Conor McGregor has been in this position before. Almost exactly.
In March 2016, Nate Diaz stopped McGregor in the second round at UFC 196. Five months later, at UFC 202, McGregor beat Diaz by majority decision after making the necessary adjustments.
McGregor will meet Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 264 on Saturday in Las Vegas. This is a trilogy fight. At UFC 257 in January, nearly six years after McGregor had knocked out Poirier in their first meeting, McGregor was on the wrong end of a knockout, as Poirier finished him in the second round. Six months later, McGregor is attempting to do the same thing he did against Diaz and get a victory back.
"[McGregor needs] a few tweaks," said Jackson Wink MMA striking coach Brandon Gibson. "That first round [against Poirier in January] was very competitive. We've seen Conor bounce back well after defeat. I think the Diaz bouts really show that."
The winner between Poirier and McGregor this weekend will likely be the first challenger for new lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, UFC president Dana White told ESPN. It is a massive fight. McGregor, the biggest draw in MMA history, is trying to get back to the UFC mountaintop after several uneven and inactive years. Poirier has a chance to close out a series victory over a legitimate global superstar en route to a title fight. Many people already consider Poirier the best lightweight in the world.
In their first fight at UFC 178 in September 2014, McGregor starched Poirier in just 1 minute, 46 seconds. Poirier barely had a chance to get any offense going. In the rematch, Poirier staved off McGregor's powerful punches while losing the first round on all three judges' scorecards, but continued his onslaught of calf kicks in the second round, which led to the finish at 2:33 of that round.
Can McGregor make the adjustments to win the rubber match? Or will Poirier continue his momentum with the biggest victory of his career? ESPN asked several top coaches, analysts and fighters for their breakdowns and predictions.
Editor's note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Chael Sonnen, ESPN analyst and retired MMA fighter
I'm leaning toward Poirier right now, and I reserve the right to change that. A lot of it will be in the approach. If Conor comes in like nice Conor, and he brings the family out and rents the big house and rides around in the Rolls Royce, yeah, I'm going to lean towards Poirier. If Conor really has buckled down, I suppose I'm still picking Poirier. But it's going to be a long, drawn-out night. It's going to be a long, hard 25 minutes if Conor wants it to be. Conor does have that inside of him. He can pull it out only every now and then -- like all of us. But I think he's going to pull it out that night and make it a hard one.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
I picked Poirier last time. I went out on a limb. I think I'm going to go out on a limb again and pick Conor this time. I'm actually rooting for the guy. I really do enjoy watching him fight. I think there's so much to gain by watching him fight. His striking is absolutely beautiful. He does a great job as far as really understanding his geography and the cage control, which is very important. He'll get you basically to feel like you're within range. But watch his movement and his feet.
My dad always made me watch Barry Sanders. Not what Sanders did in relation to the other players, but watch what he does with his feet. Conor makes you feel like you're within range in certain elements. He's OK getting hit at the tip of his chin or the tip of his nose. He understands his distance and his range better than anybody. He's like, "OK, you might graze me or touch me here, but I know now I can reach you here." He's truly one of the best when it comes to that, in really understanding how to use range and be in and out and get hit minimally while being able to hit you with 100% power.
I think the way for Conor to win is to get Poirier out of there early. If this fight goes long, I think that's where it favors Poirier. When the fight gets more gritty, that's where Poirier begins to shine. I think Conor has to make it a quick night. That's where it favors Conor, in my opinion.
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight contender and ESPN analyst
After rewatching the tape of their second fight, I do feel like Conor definitely has a good chance. I'm going to go for Conor. I think he can do it if he figures out how to defend that leg kick, how to draw it out. If he goes through the proper steps, I feel like he can work around that, because that was really the turning point of the second fight. It was such a drastic moment -- this is where the fight started going to Poirier's side.
I think once you learn how to turn your leg out and time it and step or switch stance, Conor already has the skills required to defend it. He just has to recognize when to do it. I don't think it'll be as big a learning curve. I do think Conor can make the adjustments to negate the calf kick and win the fight. It has to be a finish for Conor. Poirier would outwork him if Conor doesn't finish it.
Mark Henry, Team Frankie Edgar coach
Until McGregor proves that he can go two rounds without his hands dropping and having less movement, I have to say Dustin again. Even in the second fight with Nate, McGregor's hands were still down, and he looked exhausted late. Nate said he fought injured and didn't train too much. If Nate would have poured it on in the fourth, he could have finished him again, but he didn't. That was the only time McGregor has gone five rounds. And that was a sloppy four and five. A lot of people would have taken him out or taken him down.
I do think Conor's wrestling defense got better with the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight. I think that definitely showed. But then again, he quit against Khabib. I give Conor the utmost respect. If he can go five rounds, if he's able to do that, I think he's one of the best fighters that ever fought. It's just getting to the fourth round for me. If Conor won, heck no, I wouldn't be surprised. But I'd have to say 55-45 I give it to Poirier, or 60-40. Just because of the cardio factor.
