shot. However, I just don't see that happening. Cyborg has repeatedly shown us that unless your name is Amanda Nunes, you aren't beating her. Cyborg has great takedown defense paired with powerful, technical and precise striking. Look for Cyborg to stuff the early takedowns and eventually get the finish.
Women's flyweight: Liz Carmouche vs. Ilima-Lei Macfarlane
Carmouche to win (-270). Coming off a split decision win over Kana Watanabe, Macfarlane will fight for a championship in the last bout of her career. However, that will be tall task against Carmouche, the champ, who has been on a tear. Since joining Bellator in 2020, Carmouche has gone undefeated, with five of her six wins coming by finish. It wouldn't shock me if she added another finish to her resume in this fight. Carmouche will be the stronger and more aggressive fighter with better striking and wrestling. However, Carmouche needs to be careful in top position on the mat as Macfarlane is an ace off her back and will threaten with submissions. If she steers clear of that, this should be another successful title defense for the champ.
Best bets for UFC Fight Night
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Dawson wins: Grant has got to get onto Green's legs without getting clipped. I mean, that is what Dawson does. Once he gets on the legs, he's good. His wrestling and chain wrestling are fantastic. His ground control and backtakes are great as well. He just has to get to the legs without getting punched or kicked before doing so.
This is his first five-round fight. Dawson needs to make sure he conserves his energy or he's got to try and get Green out of there in one or two rounds. Dawson's standup is not great. It's good for a round or two, but he's a grappler. Around the middle of the second round and into the third round, his striking fundamentals, movement, and reaction time significantly slow down. He has to make sure that he doesn't get hurt late if the fight goes there.
How Green wins: He can't give so much respect to Grant's takedowns that he doesn't throw strikes. He naturally has a swaggy, lateral movement style and must stick with that. Keep the distance and keep moving laterally. But when Dawson is shooting or trying to get close and set up his shot, Green has got to fire. Use those fast hands to fire in the pocket. Green has to make stuff ugly in there to hurt Dawson, who can get hurt in many different ways. If Green is too worried about the takedown, he's not going to open up his hands, meaning he won't hurt Grant in the transition. Then, eventually, Grant will push him back to the cage and get takedowns. Green has to take some calculated risks and he's got to do that while he's moving. He has to be firing punches. He can't wait for the perfect shot.
X-factor: Dawson's bodylock. Dawson fought and beat our guy Mark Madsen on 10 days notice. And we knew what we needed to do. We knew Dawson would attack the single leg then slide low to the knee to pull it back and take the back leg. But we only had 10 days to drill it. Against Damir Ismagulov, Dawson made him look silly and I was shocked, controlling Ismagulov with his wrestling. He took him down and controlled him in that bodylock beautifully.
Prediction: I think Dawson will ruin many people's nights by beating Green. If this was three years ago, I'd pick Green any day of the week. But Dawson is coming up and doing his thing, I don't think he will get tired in this fight.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Dawson to win (-400) parlay with Over 2.5 rounds. While Dawson doesn't waste many seconds between takedown attempts, his success rate is low, and Green's defense is solid. But it's only a matter of time. Dawson, the much younger fighter, will have plenty of time to work and pursue Green until this fight finally hits the floor.
Dawson spends over half of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat. And once he's on the ground, the submission attempts will also come, 13 of his 20 wins have come via submission. Green's veteran defenses suggest he won't go down easy. Expect lots of back control time for Dawson in a fight that takes a few rounds to develop. There isn't much value in the current line, so consider Dawson for parlays or combine him with Over 2.5 rounds to get the price down.
Parker: Dawson to win inside the distance (-135). Dawson is on a roll. He is primarily known for his suffocating pace and wrestling, but in his last fight, he showed that his striking is now a threat too. That only makes his wrestling more dangerous. This main event spot against Green is a showcase fight for Dawson. Green is no slouch but Dawson is catching him near the end of his career. Unless Green can stop the takedowns or finish Dawson in the early rounds, then look for Dawson to get this fight to the mat and dominate from the start to whenever he gets the finish.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Parker: Pyfer to win inside the distance (-250). Both of these fighters have one-punch knockout power that doesn't hurt their opponent, it puts them straight to sleep. After a long layoff, Alhassan returned in 2020 and started off ice cold losing three fights in a row. Since then, he has two wins in his last three fights, with both of his wins came via knockout. On the other hand, Pyfer has looked perfect winning his two UFC fights by first-round TKO. I understand why Pyfer is a 4-to-1 favorite. He has knockout power and he is a good wrestler. If this fight hits the mat, he would have an advantage from top position. Pyfer also has a cardio advantage, we have seen Alhassan fade in fights once it gets past the first seven and a half minutes. Alhassan will throw heat early on, but I expect Pyfer to threaten with the wrestling and eventually get the finish here.
Featherweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo
Parker: Algeo to win (-145). Stylistically, this is the type of fight where we have seen Algeo thrive. Algeo is a good striker with excellent jiu-jitsu, but his best weapon is the pace he fights at. Hernandez has great power and good wrestling, but he fades as the fight continues. In his fight against Billy Quarantillo, Hernandez was dominant in Round 1, but he faded in Round 2 and got finished near the end of the round. If Hernandez can't hold Algeo down for all three rounds, then he is in for a rough night. Algeo will keep coming forward and fight at a pace that is going to be very difficult for Hernandez to handle.
Light heavyweight: Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba
Kuhn: Cutelaba to win (-160). Cutelaba was briefly an underdog, but the market has since backed him over Lins. Cutelaba is usually an undersized light heavyweight, but remains a threat in any fight with his aggression and power. If he can bait Lins into trading leather, Cutelaba is more likely to get the better of the shootout. Lins likes to stall in the clinch, spending nearly a quarter of each round in control in that position, which helps him win decisions. Yet Cutelaba prefers to force the action. Over eight years the junior, I like Cutelaba in a matchup where his size disadvantage will be less pronounced than usual, and his grappling offers a backup plan.
Parker: Lins to win (+135). Lins is 3-0 since 2022 and has looked like a completely different fighter. I am baffled by the betting line here, as Cutelaba currently sits as a -135 favorite over Lins. Before his TKO win over Tanner Boser in his last fight, Cutelaba was on a three-fight losing streak, all coming by finish. To me, the betting line seems off because we know with Cutelaba it's either get a finish or get finished, and Lins is a smart fighter who won't fight Cutelaba's wild game. If Lins can survive the Round 1 onslaught of Cutelaba, I believe he will take over in the later rounds. Lins is the better striker and smarter fighter, he also has a ground game that would take away the power of Cutelaba. There's too much value on Lins here to pass up he should win as long as he doesn't get tagged early.
Strawweight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita
Kuhn: Belbita to win (+130). They won't look like they're in the same weight class due to the size difference, not to mention a difference of nearly 11 years in age. Yet the younger, larger Belbita is the underdog. Kowalkiewicz has better credentials and a more impressive strength of schedule, but she only has one win over an active UFC fighter since her title run in 2016. Belbita matches up well statistically, but it's the size and youth advantage that reveals value in a plus-money play. Look for her to put on a better pace at long range to eke out a close decision.