Amanda Nunes looks to start another women's bantamweight title defense streak as she faces first-time UFC title challenger Irene Aldana in the main event of UFC 289 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).
Nunes, No. 1 in ESPN's women's pound-for-pound rankings, beat Julianna Peña to reclaim the title at UFC 277 in July 2022. Aldana, ranked No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is riding a two-fight win streak with wins over Yana Santos and Macy Chiasson, respectively.
In the co-main event, lightweight contenders Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush square off in what could be their path to a shot at reigning division champion Islam Makhachev. Oliveira, ESPN's No. 2 lightweight, lost the title to Makhachev at UFC 280 last October. Dariush, ranked right behind Oliveira, has won his last eight fights.
Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC women's featherweight title challenger and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson to get her perspective on the matchups in the main event and co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Women's bantamweight: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana
Megan Anderson, former UFC women's featherweight
How Nunes wins: Utilize her range and avoid a firefight in the pocket with Aldana. Aldana is sound defensively, but she still has that willingness and power to stand in the pocket and trade. I don't think Nunes will want to do that with her. I see her engaging in the grappling aspect a lot more. Aldana's grappling isn't bad, but in her last fight it was evident that she still has some areas to grow there. And in Nunes's last fight, she really showed she does have the cardio for a high-pace, grappling-heavy fight.
How Adana wins: She can't let Nunes set the pace. Nunes makes reads early, but Aldana can prevent that by mixing up combinations and mixing in leg kicks -- she does have the tendency to throw the same combinations throughout the fight. If she can be less predictable, I think she can give Nunes issues.
For more on Andersons's breakdown on Aldana: How Irene Aldana can pull off an upset of Amanda Nunes at UFC 289.
X-factor: Nunes switching stances. We had never seen her fight primarily from the orthodox stance, but in the first fight against Julianna Peña, Nunes spent the majority of that fight from southpaw stance. Even though she went on to lose that fight, Nunes showed that she still carries that same power, especially in her right hand. I could see her trying to switch stances to throw off a striker as talented as Aldana.
Prediction: It's hard to pick against Nunes with her body of work. I think Aldana does have a tiny path to victory, but I have to pick Amanda.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Nunes to win (-330) for parlays, lean inside the distance prop. The women's MMA GOAT is now refreshed and re-motivated. Her performance numbers have always been stellar but considering they were earned while continuously facing top talent, only makes them more impressive.
Aldana is no slouch in standup striking but, at a distance, Nunes has some advantages with her ability to inflict damage at range. In the ground game, Nunes will have an even greater advantage. Aldana has learned good takedown defense, but if the fight goes to the mat, Nunes has plenty of control experience and submission threats. Nunes can finish this in any position given enough time.
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. Aldana is a completely different fighter than Nunes' originally scheduled opponent, Peña. Peña leads with her wrestling, while Aldana is a technical boxer with good combinations and knockout power. If she can prevent Nunes from taking her down, she could make this a competitive fight.
I think this fight will go similarly to Nunes' fight against Germaine de Randamie, another technical kickboxer with power. Expect Nunes to use her striking to close the distance and take the fight to the mat where she will have the grappling advantage. The fight against de Randamie went the distance with Nunes winning by unanimous decision. We are getting great odds at over 2.5 rounds and based on Nunes's recent performances (three of her last four wins by decision), this seems like a strong value play.
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush
How Oliveira wins: Maintain his striking range. He can't let Dariush get ahold of him, because his wrestling and grappling style is similar to Makhachev, and we know how that fight ended. Oliveira has to make Dariush respect that range. Sit down on his punches, but stick and move. Dariush, with his unorthodox style, is dangerous on the feet, but Oliveira has the cleaner, more powerful strikes.
How Dariush wins: Forward pressure. Dariush is good at identifying which style works best against an opponent. He can move forward or back up and look for counters. I think pressure will work best against Oliveira because he doesn't necessarily fight his best going backward. Put him against the fence and look for takedowns to use that smothering ground-and-pound.
X-factor: Even though Dariush's wrestling style looks like a game-ender for Oliveira, the x-factor is always Oliveira's jiu-jitsu. He is a game-changer when it comes to snatching submissions.
Prediction: Dariush wins it. He's going to smother Oliveira, grab ahold of him, and drag him into deep water. I see Dariush being able to put on a clinic.
Betting analysis
Parker: Dariush to win (-150). Dariush is a world-class grappler, a fantastic wrestler, and carries tremendous power in his hands. He is a nightmare matchup for Oliveira. Dariush is exceptionally durable and has no issue taking a shot to deliver a knockout. Oliveira's only path to victory is to either rock Dariush (which I don't expect) or to take his back in a scramble -- but Dariush is one of the smartest fighters in the game. I think Dariush drops Oliveira and finishes him by submission.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt
Parker: Fugitt to win (+165). Malott is a prospect on the rise and with a 100 percent finish rate in his wins. And Fugitt has an 88 percent finish rate. So this could be a strong candidate for fight of the night. It's surprising to see Malott as -200 favorite with only two UFC fights on his resume. This is a risky fight for Malott, who has only been out of the first round one time in his entire career and has a tendency to unload the gas tank. Fugitt is very durable and has fought higher-level competition. At +165 odds I am going to roll the dice on Fugitt. If he can weather the early storm of Malott and get out of the first round, his cardio will get the win in the later rounds.
Middleweight: Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Eryk Anders
Kuhn: Anders to win (+120). There's upset potential in this matchup, with Anders' ability to grind out rounds on the feet or on the mat. Statistically, he matches up evenly with Barriault on the feet, but Anders has more power in his strikes. And he has a wet blanket approach to clinching. All of that combined with the higher-level competition Anders has faced in the UFC makes taking him at even or plus money seem like a worthy play.
Middleweight: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Chris Curtis
Parker: Imavov to win (-145). Curtis can change a fight at any moment with his knockout power, but as we have seen, when he doesn't land, he tends to get outpointed. I believe that's what we will see here with the output and volume of Imavov. Imavov has never been knocked out in his career, I don't think it starts now with Curtis. I believe Imavov wins a hard-fought decision over Curtis.
Women's flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Kuhn: Maverick to win (-300). I've long emphasized the importance of significant age differentials in fight matchups, and Maverick will own an eight-year "youth advantage" here against Jasudavicius. In addition, Maverick's standup game is vastly superior to that of Jasudavicius.
The ground game is the only path to victory for Jasudavicius, but Maverick has faced and survived far better talent. It may stretch the fight to a decision, but Maverick should be doing more damage round to round.