UFC 266 features a number of must-see matchups. Brian Ortega will face Alexander Volkanovski in a bout that was supposed to happen in March, but was delayed after Volkavnoski tested positive for COVID-19. Six months (and a full season of The Ultimate Fighter) later, Volkanovski (22-1) and Ortega (15-1) will square off at UFC 266 in Las Vegas.
It's a fascinating matchup in that Volkanovski has asserted himself as nothing short of world class, following two close decision victories over Max Holloway. And Ortega is a bit of a mystery, as he has fought only once in the past two years but has changed his entire camp during that time.
Before the two of them step into the Octagon, we'll also get to see a rematch nearly two decades in the making. When Nick Diaz and Robbie Lawler met for the first time at UFC 47 -- and Diaz scored a thrilling one-punch knockout -- many would have guessed they'd end up fighting again. No one would have guessed, however, it would take this long to happen. And yet, here we are. Diaz (26-9) and Lawler (28-15) will meet on Saturday, 17 years after their first encounter in April 2004.
Diaz, of Stockton, California, has not fought in more than six years, primarily due to a suspension he received after testing positive for traces of marijuana in 2015. Lawler, who fights out of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, is looking to snap a four-fight skid that dates back to 2017.
Who has the edge in the 145-pound title fight and Lawler-Diaz? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Din Thomas, veteran coach and UFC analyst
On Ortega-Volkanovski:
This fight comes down to game planning, and Volkanovski is one of the best game planners in the world today. He is one of the most intelligent fighters. He game plans so well, while you're trying to figure him out, he's already racking up points implementing his plan. However, Brian Ortega in his last fight against Chan Sung Jung showed he can actually game plan too. Prior to that, he wasn't really a game planner. His striking was underrated and he had a lot of skill, but he was just down to fight. And he was very good at that. But against the Korean Zombie, he was able to game plan, be tactful and calculated.
Now, I don't know if that's going to be enough to beat Volkanovski, because that's what Volkanovski does. He makes a game plan and he sticks to it. This is a tough pick, but I'm going to go with Volkanovski. Yes, Ortega showed the ability to game plan, but the Korean Zombie isn't a strategist, either. He's a really tough guy and a great fighter, but not a strategist. I think when Ortega gets in there with Volkanovski, he'll have to match strategy, and I don't think he wins that battle. And I just don't think he has a chance to finish him.
Volkanovski will do his homework and Ortega doesn't have good enough wrestling. He's able to get people down because he times his shots well, but his wrestling isn't great overall, and you need great wrestling to get Volkanovski down.
On Diaz-Lawler:
This fight really comes down to Lawler and how much fun he's having -- how much he wants to be in there. We've seen Rob have ups and downs, and I think some of that was due to him going through the motions and not necessarily wanting to be there. In terms of Diaz, we don't really know what he's got. The only thing we can base it on is his brother, Nate -- they have similar styles. They always show up to fight. Nick hasn't fought in six years, but if he comes out fighting like his brother, which is highly expected, we know he's not going to have a lot of movement and he's going to be doing a lot of taunting to get Robbie to fight emotionally. And if Robbie stands in front of him for too long, Nick can eventually catch him, wear him out and get the win.
But this is why it comes back to how much fun Robbie is having. When Robbie is moving his feet and bouncing around, he's a dangerous dude. When he's working his angles, he's a dangerous dude. He's got underrated defensive skills. When Rafael dos Anjos and even Colby Covington started teeing off on Robbie, they barely hit him. The speed of RDA and Colby just gave Robbie problems. With Nick, he doesn't have to worry about that. Nick is going to be in his face the whole time, stalking him. He's not going to be changing levels and giving him a bunch of different looks. That will give Robbie an opportunity to get back to the old Robbie, where we saw him bouncing and moving. If he can do that, get on his bicycle and behind his jab, I think he can beat Diaz.
Marc Montoya, Factory X
On Ortega-Volkanovski:
The interesting part about this fight is Ortega is going to have the length and the range, and Ortega is superior in his grappling and jiu-jitsu. If you're Volkanovski, you can't hang out in long range because of the disadvantage. He has shorter limbs, so he has to sit in that hook, uppercut, elbow, knee range all night. He'll be faster there. But the danger of sitting in that middle range is if Ortega snatches the front head lock and gets your neck, you've got major problems. I think Volkanovski has to split that longer range where Ortega has really developed his jab and cross, be explosive on the inside and then exit on an angle without getting caught up in any type of clinch or headlock. I also think because Ortega is taller, Volkanovski has to go to the body. If he's attacking to the body first, he can then go upstairs, rather than lunging in from a distance and reaching in, getting off-balance -- all that stuff.
In order to get it to the mat, I think Ortega will have to threaten with a submission. He's not going to run a series of wrestling moves on Volkanovski, because he's just too hard to get down from that position. Ortega also has an opportunity to throw kicks and knees. With Volkanovski being shorter than him and probably attacking the body, Ortega can find opportunities to throw knees and potentially catch him coming in.
It's an interesting matchup and hard one to call for me. I think Volkanovski has shown against one of the best strikers in the division -- Max Holloway -- he can keep a fight like that close and do what it takes to win. The fight probably favors Volkanovski because of his experience and success against a long striker like Max, but only slightly. Ortega is so dangerous at any given moment.
On Diaz-Lawler:
We just haven't seen Nick fight in so long. Is he close to what he used to be, or has he completely fallen off and won't be what we remember? Lawler is always going to have his same style. Bulldog style, get in your face, throw bombs. He's pretty good everywhere.
