Editor's note: The biggest heavyweight title fight in the history of the UFC occurs this Saturday at UFC 252 in Las Vegas. Stipe Miocic defends the heavyweight belt against Daniel Cormier in a trilogy fight that will define the victor's legacy. Miocic has the promotion's most heavyweight title defenses with three.
Down on the scorecards after three rounds in the second fight with Cormier at UFC 241 in August 2019, Miocic attacked the body in the fourth. That adjustment was the key to victory. But will he be able to figure out one of the sport's best once again this weekend?
Cormier shocked many when he captured the heavyweight title from Miocic in July 2018 at UFC 226. At the time, DC was the light heavyweight champion and an underdog against Miocic, but the first-round knockout changed his legacy forever. Will Cormier be able to make the appropriate adjustments in this trilogy fight, which will be the final fight of his career?
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the heavyweight bout and what each fighter must do to leave the Octagon as the winner.
The big picture
As someone who fought in a trilogy with Josh Thomson, I understand what these two have been focused on and preparing for since their last encounter. In the first fight against Thomson, he had the upper hand, and he did a great job. In the second fight, I made all the right adjustments to get a win of my own. And the third fight was just a great one, as we knew each other so well.
Spending nearly 25 minutes together in the Octagon, these two have a lot of data on each other, both via in-Octagon experience and analyzing the tapes afterward. Miocic went to the drawing board to make adjustments after the first fight, and he succeeded. Now it's Cormier's turn. We know both fighters have spent all this time thinking about what they need to do in order to win this third fight.
The body punches are still sitting in Cormier's head after that last fight. He knows the body shots are a hole in his game. He leaves his body open; it's part of his fighting style. What adjustments has he made to protect his body? Not only should Cormier expect the liver shots, I believe Miocic saw that there is a big opportunity there for straight rights or push kicks to the body. It's kind of an open target that Miocic wasn't hitting until that fourth round.
Those adjustments that Miocic made were incredible. As a fighter, it's hard to be thinking of all the little tricks during a fight. It's difficult to process on the spot. It doesn't happen too often, but sometimes you just see something -- "Oh, I see this. Oh, my gosh, it worked." And you keep going to it. It's just your instinct and it finally goes.
Now, can Miocic do it again?
How does Miocic win?
Miocic was more aggressive in the first fight, in that toe-to-toe range where Cormier could still land. That ultimately resulted in the loss for Miocic. In the second fight, Miocic was a little bit more disciplined to keep his chin down and stay more on the outside, which kept him out of too much danger.
Since the second fight, Miocic should've focused his preparation on fighting on the outside, plus working the body and using that new target to open up his offense. By Cormier protecting his body, the chin becomes susceptible. I'd expect that Miocic's team is drilling a lot of boxing hand combinations with big body shots added in, then going to the head. I would just have drilled straight right to the body, left to the body, another to the body, fake to the body, go to the head.
More shots to the body in this third fight will be key, but Miocic needs to use them as more of a setup. It's also not just a left hook to the body, but straight rights and push kicks too. Work the body, work the body, get Cormier concerned about another strike to the body, and go right for the head. It'll be open.
Now, another key is Miocic maintaining his energy. Cormier is a quick starter, and he puts a lot of pressure on. We saw that in the second round of the last fight. Yes, Miocic made all the right adjustments later on, but Cormier also was getting a little tired. Then Miocic landed the body shots, and it took more wind out of Cormier. All throughout, Miocic was still in good shape; he had the energy to keep going, and in a five-round fight, you need that.
How does Cormier win?
Cormier should've spent this time between fights working on his high guard. He wants to continue to press forward and be aggressive, but he doesn't want to be throwing punches at the same time. He needs to keep his hands up, roll and take punches a little bit better; and after he's done, he doesn't need to continue to press forward.
After the exchanges, Cormier could take a left step, right step and circle out a little to buy him some time to let his energy bar come back up -- and then press forward again. He also likes to paw out and grab his opponent's hands, but that's what left his body open. He needed to work on grabbing the hands but bringing his elbows and hands back to his chin and back to his body to protect. He just can't have his hands out freely as he always liked to do.
Now, that said, Cormier wins by doing the same thing he always does. He fights intelligently and with courage as he pushes forward. His corner tried to remind him in the last fight to keep his hands up to protect his chin and respect the power. I know Cormier likes to embrace the grind and loves to wear people down, but I don't think he understood that he could have backed off on the pressure.
I'd like to see Cormier fight in sprints a bit more. He likes to grind, so sure, grind a little bit; but let's get some footwork in there that takes him side to side to let his energy bar come back up. His foot was on the pedal from the first round until the third round in the last fight, when we finally saw some noticeable fatigue. At that point, Cormier couldn't keep the same pressure on Miocic.
Cormier needs to figure out a way to maximize his energy -- fight in the sprints and also have some times of active rest in between. Be active for a few minutes, then intelligently defend himself for 20 seconds. That will allow him to rest and be able to bring some more offense. Miocic did a really good job of that in the last fight.
For Cormier, relying on his wrestling is easier said than done. Wrestling matches exert a lot of energy; they are seven minutes for a reason. There's only so much picking up a 230-pound Stipe Miocic you can do before your gas tank is gone. Now, Cormier can focus on riding Miocic a little bit, as in take him down and then stay heavy on top, which will sap Miocic's energy and prevent him from getting up.
X factors
Miocic: Can he make the adjustments again? Can he figure out this version of Daniel Cormier? Sometimes you, as a fighter, are just in a fight. It's hard to coach others and come up with things on the spot that truly make a difference, especially at this level. So for Miocic to find that hole in Cormier was remarkable, and that ultimately opened up the right hand, which finished the job.
Cormier: The riding. I know he has the takedowns, but will he take down Miocic and will he be able to ride him? Will Cormier be able to stay on top? It's easier said than done.
Prediction:
It's such a big fight. I just want to sit and enjoy it. I'm leaning toward Miocic. He's still in the game. He wants to be in the game. The later this fight goes, the better it goes for Miocic.