<
>

UFC Fight Night predictions: Fighters disagree on Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana

Former UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm will look to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2015 on Saturday, when she meets Irene Aldana at UFC Fight Night in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.

Holm (13-5) hasn't enjoyed a win streak since her shocking upset of Ronda Rousey at UFC 193. It has been a series of highs and lows for the 38-year-old over the past several years, with UFC title losses to Miesha Tate, Germaine de Randamie, Cris "Cyborg" Justino and Amanda Nunes. But despite the inconsistent results, Holm is still ranked No. 6 by ESPN in the bantamweight division.

Aldana (12-5) seems to be finding her stride after starting her UFC career at 0-2 in 2016 and 2017. The Mexican contender is 5-1 in her past six appearances, including a first-round knockout of Ketlen Vieira in December.

Does Holm maintain her spot near the top of the division, or does Aldana continue to surge up the ranks? ESPN asked several fighters for their breakdowns and predictions of Saturday's main event.

Katlyn Chookagian, UFC flyweight

Beat Aldana via split decision on April 8, 2017.

With Aldana, I have the experience of fighting her, and I think she's gotten a lot better since we fought. I think she always had really good skills, but she's gotten more confident in her strengths, and you can see that in her last couple fights. That being said, Holly is obviously a veteran who has seen everything, so that's her advantage in this fight.

I think for Holly to win, she needs to push Aldana toward the cage. I feel like everyone thinks of Holly as a striker, but when she pushes people against the fence, she's hard to deal with. If she can pressure Aldana against the fence and keep her there, she'll win. But if Aldana uses her footwork and stays off the fence, that will help her a lot. I think it's good for Aldana they're fighting in the big cage on Fight Island, so she can move around more. I only fought a few fights at 135 pounds, and I always wondered how I would do against Holly, so it's kind of fun to watch somebody who I fought get to fight her. I don't know if I'm being hopeful, because I want to see Aldana do well, but I think Aldana will win a decision.


Aspen Ladd, UFC bantamweight

I think Irene is going to come out hard and try to bring it, but Holly is going to shut her down, push her up against the fence and move out of range. I don't think it's going to be that exciting of a fight. It has the potential to be, but I see Holly being more focused on shutting down Aldana and running it up against the cage.

I really think Aldana will want to be aggressive. She tends to fight that way anyway, and she's an excellent counter striker, but especially in a fight like this where she has a lot to prove, she's coming out in her first main event, she's got Holly Holm as an opponent, it's a great fight to have. She's going to come out wanting to do well, wanting to prove herself and wanting to take Holly's spot.

Now, it could have the exact opposite effect on her, and make her cautious, but I suspect she'll attempt to come out aggressive. I think it will look extremely similar to Holly's win over Raquel [Pennington in January]. It will start out with a few seconds of striking, then Holly is going to close the distance and shut her down against the cage. Irene is strong and she's good, and she'll try to defend that spot, but I think it will keep going back to that. I think it will definitely go to a decision, and I'm picking Holly.


Marion Reneau, UFC bantamweight

Lost to Holm via unanimous decision on July 15, 2015.

When I fought Holly, she was one of the strongest girls I ever fought. That's what I distinctly remember about that moment, that compared to all the girls I've ever fought, she is one of the most sturdy and strong.

I also feel like she has an intelligent camp in her corner. Her advantages are that she's obviously a professional boxer and kickboxer, but the other thing is she's been in multiple five-round fights.

Irene on the other hand, her game has been predominantly stand-up. However, as soon as she hits the ground, she's not just laying there. She's very quick to get up, because that's not something she's comfortable with, so you always see a sense of urgency whenever she hits the ground.

I anticipate Holly will feel her out for the first couple rounds, catch onto her timing, and by that time, she's going to start pushing the pace a little, smothering Aldana against the fence and taking her out of her game, because Irene wants to work at range out in the open. I see Holly taking the fight by decision.


Macy Chiasson, UFC bantamweight

I watched Aldana fight Raquel Pennington in person [a split-decision loss for Aldana in 2019], and that was an insane fight. I know she lost a decision, but I think stylistically, she should do pretty well against Holly Holm. I know Holly has that really extended background in boxing, and she's gotten a lot better in the grappling and clinch game, so I'm excited to see how this plays out. I do think Aldana will have a little bit of a striking advantage, and she has jiu-jitsu as well. I'm really curious to see what kind of game plan Jackson Wink comes up with for Holly.

I think Holly should put a lot of pressure on Aldana, because it seems like she likes to sit on the outside and play the outside game. If Holly can do well pressuring her, she has that southpaw advantage, and if she can walk Aldana back she has that great head kick at the end of her combinations. I could also see her using the clinch a bit. It would not surprise me if they want to clinch against the cage and kind of just play that in-and-out game the whole fight. I think we're gonna see some exciting stand-up between them, and I think we're gonna see a close fight. I think it will be a decision, and it will go to Aldana. I've liked what I've seen from her lately.