Vicente Luque aims to halt a two-fight losing streak as he takes on Rafel dos Anjos in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Both fighters, who are unranked in ESPN's divisional rankings, will be making their first appearance in the Octagon this year. Luque enters the fight following back-to-back losses to Belal Muhammad and Geoff Neal, respectively. Meanwhile, dos Anjos beat Bryan Barberena by second-round submission in his last bout in December 2022.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Luque wins: He's got to stop dos Anjos' offense at some point. As we saw in his fights with Muhammad and Neal, he just wasn't doing anything. He has a high guard standing up and he moves forward, but he doesn't move his head and he doesn't throw punches first. If he's going to throw first and press, it's a great tactic. But he has that high guard and there's nothing in between him and his opponents to disrupt the opponent's rhythm. In his last two fights, he's waiting for a counter, but he's not creating it. Additionally, he has a hard time with lateral movement and his opponents aren't just standing there and throwing with him. So, he needs to touch and go first. Lead the dance instead of trying to play counterstrike against people who are playing tag with him. When he ends up in these situations, he opens up a little too much and gets clipped.
How dos Anjos wins: It's pretty simple. He has to mix his striking with his wrestling. Dos Anjos also has to move a little bit. If he avoids standing in front of Luque, Luque is going to have a hard time winning this fight. As long as he's moving in and out and left and right, and mixing in the left hand, he'll be in good shape. Not big overhands, though, which are going to be blocked by the high guard. Just straight punches right down the middle. The straight punches are landing on Luque and he seems a step behind lately. If dos Anjos mixes those straight punches with wrestling, again and again, and keeps the pressure on Luque, I think that's the path to victory.
X-factor: Luque doesn't seem like he knows how he's going to win a fight right now. And his chin isn't what it used to be. He is getting hit a lot and is not overloading volume, nor is he out there swinging for the fences to knock people out. Luque suffered an injury in his last fight against Neal. That's a major factor and that could affect him mentally. I think it will mess with him and probably even further his inability or unwillingness to just trade blow for blow. You can't have any worries about your health or regard for your safety when you're in the cage. The second that comes in, you need to retire.
Prediction: I think dos Anjos wins and I could see him finding a submission on Luque in a later round or grinding out a decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Dos Anjos to win (-125). Dos Anjos presents a tricky situation, straddling the line between two weightclasses, lightweight and welterweight. He'll be at an obvious size disadvantage against Luque, and yet RDA's strengths could help mitigate that by wrestling early and often.
While standing, Luque boasts a more dangerous offense, but he concedes much more defense than dos Anjos. Both tend to lag the pace of opponents, and with such a reach differential the feeling-out process could be extended. Theoretically, that allows dos Anjos to find openings for takedowns.
On the mat, the advantage sways back towards dos Anjos, who is capable of grinding out rounds and avoiding too much damage. Having survived five-round fights against three current or former welterweight champions suggests that he can survive any scares that Luque might offer intermittently on the feet.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Featherweight: Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu
Kuhn: Lean Swanson to win (+190). Value seekers should watch the return of Swanson, a veteran striker. Though he doesn't show it much, he has a ground game that could be a difference-maker against Dawodu. While Swanson is approaching age 40, and facing an opponent with a reach advantage, the veteran has the technical striking skills to compete with Dawodu on the feet.
Assuming he doesn't take too much damage while standing, Swanson can then mix in his under-utilized wrestling to sway rounds. It's definitely a value play for someone his age, but if he returns around +200 odds, a small stab is worthy.
Light heavyweight: Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Chris Daukaus
Kuhn: Lean Rountree Jr. to win (-190), fight does not go the distance (-650). With 17 combined knockdowns and, literally, zero career takedowns landed, this might be one of the more knockout-prone matchups I've seen on paper. These guys plan to stand and trade leather, and it will only be a matter of time before one of them can cause serious damage.
Rountree appears to be slightly sturdier. While Daukaus has put together an impressive knockout streak, he will be making his light heavyweight debut after being finished by three consecutive opponents at heavyweight. Daukaus has yet to see the third round through seven UFC appearances, and with an opponent willing to strike with him in a small cage, that should create plenty of opportunities for a finish.
I support Rountree as the favorite, but don't want to spend too much given the inherent volatility of light heavyweight slugfests
Lightweight: Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden
Parker: McKinney to win inside the distance. In desperate need of a win, McKinney is finally getting a matchup that makes sense for him. Granted, it's on short notice, but the difference in the skill level here is larger than the betting lines suggest. McKinney will look to take this fight to the ground where he will have a significant advantage. Once on the mat, expect McKinney to control Breeden or try to get a submission in Round 1. However, we have seen McKinney have dominant showings in Round 1, only to gas himself out and lose in Round 2. I think McKinney gets it done inside the distance, but don't hesitate to throw a live bet on Breeden after the first round if you see a repeat performance from McKinney's last fight.
Heavyweight: Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday
Parker: Buday to win (-220). Buday has been flawless thus far in his UFC career. He will be the bigger fighter of the two, and along with that size advantage, he has speed and aggressive pressure that matches up well against Parisian's hesitant style. As long as Buday doesn't gas himself out and avoids getting caught by a lucky punch from Parisian, he is better everywhere and should be able to get the finish.