Conor McGregor is back. After a total of 40 seconds of fight time in 2020, McGregor returns Saturday at UFC 257 to begin the next stage of his career. But unlike his fight last January, his opponent isn't a past-his-prime Donald Cerrone. McGregor will be up against a tough foe in Dustin Poirier, who is coming off a strong performance against Dan Hooker.
The two have met before, with McGregor knocking out Poirier in the first round at UFC 178 in 2014 -- but much has changed for both fighters, personally and professionally, since. Poirier's loss to McGregor slowed him down, but didn't hold him down. He defeated challenger after challenger, on a run that culminated in a victory over Max Holloway to win the UFC interim lightweight championship in 2019. Ultimately, like everyone before him, Poirier fell to Khabib Nurmagomedov.
McGregor used his win over Poirier to launch himself into superstardom. He became a double champion, holding the UFC title at featherweight and lightweight before taking a career turn and boxing, unsuccessfully, against Floyd Mayweather. He then came back to the Octagon in October 2018, belt-less after being stripped due to inactivity, lost to Nurmagomedov, took another year hiatus and then won the aforementioned bout against Cerrone.
And now, with an uncertain future for Nurmagomedov and the UFC lightweight title, McGregor and Poirier look to put on a performance that will set the tone for 2021 and beyond.
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the lightweight fight and what each fighter must do to emerge as a future contender for the title.
The big picture
The main event of UFC 257 is going to be an incredible fight, but to process this bout we need to think about what has already happened. McGregor got the best of Poirier years ago and no matter what, that will weigh heavily on the mindset of both fighters.
Let's start with the key questions: Can Poirier learn from his last fight and make the adjustments? Can he weather the early storm of McGregor? Is Poirier's activity a good thing because he has constant experience? Is McGregor's inactivity a good thing because he has taken minimal damage? Or will McGregor be rusty? Can McGregor manage his energy bar to sustain a high pace and effort for five rounds?
It's going to be a challenge for Poirier to clear his head until he absorbs the first few punches. Once that happens, Poirier will feel that he can take the power and his confidence will start to grow. But right now, in the back of his mind, he knows McGregor hits hard.
If Poirier reflects on the first fight, I think he'll know exchanging with McGregor in the first round is not his best bet, knowing that McGregor is a very dangerous fighter in the beginning. Nate Diaz spent the early minutes getting his timing, getting warmed up, managing the distance. He was blocking punches and eating some leg kicks, but Diaz was out of the range of McGregor's punches so instead McGregor was throwing leg kicks.
There's no complete blueprint to fight McGregor, but the Diaz fights offer an outline: Weather the storm, get his timing, make him miss. He'll then slow down and lose his pop, and that's the time to close the distance, bite down on the mouthpiece, block the combinations and give back. Notice when McGregor's energy bar is down and then attack.
Despite the thoughts of their last fight on his mind, Poirier's confidence must be high. How much does his confidence go up after watching what Max Holloway, whom he beat, did on Saturday? Winning fights, getting the experience of facing top opponents, excelling against the timing of someone like Holloway -- all of this has helped Poirier. He has grown well into the 155-pound weight class. He looks like he belongs there. His boxing is improving. His defense is improving.
Belief in oneself is not a technical skill, but it's immensely important for a fighter.
McGregor also is clearly confident entering this fight. He says he wants to embrace the war, but in the back of his mind, if this goes to deep waters, he's taking a deep breath because that's not where he has the advantage. I think in his heart he wants to get it done right away.
McGregor knows that going five rounds with Poirier isn't ideal. Poirier seems to flourish during the chaos of the fourth and fifth rounds, and that has to be on McGregor's mind. Poirier thrives when he's toe-to-toe with his opponent after both fighters' punches have lost a bit of steam and now it's all about who is pushing harder and who is protecting their chin in the pocket.
McGregor has improved his endurance. I do believe he'll manage to create a sustainable pace so that he doesn't flatline and crumble because his cardio is out. He learned that from the Mayweather and Diaz fights. He still wants to be explosive. He still wants to be the guy that nobody can match in the first round or two of a fight. But he also wants to be a guy who can fight in championship rounds and look solid. He has been working on it, even if we haven't seen him fight all that much of late.
How does McGregor win?
McGregor gets it done the way he always does -- with a quick start. If you look back at the first fight, even though he didn't land devastating kicks, he used them to corral Poirier. He boxed him in, and then he let his hands go. He needs to get in front of Poirier as soon as possible in this fight, cut him off and let his hands go. McGregor is more dominant at the beginning and we know Poirier has the edge in the later rounds. McGregor needs to come out, close the distance and try to lay some heavy hands on him.
McGregor counters the jab really well with his pull-back. He slips to his right and throws right body shots and uppercuts to the head, following them up with a straight left. McGregor's pressure on his opponents is undeniable. He boxes them with the intention of trying to prove he's the better boxer. And he usually makes that case pretty easily.
How does Poirier win?
Controlling the distance. A lot of footwork, especially in the first round. Poirier needs to make McGregor miss. He needs to solve McGregor's timing. Catch and block McGregor's punches and perhaps most importantly, read McGregor's body language -- he tells when he's tired, and that will be the right time to attack. As mentioned above, McGregor likes to control where his opponents are going, so when Poirier circles to one side to take a kick -- how he'll attempt to absorb an attempted strike from McGregor -- he needs to remember to not step into McGregor's power, but take a step back instead.
Poirier can't exchange punch-for-punch with McGregor because McGregor is very fast and if you're throwing punches at the same time, it's McGregor who is going to land. The best thing to do is slip and counter, or take (block), and that's what Poirier does really well. One of Poirier's best weapons is his jab, but as Poirier jabs, McGregor can use that pull-back counter straight left. Those who leap in on McGregor -- like Alvarez -- get countered by that pull-back. Poirier needs to concentrate on landing the jab, then get out. Or slip away from that pull-back and land one of his other top weapons, the right uppercut.
Poirier keeps his hands up like Quinton Jackson -- rolls with the punches, block, block and give back. Of course he should look for some takedowns, keep McGregor against the cage, weigh heavy on him and get him tired. Poirier does have good takedowns, he has a good body lock and he fights well off the breaks against the cage.
Poirier's No. 1 attribute is his durability and conditioning. Some might say that's not a skill, but it takes a true professional to get into the kind of shape he's in and to take the damage he's apt to absorb. He has been working on his eye-hand coordination, plus doing the work to get his cardio to where he can push and be aggressive in the fifth round.
X-factors
McGregor: His left hand. That's what put Poirier out in the first fight. He did it to Jose Aldo. He did it to Eddie Alvarez. He was able to buckle Nate Diaz with it. Even though he does the flashy kicks, those are really good at disguising his punches and corralling his opponents to where he wants them. His straight left has always gotten it done. The speed and power in that left hand is very dangerous. The timing is always there with him.
Poirier: His ability to switch stances to close the distance. This is a really good weapon that plays into his pressure fighting and coming forward. Poirier will start in southpaw and as he throws his "2" -- his straight punch -- he'll switch stances. He takes a huge step forward at the same time, you don't recognize that he's in a different stance, and all of a sudden, it's not going to be an overhand left coming at you, but an overhand right.
Prediction
McGregor is very hard to match in the first nine minutes. He has the speed, the power and the ability to corner Poirier to get into these exchanges. As much as I respect Poirier, McGregor has the advantage when it comes to the power. He's got it done once against Poirier, I think he'll be able to get it done twice.