The layoff could be an advantage for Nick. All those bumps and bruises, that training stuff he had, all of that stuff is gone. The cumulative effect of it. There is also the newness of it. I think Nick could feel that beginner's spirit again because he hasn't fought for so long. I think you'll see the same thing out of Diaz you used to see, and Lawler won't change, either. Realistically, it comes down to whether Lawler can catch him early, because if he doesn't, I think Nick's cardio will sustain him and wear Robbie down. The first half of the fight favors Robbie and the second half favors Nick. Both of those Diaz brothers have shown if you keep them in the mix, they find ways to win.
James Krause, Glory MMA
On Ortega-Volkanovski:
This probably ends with a decision for Volkanovski. He's just so hard to hurt. He's so durable. Hard to take down. Hard to wrestle. He has great cardio. Hits hard. I know Ortega looked really good in his last fight, but man, it's hard to bet against somebody who beat Max Holloway twice. I know he's not known as a huge finisher, but Alex is just there for 25 minutes. He's really the epitome of a well-rounded fighter.
I don't think Ortega is as well-rounded, but he has a higher danger factor. He's definitely not as polished as Volkanovski. I feel like Ortega's game plan never changes -- he doesn't have one. He just fights. I never see any strategic work behind it. It's not that he necessarily needs that, because he can just snatch your neck up, but Eugene Bareman and that camp Volkanovski trains with, they like to be very specific in how they train. I could see Volkanovski using calf kicks, like he did against Holloway. I don't see Volkanovski trying to wrestle him.
Ortega did impress me by outstriking Jung, but Volkanovski is just too durable. I don't see Ortega winning the majority of a 25-minute fight.
On Diaz-Lawler:
The biggest thing here is that we don't know anything. We know nothing. The first fight is irrelevant at this point. Nick was partying hard for years. Robbie has deteriorated so much in his recent fights. It's just hard to tell where these guys are gonna be. Those Diaz brothers -- it wouldn't surprise me if Nick came back and beat the s--- out of Robbie, but then it wouldn't surprise me if Robbie knocked him out. Nothing can surprise me in this fight.
If Nick Diaz is the same Nick Diaz we know, he's going to put a ton of volume on you, but at times, be hittable. And that's a problem against a guy like Lawler. The thing about the Diaz brothers is they don't go away and they hit deceivingly hard. Anybody I've ever talked to about Nick, they say he hits so hard. And I'm like, 'Dude, it doesn't look like he hits hard at all.' But he's knocking people out and I think it's just the barrage of punches, the body work, breaking you down over time and then he gets the kill. He could be a real problem for Robbie, but if Robbie hits you, you've got big problems.
Obviously, Robbie just needs to do what Robbie does and be aggressive. Whoever pushes forward in the middle is probably going to win this fight. If I'm Robbie, I'm looking to maybe draw those first two pitter-pat jabs out of Diaz and counter over the middle. Or throw that lead right hook that he has. But this is such a weird fight and it's impossible to predict.
Duane Ludwig, Ludwig MMA
On Ortega-Volkanovski:
It's a great fight. Volkanovski is going to have to press Ortega and try to get inside his longer, straight shots. But of course, once he gets inside, he's putting himself in Brian's world of jiu-jitsu. I think it's going to be a tough fight for both guys. Volkanovski has to outwork him on the inside, but be careful there. Ortega needs to keep moving, stay at a distance, and time Volkanovski's entries with some shots and if he gets too close, go for a guillotine. Volkanovski is going to have to hit some leg kicks to try to slow Ortega down. At the end of the night, I think it's going to be Ortega catching him in the guillotine, let's say Round 3.
If I'm Ortega watching Volkanovski's fights against Holloway, I'm looking at his entries. I'm looking for which way he comes in, to get past Ortega's distance. This is a little bit of insight -- I've seen footage of TJ Dillashaw and Ortega spar, and I'm impressed with Ortega. He does a great job of understanding the rhythm of a fight and lulling an opponent to sleep. Makes you think he's taking a break and then he explodes and catches people when they're not expecting it. I think he wins, but Volkanovski is going to put a lot of pressure on him and make him earn it.
On Diaz-Lawler:
The first time they fought, I didn't know who Nick Diaz was. I thought the UFC was trying to build up Lawler. I was like, 'Oh, Lawler is going to smoke this jiu-jitsu guy.' And then come to find out, Nick Diaz is Nick Diaz. At that time, I think Nick had seen more southpaws than Robbie had, so Diaz was more prepared for the southpaw vs. southpaw aspect. That threw Lawler off. Plus, he was expecting a jiu-jitsu guy and got punched in the face. He got caught throwing with his hands low. I expect this one to go better for Rob because he's been active -- at least, relative to Diaz -- and he has a better understanding of who he's dealing with.
You never look past a Nick or Nate Diaz. They are as tough as it comes. But so is Robbie Lawler. I don't think he was prepared for the volume of punches Nick threw. Now, he's more experienced with letting the flutter of punches come through and realizing they're not all going to be hard shots, so he doesn't have to overreact to them all. If I was training someone for that style, I'd say, 'Look, three-quarters of these punches are just looking to be touch punches, so you don't have to overreact to them. Exchange a couple and as Nick starts throwing more, either clinch or back out and play the inch game where you try to time him stepping towards you.' Because both Diaz brothers can have lazy defensive habits, because they're so tough, they're OK taking a couple shots. I would take advantage of that. Touch, move -- touch, move again. Hit him with more power shots, then he can add up his 50 to 70 percent shots.