Calvin Kattar looks to work his way back up the UFC men's featherweight rankings as he takes on rising prospect Arnold Allen in a main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
Kattar, ranked No. 9 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a split-decision loss to Josh Emmett in June. Allen, ranked just ahead of Kattar in ESPN's rankings, is on a nine-fight win streak in UFC and has not lost a professional bout since June 2014. He earned a first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in his last appearance in the Octagon.
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA coach Danny Castillo to get his perspective on the matchup. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen
Danny Castillo, Team Alpha Male MMA coach
How Kattar wins: Kattar has an amazing chin, and we've seen that in several five-round fights against top competition. He's going to still be there late and still be getting after it in the late, championship rounds. He's an awesome front runner, meaning he leads the dance extremely well if he's able to establish his pace and his momentum early. He has good boxing, and he's not looking for much else if that's what's given to him. Allen is a southpaw, so this is classic orthodox vs. southpaw in that Kattar has to stay outside of the lead leg. If he stays on the outside of Allen's lead leg, that right cross is going to be there.
How Allen wins: Allen is young and he's faster. He's coming off a huge win in his own backyard, so he has momentum. And that win was against Dan Hooker, who has a similar body type to Kattar. He's going to be confident. Kattar hasn't really faced a true southpaw in his career, and I don't know if his camp has any for him to train with. That's going to be interesting. If Allen can come out and establish his dominance early, maybe he can even get Kattar out of there late, although Kattar is very durable. Kattar is heavy on that lead leg, and Allen uses lateral movement. The calf kick might be there, since Kattar is so heavy out front.
Potential X Factor: I would say Kattar's experience in five-round fights against high-level opponents. His last four fights have been five rounds against Dan Ige, Max Holloway, Giga Chikadze and Josh Emmett. But that five rounds can turn into a variable, because all of that starts to eventually wear you down.
Prediction: Allen, probably by decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Pass, over 1.5 rounds (-455) or over 2.5 rounds (-250) for parlays. This is a tossup by the betting line, and the numbers are similarly tight. On paper, Allen gets some performance edges that could sway the fight his way. However, Kattar has (arguably) had a tougher strength of schedule, which includes a five-round drubbing at the hands of former division champ Max Holloway, which is dragging down many of his striking metrics.
Given how tight this looks, and how durable each man has been, we're likely headed for a close decision. The matchup projections still lean slightly in favor of Kattar, but not enough to discount Allen's ability to score well on the cards. It's best to assume this will not be settled in the first few rounds.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Tim Means vs. Max Griffin
Kuhn: Griffin to win (-185). The co-main event brings a deep sample size from two fighters who have logged hours in the Octagon. They have 16 knockdowns scored between them, but at rates that are not very different than the UFC average.
Means has faced big names, but a lot of his recent victories came against fighters on their way out of the UFC. At 38, he's absorbed more head strikes in his career than any fighter on the card outside of the legendary Andrei Arlovski.
Griffin stacks up favorably in a variety of key metrics and he is more likely to be the one in control if the fight goes to the mat.
Middleweight: Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore
Parker: Fremd to win (-160). In his UFC debut, Fremd showed us a sample of what he is capable of. He showed he is well-rounded with incredible durability. Now, he gets a full camp to take on Gore, who has lost his last two fights. Gore has the power to end a fight with one shot, but at this point, I think it's pretty obvious that Gore is a little too green for UFC competition. Not only does he have minimal experience, but he also showed no improvement in his last fight as he was finished in the first round. I believe Fremd has more ways to win in this fight and as long as he stays away from the one-shot power of Gore, Fremd should take this.
Middleweight: Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze
Parker: Hawes to win (-170). Hawes, in my opinion, has the potential to be a champion one day. For that to happen he has to improve his cardio, and his approach to striking -- he's too willing to take a punch in order to give one. He's had some strong performances, but as the fight goes on he tends to take his foot off the gas. Fortunately here, Dolidze isn't known for his cardio either.
Hawes has to keep the fight standing so he can avoid Dolidze's patented leg locks. Hawes will be the superior wrestler here, and should be able to keep the fight standing where his boxing can get it done.
Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima
Kuhn: De Lima to win (-230). Although heavyweights make notoriously volatile picks, De Lima has a clear path to victory when he takes on Arlovski, a former division champ. The Brazilian is the greater knockout threat, facing one of the few UFC fighters to reach 10 knockdowns received without being released from the promotion. On the feet, they both willingly engage, but De Lima is more dangerous against Arlovski, who is pushing age 44.
De Lima's weakness has been on the mat, where he's been submitted in all but one of his six UFC losses. But Arlovski is a minimal risk for takedowns and hasn't scored a submission since 2005.
The wild card is stamina. With big older guys expected to put up a shootout, Arlovski has at least proven he can survive and still push the pace in later rounds. However, there's still some value in De Lima to win, and you can get his knockout prop at plus money.