UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal will meet for the second time in just nine months on Saturday in the main event of UFC 261 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Of course, even though this is their second meeting in a short amount of time, the circumstances of the fight are drastically different. Usman (18-1) defeated Masvidal (35-14) via unanimous decision at UFC 251 last July, but Masvidal accepted the fight on six days' notice after Usman's original opponent, Gilbert Burns, was pulled from the event. After Usman's last victory, the champ called out Masvidal hoping that this time, he could "break him" as he was unsatisfied with a decision win.
Will a full camp (for both fighters) result in a much different fight? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions.
Aljamain Sterling, UFC bantamweight champion
Masvidal is a very tough dude, been around the block for a while. The only thing that worries me is yes, he's had more time to train, but I don't know if anything necessarily changes. I just think Usman is too good in many of those situations.
While Masvidal is good with his kicks, if he starts kicking like he did in the last fight, I could see him getting taken down the exact same way he did the first time. All Usman has to do is endure a little bit of pain, catch the kick and smother him all over again. I also think things will be a little different when Usman gets a full camp to prepare for him as well. It was a short-notice fight for both guys the first time.
Masvidal has quick hands -- he's knocked out Darren Till, Donald Cerrone, Ben Askren. The guy is unpredictable, but it's hard to bet against Usman at this point. I do think he's coming into his own and giving glimpses of a Georges St-Pierre level. I do think everyone is beatable, but it's Usman's fight to win again.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA
Listen, they can dress this up all they want: Usman's mental game is second to none. He carries an intelligence and intensity in everything he does. And if you think he asked for this fight by accident, give me a break.
If you would have told me Usman was going to drop Gilbert Burns with a jab and then TKO him with hands -- it just shows how intelligent Usman is. He got rocked in that first round. He got clubbed. He collected himself like a true champion and came up with a completely different strategy and won within a matter of two rounds. It reminds me of when Henry Cejudo got beat up by Marlon Moraes in the first round of their title fight. Moraes was whupping him, and Cejudo just made a decision of, "Nope, not today." Kamaru is that same level of champion.
I think Kamaru is going to dominate Masvidal. And, yeah, he might get caught with some shots. If you want to bloody his nose and take credit for that, great, but that first fight was Kamaru at his worst. He did not fight well at all. And people aren't really talking about that. If you look at his body of work, that was just a really off night for him. I think he wants to redeem that with a dominant performance, and I think he'll do exactly that. He's too much for Masvidal -- he just is.
Dan Hardy, UFC welterweight
The smart thing for Masvidal to do is make the most of the short bursts of action he gets within the fight. If you look at the first round of the last one, he was able to get off the fence a few times. When he creates space, he has to attack, and he has to have a varied attack of quite a lot of volume, because the rest of the time he's probably going to be controlled by Usman up against the fence.
For Usman, it's about getting close to Masvidal without taking shots, and the more he does that, the easier it will be in the later rounds to work his jab. My concern for Usman is he's got this new confidence in his striking, because he's just stopped Gilbert Burns, and as we saw in Masvidal's knockout of Darren Till, the longer you give Masvidal space, the more he starts to read your game and beat you up. So, I think Usman needs to take that space away from Masvidal, crowd him against the fence, and if he does want to control him on the ground, he needs to take him away from the fence.
Masvidal's takedown defense is around 75 percent, I think, but up against the fence it's considerably better than that. And he's better at scrambling up from there as well. Masvidal has great elbows on breaks along the fence, and he's used his flying knees throughout his career. If he's aggressive with his takedown defense, if that makes sense, I think he's going to be able to create windows of opportunity where he can hurt Usman.
But realistically, if I saw them fight 10 times, I think Usman wins seven or eight of them, and I like him to win another decision here.
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
I really think it's going to go a lot like the first time. I'm a big fan of how Usman is able to come up with the perfect game plan for everyone he fights -- he never fights the same way twice. He's really good at figuring out what his opponents' weaknesses are. I think that's actually why it's really bad for Masvidal, because now Usman's been able to prepare for him.
Both of them have had a camp now. That's what a lot of people miss when they say, "Masvidal took it on short notice." Usman, having felt Masvidal already, having seen where he was able to catch him and feel where his weaknesses are, I feel Usman always goes back to the drawing board and comes out an improved fighter. I think his boxing is going to look better. I'm expecting him to have even more tricks on the feet that he's improved on after getting caught a couple of times by Masvidal in the first one.
I'd love it to see more foot stomps; I think it's so funny they used the foot stomps in the highlight to promote this rematch. It was a key, though. It showed he was able to put Masvidal on the fence and just score, and I think he'll wear him out that way, even with Masvidal having a full camp. The way he stalks you, and when he hits you, it hurts -- he's really good at pressuring. I don't think people realize when you're in front of someone you know is going to pressure you, it makes you tired just standing in front of them. I'm gonna go with Usman again. Knockout in the fourth round.
Doug Kezirian, ESPN Chalk
I don't see any reason to back Jorge Masvidal, even as a big underdog. Masvidal is here because of hype more than he is because of merit. In their fight last summer, Usman won 14 of the cumulative 15 rounds on the judges' scorecards. Usman has won 17 straight fights and is in the discussion for the greatest all-time welterweight, drawing comparisons to Georges St-Pierre. The main argument for Masvidal is that he did not take this fight on short notice like he did in 2020. However, his team claimed to have been training and sparring plenty, so I don't really buy that rationale.
Now, how do we optimize a favorite of -420? Usman typically goes the distance and has done so in five of his past seven bouts. I will lay the lumber, but -125 via decision sure seems like the logical play. That said, with so much animosity between the fighters, an early finish wouldn't surprise me. The opposite side of +240 for Usman "Inside the Distance" is a good option too.