Less than three weeks ago, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno stood with arms held high in the center of the Octagon, celebrating their respective victories at UFC 255. Moreno stopped a game Brandon Royval, who suffered a dislocated shoulder during their fight, while Figueiredo took out Alex Perez with a guillotine choke in the first round to successfully defend his UFC flyweight title.
Before the fighters even had time to recover, Dana White announced the pair had become the main event for UFC 256. For the second time in 21 days, Figueiredo and Moreno will fight for flyweight dominance at the Apex in Las Vegas.
The fight will mark Figueiredo's fourth fight of 2020 and his second title defense. He already has taken out two of the top contenders in the division, but Moreno represents a different challenge. The 27-year-old Mexican standout hasn't lost since May 2018, notching victories over Kai Kara-France and Jussier Formiga, among others.
Both are heavy strikers who keep intense pressure on their opponents. Figueiredo has displayed success in all aspects of his game. He understands range incredibly well, which helps his ability as an excellent counterpuncher. He's shown both power and submission skills. With his strong left, Moreno needs to take advantage of one of Figueiredo's most visible mistakes -- keeping his hands too low.
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the flyweight title fight and what each fighter must do to finish 2020 as a UFC champion.
The big picture
The quick turn for the UFC flyweight champion and his opponent is a great way to cap off the final pay-per-view of the year. Both fighters won definitively at UFC 255 on Nov. 21. They both took minimal damage in their last fight. There will always be soreness and unseen damage by just going into that Octagon, but it's clear that they are both in great shape and the quick turn will be a positive for both of them. After every fight you level up -- you learn so much -- and to have their wins so fresh in their heads will definitely play out strategically in this fight. They took advantage of the opportunity and it's a great recipe for a really good fight. They are -- and should be -- super confident entering this main event.
Both are also relatively big flyweights and the limited amount of time between fights should help both in terms of hitting the scales. Figueiredo has had troubles with the scale, missing weight in his first bout of 2020, but for both of them, being this close to their previous fight allowed them to keep their weight under control. They probably had a cheat week, but then got right back to dieting.
As for the fight, it boils down to the pace early. If Moreno can weather the initial storm, the power and the explosiveness, and take Figueiredo to deep waters, he may have some success. I think it's a difficult task and there's a reason why Figueiredo is definitely the favorite. He's a fighter who controls the cage, controls the pace of the fight, has a really good fight IQ, looks to counter and when he counters, he counters with explosive shots -- big uppercuts, straights, straight hooks, switching from southpaw to conventional, spinning kicks -- and then he does a good job at keeping his guard up, sliding out, blocking, keeping his eye contact on the target, even countering with elbows. He does damage. A lot of damage.
Moreno is a messy fighter, but he tends to get stronger as the fight goes on. He needs to keep his guard up, make Figueiredo throw more punches than he wants to, that would throw Figueiredo off his normal pace. At the same time, Moreno needs to take minimal damage in the process.
Moreno is a very good boxer, and I think that's where he has an advantage. That two-inch reach advantage is significant. He sticks the jab well, does the 1-2 well, then he slides back out of range. He also has a very good double jab-left hook-right hand combination and as his opponents lean he has a very good left hook to the head. Boxing is his strength and could prove difficult for Figueiredo.
Now when it comes to the fight going to the ground, both guys welcome the ground and welcome wherever the fight takes them. Figueiredo likes to explode in, utilizing position over submission. Moreno is a fluid guy. He doesn't really hit a sprawl, but instead he'll absorb any momentum and try to roll and scramble to get into a good position.
How does Figueiredo win
Joe Rogan marvels at Deiveson Figueiredo's performance after a first-round finish of Alex Perez at UFC 255.
Figueiredo has good awareness and capitalizes on his opponent's mistakes. Perez's mistake was to believe he was in a safe position. It wasn't a huge mistake, but the next thing he knew he was in a guillotine and the fight was over.
Moreno can't make a mistake on Saturday.
Moreno is a boxer. He's heavy on his lead leg. Figueiredo will attack that lead leg, or switch southpaw and attack the body like he did against Perez. In that fight, Perez was patient and didn't take Figueiredo's bait, yet Figueiredo still found a way in and that was by attacking the lead leg and the body. If Figueiredo can't successfully close the distance because Moreno has the edge in reach, I'd expect Figueiredo to attack Moreno's lead leg in the process.
Figueiredo keeps his hands low, which is often a problem for other fighters. However, he can keep his hands low because he manages the distance so well. Figueiredo glides back when his opponents attempt to strike. He plays that fine line where he's so close, but it's like he's in the matrix. He has that Fedor (Emelianenko) thing where he can whip his hands with power. Managing the distance helps his counters and all this is easy for me to say, but to see him pull it off is masterful.
Once he comes into range, he may bring his hands up, but he also has the ability to slip and roll really well. He eats punches well on his forehead, not so many on his chin. He will take some to the chin if he has to, but he has really good eye contact and moves incredibly well.
A win for the champion depends on a fast start, his power and landing some of his key counters, which come from all angles.
How does Moreno win?
Moreno's goal is to make Figueiredo work, make him overwork and then take advantage by letting his hands go more, especially in the later rounds.
To do so, it all starts with the jab. Moreno should land his jab, land the 1-2 using his longer range and elicit a reaction from Figueiredo to understand where his counters are coming from. Moreno needs to make Figueiredo work and work and work, so that he'll get his timing. As a result, Figueiredo will tire a little and allow Moreno to close the distance with his left hook-right hand-jab-jab-left uppercut-right hand-slip-left uppercut-right hand, and if Figueiredo runs away, Moreno should chase and walk forward with his right leg and go for a big lead left kick to the head. All of that is a very good sequence he's done multiple times in past fights.
Stamina is also key for Moreno. When he fought Anthony Pettis, Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France he finished the fights strong. In the later rounds Moreno can close the distance as Figueiredo is fatigued and Moreno is getting stronger. That's just the type of fighter Moreno is -- he gets your timing. He's the less athletic fighter when it comes to speed and power, but as everyone else slows and they're playing his game, Moreno can then take it to the floor and make it a grappling match.
X factor: The first round
Can Figueiredo get it done right away? Can Moreno endure the punishment early? Figueiredo is going to keep on the attack from the start of the fight. He believes in his power and his strength, and is going to continue aggressively at his pace -- when he sees the openings, not out of control -- until he gets to Moreno.
If Moreno can weather that storm and turn it around after the first and even second round, he has a chance. But will he endure too much punishment by that point and already be out of the fight?
Prediction
Both of these fighters are on top of their game and really believe in themselves. Technique is going to play big in this, but I think it's going to come down to heart. Who can keep pushing? Who can weather the storm? Who will be the storm? While I do believe Moreno will show toughness and he'll have his moments, the damage that Figueiredo manages is devastating and it's hard to turn a fight around against someone like him if you get into a hole early. Figueiredo successfully defends his title.
Bonus prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira
Both fighters are very similar. They are very fluid, welcome the fight going to the ground, catch guillotines and chokes from their feet. Ferguson has the advantage in striking and while both can strike, it's the movement -- that break dancing that Ferguson brings to the cage -- the switching from southpaw to conventional, and aggression that will let him land bigger combinations and be in superior positions, which should allow him to grind it out to get the win. Olivera is a tricky fighter, but Ferguson will be too powerful for him on Saturday. Ferguson gets the win.