For the second time in 2020, the UFC will promote a three-round main event on Saturday rather than its usual five-round headliner.
Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith (33-15) will take on Austrian prospect Aleksandar Rakic (12-2) in the main event of UFC Fight Night inside the promotion's Apex facility in Las Vegas. The bout is scheduled for three rounds instead of the traditional five for a main event because the fighters had been training for a three-round undercard bout before being elevated to the top of the bill. The UFC originally had other plans for the main event, which fell through.
Smith is coming off a high-profile TKO loss to Glover Teixeira in May during which Smith, a 12-year veteran of the sport, told his corner in mid-fight that his "teeth are falling out." Smith, 32, was later diagnosed with a broken orbital bone but has since told ESPN the injury healed quickly, allowing for this return.
Rakic hasn't fought since a close split decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir in December. Saturday will mark his first time in a main event since signing with the UFC in 2017.
Who wins? ESPN asked several experts to break the main event down and offer a pick.
Rashad Evans, former UFC light heavyweight champion
Rakic is red hot. Even though he lost his last fight, that was still very close and he did a lot of things well. He does a really good job of keeping the fight long, at the range he likes. He's able to land his sneaky up-jab, which is not the jab we normally see, like a one-one-two. It's one to keep the other guy busy and at a distance. And when an opponent comes in too fast to close that distance, he'll catch him with a check hook or jab to the body. And all of that is to set up the range he wants, and then he daggers them with a blazing right hand or blazing kicks.
What Smith is going to have to do, to stop him from keeping the fight at range and also take away the power of his right hand, is work kicks. Volkan did that. He left a big hematoma on Rakic's leg, and it messed up that fight for him. Anthony is going to have to kick and be physical on the inside. He also needs to watch to not cover up so hard sometimes. Anthony has a tendency to do these high cover-ups you see out of a lot of muay Thai guys, but with Rakic, that could get him in trouble, because Rakic is very smooth.
I'm going with my boy Anthony in this one. And I'll be honest, a big part of me is hoping he wins this fight because going against Rakic after the way Anthony's last fight went is a tall order. Anthony's fight against Teixeira is the kind that can make a fighter second guess. When you have those traumatic experiences, when you're out there and you're pretty much beaten like that and you're on an island, that sticks in your mind. If there is ever a situation like that in this fight, that's the first place Anthony's mind is going to go. After I got knocked out by Lyoto Machida [in 2009], my next fight I was doing well against Thiago Silva, and he hit me in the third round and the first thing I thought was, "S---, this is what happened when I fought Machida." That's what Anthony is going to have to deal with this fight.
Brandon Gibson, Jackson-Wink MMA
Rakic is one of those light heavyweights who really jumped onto the scene two years ago, and as the coach of Jon Jones, we're always keeping an eye on future prospects and contenders. He also fought one of our teammates, Devin Clark, in 2018. Devin had some success early on, but then Rakic was able to find a counter and put him down. He's definitely a fighter our camp is familiar with.
I'm not surprised Rakic is a big favorite. Even though he's coming off that split decision loss, he looked good in that fight and he'd been on a tear before. And Smith, he just fought Teixeira not long ago and suffered some heavy facial damage. We'll see if it's too soon for him. Anthony had a wild volume against Teixeira in the first two rounds of that fight. If he can come on that strong, with that volume against Rakic, I think it would be a good idea. I think he needs to bring the volume early, set the pace and make Rakic fight off his heels.
I think the keys for Rakic are to keep his kicking range and control the pace of the fight. I lean toward Rakic, and if he can control the range, I think he could even find a shot to put Smith down.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready coach
Rakic has a nice straight right hand. I love his hand speed, and he has nice, aggressive punch-blitz combinations. He has a nice single-leg takedown he'll snatch up. I was impressed in the third round of his last fight, when his leg was banged up and he looked a little tired, he still went for a takedown and was able to put [Oezdemir] up against the cage with a minute to go. That shows fight IQ, ring generalship and knowing how to win close rounds.
The biggest weakness that stands out -- and it stood out to me within the first three seconds of his last fight -- is when he blitzes in, most of the stuff he throws, his chin pops up every single time. It's super noticeable. And I don't know if he'll be able to correct that easily, since this is now his 15th fight. But his reaction times are good.
Smith also has a really good right hand. I don't know if he'll be able to hit it, though, because of Rakic's speed. I love Smith's top game; I think it's underrated. The thing with Smith, he had a broken orbital in his last fight, which was only three months ago. I don't know how bad a broken orbital it was, there are different levels, but that's a huge concern.
When Smith is going backward and he kind of covers up, he doesn't fight as well. But when he comes forward, that right hand is something special. Especially when he mixes it with the high, low -- works his jab. In a five-round fight, I thought Rakic might have been predictable because his offense is kind of limited. If I had to pick one, man, I want to go with Smith because of that right hand. But I've got to go with Rakic in a three-round fight.
Dan Hardy, UFC analyst
Both of these guys have similar skills, and tend to occupy similar ranges in the fight. I think Rakic is a little more skilled at range, and Smith with submissions, but Smith's experience is worth a lot in this scenario. Not only his almost fifty fights, but also his setbacks and frustrations in the Octagon.
Smith needs to work fast and be aggressive, and in his early fights at 205 pounds -- against Evans and Shogun -- we saw just that. Sometimes he does let the fight get away from him, like he did in the early going of the Oezdemir fight, the Jones fight, and more recently with Teixeira. He only has three rounds to make this his fight though, which may help with his pacing.
Rakic at range is most dangerous to Smith. He chops his opponents down with low kicks, manages distance with his long reach and straight punching, and covers distance very well. His set up of the high kick against Jimi Manuwa just demonstrated how lethal he can be when given space. We've also seen him dominate on the ground, controlling wrists, posture and position, and use very effective striking -- especially from the turtle position. If he tangles with Smith on the ground, I think we could see that black belt jiu-jitsu from Smith, reversing positions and attacking the neck.
The smart approach for Rakic would be to fight at distance until Smith is worn down or hurt, and then pick up the pace. Smith needs to get out of the gate, and be impactful in the opening minutes, and I think his best pressure comes from his rush behind fast punching, and his elbows and knees in the clinch. Rakic has all of the skills to shut Smith down and outpoint him to a decision. If Smith can get his gameface on, and come to the Octagon as 'Lionheart', he can make this a very ugly night for Rakic.
The inconsistency of Smith's aggression in recent fights concerns me though, and I have Rakic in a close three-round decision. I do hope Smith can prove me wrong though, because I don't think we've seen his full potential yet.