Former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones makes his highly anticipated heavyweight debut this weekend as he challenges former interim champion Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight title at UFC 285. The event takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ and early prelims at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN+).
Jones has not fought since 2020, when he successfully defended the 205-pound title against Dominick Reyes. Gane, ranked No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings, earned a third-round knockout over Tai Tuivasa in his last fight. He lost to Francis Ngannou in his previous heavyweight title shot.
In the co-main event, women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will go for her ninth consecutive title defense when she takes on Alexa Grasso.
Shevchenko, ranked No. 2 in ESPN's women's pound-for-pound rankings, defeated Taila Santos via split decision in her last fight. Grasso, ranked No. 7 in the women's flyweight division, has won four fights in a row, with her most recent victory coming by unanimous decision against Viviane Araujo.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Erik Nicksick to get his perspective on the main event and UFC women's strawweight fighter Angela Hill for her perspective on the co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Heavyweight title fight: Jon Jones vs. Cyril Gane
Erik Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Jones wins: For Jones, it's quite easy. There's a huge gap in skill set in the obvious: wrestling. Since Gane fought Francis Ngannou, whom I coach, the only fight we've seen from Gane was against Tai Tuivasa, and there was no wrestling. Jones will have to go after that and see if Gane has worked on his wrestling. And I think Jones should implement it early, because it gives him a clear path to victory if Gane's wrestling just isn't up to par. Doing that would help his striking as well. After he scores a takedown, then he will be able to feint that level change.
When preparing Ngannou to fight Gane, our game plan was that when Ngannou scored the takedowns, he'd look to knee slice (a way to pass guard from the top) or staple that bottom leg (keep Gane's leg on the mat so he can't get up), something Jones does well especially with his anatomy. It's going to be important for Gane to not only defend the takedown but also to have good and efficient routes to get up, so he's not just laying there taking damage or watching the rounds get salted away.
How Gane wins: Attacking the lower legs with calf kicks. Jones can put on all this weight, but it's probably going to be all in the upper body and thighs. His lower extremities, like the calves, probably didn't gain a lot more muscle. It's predicated on movement, I think it's important for Gane to start working that lower leg and that oblique kick. Hell, the both of them will probably oblique kick each other to death. After working on Jones' lower extremities, Gane should work his way back up the body, which is similar to what he did against Derrick Lewis.
X factor: Which version of Jones is going to show up? That three years off, plus the move up to heavyweight with all those new pounds should be considered. Jones has a tendency to be a snake charmer. Gane can't get lulled to sleep and get behind on points. Jones can slow the pace down and out-technique opponents, but he can also play with his food at times. That's not a good idea to do with someone like Gane.
Prediction: When this fight was announced, I picked Jones right away, just because of his wrestling pedigree. And I still wouldn't be surprised if Jones came out and just single-legged this dude, then kept him down and wrestled him. But because Jones has been out three years and Gane has been more active, I'm leaning toward Gane being able to find a way to get a finish in this fight. I just have this weird, gut feeling that he will be able to catch Jones with something. I almost think it will be a come-from-behind win, as well. The adversity that Gane faced in the Ngannou fight might be the reason he's able to get through that fire.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Jones to win (-170). Jones is no stranger to facing dangerous strikers, and he has made a career of frustrating opponents with his diverse, long-range attacks. Notably, he uses more leg kicks than any fighter on the card, though Gane ranks second on that list. So beyond lots of leg kicks, the story here is Gane's more dangerous striking versus Jones' dominant ground game.
Jones often fights moving backward, then uses the clinch to get opponents down. Gane's takedown defense of 56% doesn't seem durable enough to stop the inevitable. And once on the ground, the metrics lean strongly toward Jones. Normally, that would be enough to back a mildly priced favorite like Jones, but the pile of uncertainties urges some caution. Let the main event just be the icing on the cake for your evening.
Women's flyweight title fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso
Angela Hill, UFC women's strawweight fighter
How Shevchenko wins: She shouldn't rush the takedowns. That was her main faux pas in the last one, which is why people think Taila Santos beat her. She rushed a few takedowns against the fence and pulled Santos on top of her a couple of times. Shevchenko needs to be patient, like when it comes to forward pressure and not rushing predictably. Grasso has good counters. When she steps back, her right hand comes out really fast. Shevchenko needs to draw out Grasso's straight punches, avoid getting clipped on the way in and then go for those takedowns. She has an advantage in the wrestling department. As long as she gets Grasso down and gets on top, she can get a finish or just control for most of a round.
