Stephen Thompson will make his first Octagon appearance of 2022 as he goes head to head with Kevin Holland in the main event of UFC Fight Night at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida, on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).
Thompson, ranked No. 8 in ESPN's welterweight rankings, is looking to get back on track after losing his last two fights. Holland will be making his fourth Octagon appearance of the year. He lost via first-round submission to Khamzat Chimaev in September.
This event will be the UFC's annual "Fight Like Hell" Night, which is dedicated to the Stuart Scott Memorial Cancer Research Fund. The campaign was established in honor of Scott, a former ESPN personality and avid MMA fan, who died of cancer in 2015. Viewers can support the campaign with donations to the V Foundation for Cancer Research by going here.
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA X Factory coach Marc Montoya to get his perspective on the matchup. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
Marc Montoya, MMA X Factory coach
How Thompson wins: Thompson is close to being 40. As fighters age, their power goes away before their speed and reactions will. "Wonderboy" has a style that's good for an older fighter because he's elusive. But any time these guys start to get into their late 30s and beyond, there is usually a speed differential. Chris Gutierrez vs. Frankie Edgar was a good example of that. There's such a speed differential at this age. Thompson can't get flat-paneled on the cage. If he can maintain his stance and still exit off the cage on 45-degree angles, that's good. But if he gets flat on the cage, there's going to be potential for him to get hit with something big. If I'm in his camp, I'm saying, "We're going to keep doing what we're doing, but with all the tools you have, we have to be able to gain respect in that cage." He has to own the cage because if you let Holland do it, and push you around for 25 minutes, that's scary. He'll eventually find you.
How Holland wins: The cool part about this fight is that it's five rounds. I think Holland will have trouble finding Wonderboy in the first couple of rounds, but if he would check his ego just slightly -- and I love the guy, I think he's awesome -- and do a little cage wrestling to slow Thompson down, eventually he finds him. Holland is good on the ground, so it would be a mistake not to blend some of that in. Maintain that pressure, force Thompson onto the back foot, then hit him on those exits. If Thompson doesn't exit on an angle, then he's exiting into something from an up-and-coming stud who has a long reach and uses it well.
X-factor: Wonderboy's age. There are outliers, but I always say the prime age in MMA is the late 20s into the early 30s.
Prediction: Holland beats him. I think he might hurt Thompson on the feet and potentially something happens on the ground after that. "Wonderboy" is a pioneer and the sport loves him, but I think Holland is going to win.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Pass, over 1.5 rounds (-265). This will be a tricky striking matchup if Thompson keeps things standing, which is his preference. Both men have been stifled only by excellent wrestlers, but if anyone has the wrestling advantage here, it's Holland. However, we'll likely see extended periods on the feet, and both men will be tested by the accurate striking of the other.
Holland will be the aggressor, but Thompson has made a career of counterstriking while evasively circling. We could see a lot of that early on while Holland works to close the distance. Thompson has the higher knockdown rate and will be a threat throughout, but Holland's pace could win the rounds.
I liked Holland as a dog early on, but the odds have flipped and his price continues to increase. Expect a close matchup early on while they feel things out, and just take the over 1.5 rounds for a parlay pairing with another favorite.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Parker: Dos Anjos to win by decision (-135). Dos Anjos is a high IQ fighter and knows the best chance for Barberena is if he stands in front of him and turns the fight into a brawl. Dos Anjos won't do that. He will have a major advantage once the fight hits the floor, and believe me, it will. Dos Anjos has no reason to make this fight risky if he doesn't have to.
Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
Parker: Hermansson to win (-190). Hermansson is a terrible matchup for Dolidze. The grappling between the two may cancel out, but the striking advantage, based on their last couple of fights, goes to Hermansson. He does a good job of constantly moving and making himself a hard target to hit. Meanwhile, Dolizde is usually flat-footed and just throws power shots. I think this could be a good lesson for Dolizde, but the experience of Hermansson and his newly improved striking should get him to the finish line in this one.
Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus
Kuhn: Anders to win (+175) For an underdog stab, look at Eryk Anders, although he's historically been hit or miss. Despite a losing record in the UFC, Anders has faced tough talent and even took Lyoto Machida, a former champion, the distance in a five-round split decision (in Brazil, no less!). But this fight is less about strength of schedule, and almost entirely about positioning.
Daukaus has been a submission ace, taking his wins almost exclusively by chokes. And Anders is certainly susceptible to submissions. But with 75% takedown defense and almost no threat of striking from Daukaus, Anders should have some time to work his hands while his opponent is in desperate pursuit of a takedown. The more time the fight spends on the feet, the better the chance that Anders tests the chin of Daukaus.
Lightweight: Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese
Kuhn: Diakiese to win (-330). These two fighters appear to be on opposite career trajectories, and Johnson appears on my naughty list for being one of four fighters on the card who has eaten over one thousand head strikes in his UFC career. Johnson is 1-5 since 2019, while Diakiese is 4-2 and took the current No. 6-ranked lightweight, Rafael Fiziev, the distance in a recent Fight of the Night.
On paper, they match up similarly in terms of career striking metrics, yet Diakiese has been more effective on the ground. There are enough statistical advantages, combined with a seven-year youth advantage, that make Diakiese likely to boost his record.