Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event will see a pair of strawweight contenders compete at flyweight in a five-round bout that came together on short notice.
As announced Tuesday, Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) and Michelle Waterson (18-8) will take center stage at the Apex facility in Las Vegas. Former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw was originally supposed to headline the card, but he was forced out of a scheduled fight against Cory Sandhagen due to injury.
Obviously, the circumstances around the new main event aren't ideal, but it's a meaningful matchup nevertheless. Even though it will be fought at 125 pounds, the result will have a big impact on the UFC's 115-pound rankings, where Rodriguez and Waterson are sixth and ninth, respectively.
Who has the edge? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions.
Carla Esparza, UFC strawweight (defeated Waterson in May 2020, defeated Rodriguez in July 2020)
On the feet, I feel Rodriguez definitely has a boxing advantage. Waterson did land a few kicks on me and my leg was black and blue, but Rodriguez has a reach and power advantage.
As far as the wrestling, I could see Waterson taking it to the ground. She has nice throws that I've seen her hit -- it's just a matter of closing that gap, which is difficult because she likes to be at range with her kicks. But if she's able to create that clash of bodies, I could see her taking Rodriguez off her feet.
I don't see Rodriguez as a fighter who likes to extend out and get back to her feet; she's kind of content fighting off her back. Not to say she isn't vicious off her back. Even when you do take her down, she's a very aggressive, violent person. She sliced my eyebrow open with an elbow from there. I've watched all of her fights, and she's always elbowed someone and sliced them open. I don't see this fight ending without some blood.
It's hard, because it's MMA and this could go anywhere, but I'll probably go with Rodriguez. She seems like the hungrier fighter, super vicious.
Jim West, MMA Gold
I think there are two things that could happen here. Marina is pretty long, but she pushes her punches. I don't think Michelle will have a problem dealing with the length of her punches. What I do think could be a problem for her would be the length of her legs, and using her kicks accordingly to keep Michelle off.
Michelle needs to get in close. I believe she'll have a grappling advantage and a clinch advantage, because she's very good at mixing those things up. One big thing could be the movement of Marina, but also if she uses her legs appropriately, meaning those rear attacks, gives the look of a rear teep, anything like that to keep Michelle guessing could play a big factor in the fight.
Now, I'm still going to pick Michelle, because she has good head movement, good footwork and I think she'll be able to circumvent the reach of Marina. You can see Marina pushes her punches from her waist and chest, so Michelle will be able to see those pretty easy. She'll be able to grind it out, and she has a fairly clear advantage on the ground. It won't be easy getting Marina there, but once she does, the advantage will be glaring.
Jessica Penne, UFC strawweight
In her last fight, you could see Marina is getting more comfortable neutralizing people on the ground, and that's what she's going to really need to do against Michelle. Michelle's last fight was a win against my teammate Angela Hill, and I actually think that fight offers a great blueprint for Marina. Angela really utilized the Muay Thai clinch and turned her against the fence anytime Michelle came in with a shot that wasn't assertive. Angela was able to capitalize on that, turn her into the fence and then frame off.
Marina has a solid striking background and is definitely the sharper striker. I think she can utilize her range, keeping her away with her long punches. She likes to throw the low teeps to the thigh; she does that really well. That being said, Michelle has more tools. She's more comfortable in the grappling. She's a high-volume striker. If Michelle can set up her takedowns and go for the legs, instead of looking for the upper-body grappling she did with Angela, she can get a submission or steal a round by taking her down.
I think everyone is really impressed with Marina's last fight, when she beat Amanda Ribas, because she finally found that range and that comfort against a grappler who was looking to take her down. But Michelle really sticks to the game plan very well and the judges like her, so I give her a slight edge. She has the ability to take the fight where she wants to.