Former UFC middleweight title challengers Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier will square off in the Octagon for a chance to move closer to another shot at the champion in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Vettori, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a unanimous decision win over Roman Dolidze. Cannonier, ranked just behind Vettori, enters the fight following a split decision win over Sean Strickland on the last UFC fight card of 2022.
On Friday night (6 p.m. ET on ESPN+), the PFL will continue its second half of the regular season with the heavyweights and women's featherweights at the Overtime Elite Arena in Atlanta. The main event will feature last year's champion Ante Delija making his 2023 season debut against Maurice Greene. Last year's women's lightweight champion, Larissa Pacheco, will face Amber Leibrock in the co-main event.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the UFC card. Parker also provided his best bets from the PFL card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Vettori wins: Marvin reminds me of a 185-pound Colby Covington. He's good everywhere for the most part. He doesn't have knockout power, but he just won't die. He's always in your face, has good cardio, and outlasts people. He'll mix his boxing and his wrestling. Vettori doesn't push the pace that Colby does, but his skillset in outlasting people reminds me of him. The issue with Vettori is he fights people in the opposing stance a lot. He does not have a long reach or close distance well. He will throw two punches at a time and then he resets. But if you were to throw those two punches and then another two-punch combo and another two-punch combo crowding forward, he would have much more success. Vettori does a really good job of firing off the clinch break and firing two, three or four punches off the break. If you watch, anytime he clinches, he frames his head on the lower end of his opponent's jaw, and it creates some space, allowing him to throw punches at a different angle without being countered back. I love that about Vettori. Vettori has got to set a pace and he needs to crowd, and he needs to be in Cannonier's face with high volume, or Cannonier will pick him apart with the kicks on the outside.
How Cannonier wins: He is big and strong. He has a long reach and a very sturdy body. Because he is 38 years old, you usually start to see chin, body, athleticism and speed issues. And we've not seen that with Cannonier. His cardio is great. There are two keys to this. One is kicking. His kicks are not necessarily better than his hands, but he uses them more effectively. A lot of times, Jared will switch stances. Marvin Vettori, who is a southpaw, doesn't see that much. So, Vettori doesn't have to check kicks and people aren't calf-kicking him because almost everybody he fights is orthodox. Whereas Cannonier is going switch stances and throw calf kicks. He'll even blast the hell out of the middle kicks and high kicks, which are going to change the way that Vettori can engage and close the distance on Cannonier. The other thing is Cannonier is usually low volume and doesn't pressure much. If he were to press Vettori and swing heavy -- like we saw Roman Dolidze do against Marvin -- he could win a lot of moments, if not hurt Vettori. And I don't think Cannonier will gas out as Dolidze did.
X-factor: Cannonier's kicks. Vettori is regularly heavy in his stance. And I think if Vettori crowds space, that won't allow Cannonier to kick as much as he wants. But if Vettori stays on the outside, I think Cannonier's kicks will pose problems.
Prediction: I think it will be a close fight. I like Cannonier for the win. It's going to end up being a five-round fight. If there is a finish, I think Cannonier is the one who gets the finish. But his kicks and physicality are going to be the deciding factor.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Vettori to win (-115). The main event is an overdue matchup between the two guys at middleweight who can't seem to get past the current and former champs, Adesanya and Whittaker. It's a strange No. 2 contender fight with Alex Pereira moving up a division. However evenly matched they are in rankings and resumes, statistically, they are very different.
The much younger Vettori has a technical striking advantage that should see him putting on a higher pace even into later rounds. Cannonier is more powerful on paper, but Vettori has displayed an iron chin, surviving many rounds of striking with the division's best. Though he's a weathered 29 years of age, his 10-year youth advantage against Cannonier should allow the time on the feet to set up his ground game, where he has a marked advantage.
Parker: Vettori to win; Over 3.5 rounds. In his last six fights, win or lose, Vettori has gone to a decision. Vettori is a very durable fighter who is hard to put away and has an endless gas tank that can spell trouble for most in a 5 round fight. The only area of the fight where Vettori won't have an advantage is in the power department, as his opponent Cannonier, can end a fight with a KO punch. Cannonier can be an inconsistent fighter, as sometimes you don't know which fighter you will get. I liked how Cannonier was more aggressive with his output against Strickland. However, against Vettori, he is going to be on his back leg fighting for all five rounds. Cannonier tends to get hesitant and confused easily if he can't establish his game plan early, and I see that happening here.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Nicolas Dalby vs. Muslim Salikhov
Kuhn: Salikhov to win (-190). Salikhov appears to have multiple paths to victory, with advantages on the feet and the ground. He's the more accurate, powerful and technical striker facing Dalby, who has poor defense and has absorbed four knockdowns to date.