How Grasso wins: Grasso has to level change on her combos because as I mentioned above, Shevchenko will be looking for that takedown. Grasso can't be too content against the cage. A lot of times, she gets pushed up against the wall and hangs out there for a bit. That's the perfect time for Shevchenko to set her up with wall trips and takedowns. Same thing for the canvas. She can't be flat against the floor, just holding guard trying to punch, because Shevchenko will pass and get ahead of her in a scramble if there is one. Grasso can throw some kicks in there, but she has to be wary of Shevchenko's inside leg kicks; she uses those to take away a lot of straight boxing, which is Grasso's strength.
X factor: Whenever Shevchenko has a hard fight, she comes back 10 times more violent and aggressive. Because of that adversity, I think she will be even better on the ground and on the feet. I think she's going to try to finish the fight early. Like when she had that tough fight against Jennifer Maia, then she came out and smoked Jessica Andrade in the next fight after everyone was thinking she might have a weakness on the ground. The X factor is like Shevchenko's pettiness. She gets so angry when people doubt her that she comes out so much better.
Prediction: Shevchenko wins. Maybe she gets that mounted crucifix again and finishes by TKO. I'd say maybe in the second or third round.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Over 2.5 Rounds (-135). We've seen Shevchenko lose to only the best of the best, but we've also seen her barely squeak by a fresh contender. Grasso appears to have the boxing to hang with the champ but hasn't fared as well on the ground. Shevchenko might test the standup game, but a young and durable opponent isn't likely to go down early. Despite the steep odds, taking Grasso for the upset doesn't have a clear path to victory to bank on. But she should at least put up a good fight, forcing championship rounds.
Parker: Shevchenko by decision (TK). Grasso is a very technical and precise striker with a solid ground game. However, she isn't better than Shevchenko in any aspect. For Shevchenko, this is an opportunity to return to form as long as she doesn't take Grasso too lightly or doesn't lose position in a potential scramble. Considering Grasso is a very talented striker, expect Shevchenko to put Grasso on her back and lean on her ground game.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds (TK). Turner is huge for the weight class and uses his long reach well. He will need to use that reach to keep Gamrot at a distance and prevent takedowns. If the fight does go to the mat, assuming it will at some point as Gamrot is relentless with his takedown attempts, Turner has shown a very high level of jiu-jitsu off his back both defensively and offensively. When you have two fighters who are known for finishes, sometimes there's hesitancy early in the fight as neither wants to make the first mistake. I believe that is what will happen here.
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
Parker: Nickal by submission (TK). Bo Nickal is the heaviest favorite on the card and rightfully so. As such, taking him to just win is an outrageous bet to make. However, taking Nickal to win by submission is a prop that I had to jump on. In his last two fights on Dana White's Contender Series, Nickal won by submission, and I have no reason to believe this fight won't end the same way. Pickett is coming off back-to-back losses by finish and 38% of his losses have come by submission. Nickal by submission is the play to make here.
Men's bantamweight: Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones
Kuhn: Trevin Jones to win (+155), Fight Does Not Go the Distance (TK). There are several close matchups with live underdogs. An intriguing one is Jones, who will likely get involved in a slugfest with Garbrandt. Despite Garbrandt's impressive run to a title, his recent history has shown a lack of defense and a vulnerable chin. Also consider that Jones will tower over Garbrandt, who has one of the less favorable reach-to-height ratios of any former UFC champion. Jones' range could allow him to land first in an otherwise evenly matched fight. A 40% kicker is a decent return for a coin-clip fight.
Middleweight: Derek Brunson vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Kuhn: Dricus Du Plessis to win (-230). I've supported Brunson as a grinder to win bigger fights than this, but upsetting Du Plessis, who has a 10-year youth advantage, is a tall ask. Brunson has the better wrestling credentials, but his six knockdowns to date are a liability against an aggressive and accurate kickboxer in Du Plessis.
Du Plessis has actually performed well on the ground, despite being known for his striking base. He's able to pour on volume and proved he can dig deep in an exhausting fight against Darren Till. Thankfully, this is just three rounds.