Stephen Thompson, UFC welterweight contender (via Submission Radio)
McGregor kind of lost something in his last fight. I think it's all the boxing he's doing. He doesn't have that movement anymore that you normally saw, like against Jose Aldo. It was the movement that won that fight. He was kind of standing there against Dustin Poirier, and he took a lot of low calf kicks. That's what settled it, sealed the deal.
[McGregor has] got to get back to moving like a karate guy. He's got to get back to getting on his bike and using that movement, that in-and-out movement, switching sides, playing that game if he's going to go out there and beat him again. He can draw out Dustin Poirier's strikes with his movement. And him being such a good counterpuncher can counter off of that. He's gotta get out of that and get back to his movement. If he can do that, Conor can win.
Brandon Gibson, Jackson Wink MMA striking coach
I went with Conor in the second fight, and I was wrong on that one. I think Conor is going to draw a lot from the crowd in Vegas. I've worked those July International Fight Week main events before, and that's a different kind of energy. I'm sure we're going to see a lot of rowdy Irish fans out there. I'm going to lean towards Conor.
Just like the second Diaz fight, I can see this one going the distance, with both of them having a lot of respect for each other's power. Conor's pressure and volume and range control is going to be the difference in this one. I think Conor is going to edge out a decision. I think there's a lot of factors coming together for McGregor. We've seen him rebound well.
Georges St-Pierre, UFC Hall of Famer and former two-division champion (via Tristar Gym YouTube page)
I think McGregor is very good in rematches. I think he's going to have the victory. I think he's probably going to win in the second round.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready striking coach
If I had to pick one, I might pick Conor. Just because of that guy's will to win and ability to make adjustments. The guy doesn't need money, and that's what I love about Conor. The guy has hundreds of millions in the bank. He just sold shares of Proper Twelve. I don't care if he's making $20 million or $50 million for this fight, he doesn't need that money. He loves the sport. Knowing if he loses this one and loses two out of three to Dustin, all the ridicule he'll receive -- he probably gets more hate mail than anybody else. To put that all on the line and say "I'm willing to take that chance," I love that.
I don't think he takes the trilogy fight if he doesn't believe he can address the problems he faced in January. I've got Conor. I just think he's still so explosive. I think he finishes Poirier. All he needs is a couple of good counters. Dustin is still a little chinny. He can take a punch, but he gets buckled in a lot of these wars, like the Dan Hooker fight. I think Conor is the best finisher in the game when he gets somebody hurt. If Conor knows you're hurt, that guy is a finisher. I like Conor by knockout.
Henry Cejudo, retired former UFC two-division champion
It's not gonna go good for Conor in many ways. I think it's going to go the same way: Poirier is gonna stop him again. McGregor lost his groove. His icebox got wet -- like the Chris Brown song. That was part of his swagger. When you lose that, you can come back to it, but then it's not the same to the other person. It may be the same to you, but it's not going to be the same to the opponent. I think the fight might go to the third round, but I think Poirier is going to stop him again. I don't know how. It might be the kicks again or it might be hands.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA head coach
I'm gonna go with Dustin. I think it will be an uglier fight, but it will go to the later rounds and Dustin is just more durable. Conor does not do well in the later rounds. If it's close, do they maybe give Conor a split decision? Absolutely. It could be. Conor is going to come ready to rock. I just think Dustin is a little more durable. If he doesn't get caught early -- and he did get caught with some big shots early in the last one -- and get put away, then I'm going Dustin.
I just think over time, over the rounds, he gets better. Look at his fights with Dan Hooker, Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje. There are three examples. When Dustin gets pushed in the later rounds, he does better. Every time Conor does, he gets worse.
Firas Zahabi, Tristar Gym head coach (via Tristar Gym YouTube page)
I think Poirier. At 155 [pounds], I think McGregor's power is not exactly what it used to be, and he's got to do five rounds. I think Poirier showed in fight No. 2 that he's smart enough to take McGregor to the later rounds. In Round 1, [Poirier] took a big left, and he took it well. I think psychologically now, Poirier is more ready to take that left hand. He's more aware about it.
I think Poirier is going to take him in Round 3, and he's going to do the same thing he did before. He's gonna kick the leg. He's gonna injure McGregor a little bit on the leg, and then he's going to put the hands on him. It's gonna be a trench war, and Poirier is gonna put him away.
Doug Kezirian, ESPN gambling analyst
I have a lot of faith in Poirier, as I view his all-around game as much more polished, and I know his mind will be in the right place. McGregor is a star for good reason, but I just think his window is closing and the lightweight division is not for him. I see value in Poirier at -125 but I also think over 2.5 rounds at +120 is worth a small play. Poirier will try to wear McGregor down, and that game plan will be enhanced with the larger Octagon. Additionally, Poirier via KO/TKO in Round 4 at 20/1 odds will draw some of my money.