On the ground, Salikhov has spent much more time in control and has better takedown defense should Dalby try to close distance. Parlay Salikhov with Tsarukyan for a small bump in return.
Men's bantamweight: Raoni Barcelos vs. Miles Johns
Kuhn: Johns to win (+190). Despite how good Barcelos looks on paper, Miles Johns looks almost as good. They are similarly accurate, though hesitant strikers, and while Barcelos is slightly more powerful, Johns has a tighter defense.
The ground game reveals more of a mismatch, where Barcelos is one of the better wrestlers on the card. However, Johns has 92% takedown defense, which could allow him to force close rounds on the feet. Despite Barcelos still having an edge, Johns north of +165 offers some value.
Parker: Barcelos to win (-230). Johns has good wrestling and KO power, but cardio has always been an issue. Against Barcelos, that can present an even bigger problem. Barcelos, who at one point was considered one of the best prospects in the division, has had a very up-and-down UFC career thus far. In his upcoming fight against Johns, he should have the advantage everywhere the fight goes. I expect Barcelos to implement calf kicks early to slow down Johns' wrestling ability and striking power. Once he lands those, Johns will throw desperate strikes and eventually find himself in trouble as Barcelos carries KO power.
Men's flyweight: Jimmy Flick vs. Alessandro Costa
Parker: Costa to win (-260). After announcing his retirement following his UFC debut win over Cody Durden, Flick returned to the cage three years later. Unfortunately for Flick, things didn't go as planned, and he was TKO'd in the first round by Charles Johnson. Flick will look to give it one more try against Contender Series Alum Alessandro Costa. Costa is a very dangerous fighter with a 75% finish rate, and I expect Costa to be better than Flick anywhere the fight goes. Unless Flick has the performance of his life, I don't see how he gets it done here.
Heavyweight: Zac Pauga vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Parker: Bukauskas to win (-200). After suffering a brutal knee injury in his fight against Khalil Roundtree, Modestas healed up and returned to the Cage Warriors organization where he earned two wins in a row. On short notice, he returned to the UFC against the heavy favorite Tyson Pedro, where he dominated Pedro for three rounds and won a unanimous decision. Modestas will now be looking for his second UFC win in a row against TUF finalist Pauga. Pauga has KO power and, as we saw in his last fight, has the cardio to go all three rounds. His last fight wasn't overly impressive, and I don't see him being able to hold Modestas up against the cage and control him the way he did Jordan Wright. I like Modestas to keep the fight standing and pick Pauga apart on the feet.
Best bets for PFL Regular Season: Heavyweights and Women's Featherweights
Heavyweight: Ante Delija vs. Maurice Greene
Parker: Delja to win inside the distance; Under 1.5 rounds.
Greene has found success in his ground game, with six of his wins coming by way of submission, and if he is going to pull off the upset against last year's champ Delija, he will have to do that. However, that is much easier said than done, as Delija has excellent grappling skills and even better takedown defense. This will be a tough matchup for Greene, especially since Delija knows he'll need a 1st or 2nd round finish to secure his spot in the playoffs. Delija should have no issue winning this fight, but inside the distance seems like the most likely outcome.
Women's featherweight: Larissa Pacheco vs. Amber Leibrock
Parker: Pacheco to win inside the distance; Under 1.5 rounds. As it stands, Pacheco is a -1100 favorite over the current No. 1 seed Leibrock. A first-round finish would secure Pacheco's spot in the playoffs and No. 1 seed. Since Pacheco will have a sense of urgency and her biggest advantage will be taking the fight to the ground, it wouldn't surprise me if she finished the fight via submission. If the odds on that prop are too high because Pacheco is the sizable favorite, then go under 1.5 rounds.
Women's featherweight: Aspen Ladd vs. Karolina Sobek
Parker: Ladd to win. For Ladd, this is win or go home, and she does not have an easy task in Sobek. Ladd's only way to win here would be to get Sobek to the ground and maintain top position. However, Sobek is a ground specialist, with 75% of her wins coming via submission. Both women need a finish to keep their hopes alive, and when Ladd bull rushes forward, she leaves herself open to get picked apart and taken down. Sobek doesn't threaten much on the striking either, so I will lean Ladd as she should be the physically stronger athlete and able to control from the top.
Heavyweight: Renan Ferreira vs. Matheus Scheffel
Parker: Scheffel to win I'm in disbelief that Ferreira is a -255 favorite over Scheffel. Ferreira has all the tools to be a dominant heavyweight in the PFL, but his fight IQ and lack of urgency keep him from the next level. On top of that, he fades as the fight goes on, and his takedown defense is nonexistent. Scheffel, who is coming off a loss to Bruno Coppelozza, is in the same position he was in last year, where he needs a win to keep his hopes alive. Between the two, Scheffel has the better cardio and the better striking. As long as he doesn't get tagged early, an upset and Scheffel gets it done.