Amanda Nunes, one of the best to ever set foot in the Octagon, returns Saturday to defend one of her two titles -- the featherweight belt -- against Felicia Spencer in the main event of UFC 250.
Since losing to Cat Zingano in September 2014, Nunes has run through her competition. Fighting at both 135 and 145 pounds, she beat Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, Valentina Shevchenko and more, to the point that she nearly cleared out both divisions. Nobody has been able to solve her, and the oddsmakers don't believe Spencer will be the one to do so either.
But Spencer isn't just another fighter in line. She has won two of her three UFC fights, with her lone loss coming against Cyborg last July. The 29-year-old is currently a +450 underdog and will need to use her grappling and submission ability to overcome the champion.
Also on the card is a can't-miss bantamweight matchup between Aljamain Sterling and Cory Sandhagen. Two of the top contenders in the division will fight in an eliminator to see who will get a future shot at either Petr Yan or Jose Aldo, who will soon compete for the vacant UFC bantamweight title.
UFC fighter and ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez breaks down these two fights at UFC 250, looking at what it will take for each fighter to bring home the win.
Nunes vs. Spencer
The big picture
Will we see Spencer take Nunes to the floor? If so, how has Nunes improved in the grappling department since her last loss, to Zingano?
Nunes is so composed as a champion. She has such control over her sprints and her understanding of when to really go for a finish. That fight against Zingano was really pleasing to watch as a spectator, but Nunes made mistakes in her position by being overly aggressive. She went for the ground-and-pound, and she put herself, not necessarily in danger, but into some positions that ultimately led to challenges in maintaining control of the fight.
Nunes has become more composed as a fighter since then. She knew when to come out and brawl against Cyborg, but she can also bring it down to a cerebral level, like she did against Holly Holm. Against Zingano, it was really a tornado of a fight; Nunes got pulled into a high-paced grappling match and was, at times, in those troubling positions. She exerted a lot of energy in her attempts, and when she was in that chaos she eventually lost.
Can Spencer bring this match to the ground? That will be one of the biggest questions of the night.
How does Spencer pull off the upset?
If I'm Spencer, I'm not trying to get into a high-striking affair with Nunes. Spencer needs to press Nunes against the cage, score points, look for the takedowns and try to make this a scrambling, grappling match.
Spencer has a great rear-naked choke. She has the ability to get her hooks in, really hip out and stay on the back hard so that she can finish the choke.
Nunes hasn't necessarily shown weakness on her back, but she has shown she isn't a master at getting off her back. Nunes hasn't mastered submissions off her back and has been grounded and pounded by a high-level fighter, Zingano.
I believe Spencer will show heart and determination and still go for the win, even if she's down significantly on the scorecards. Last weekend, in Tyron Woodley's fight against Gilbert Burns, Woodley showed he could hang, but realized he wasn't going to win that night. He really didn't go for it. Spencer will continue to look for that victory and press forward -- do whatever it takes to avoid taking a loss. She has great mental toughness.
Spencer proved how durable she is in her fight against Cyborg. She can really take a strike and continue to push forward. If Spencer can be durable, she can continue to jab forward, use that good side kick that can get up high, and pressure Nunes to try and take her down. If she can do that, she has options. She could stay on top, or try to take her back and look for a submission.
Spencer needs to come right at her. She's going to eat some punches -- that's definitely going to happen -- but then hold on to Nunes and stay on her to get this fight to the mat. Either way, on top or bottom, this approach will exert more energy from Nunes. Look for these grappling exchanges to get a sweep or superior position, then look for a submission or ground-and-pound. That's how she gets it done.
How does Nunes keep her winning streak going?
Quite simply, she does such great things as a fighter and she should just keep doing what has gotten her to this point: Take the center of the Octagon, pop her jab and land a few big shots.
Nunes doesn't need to be overly aggressive. She often concentrates on landing her jab and some strikes, but more importantly, neutralizing the takedown. She does a very good job of using stiff-arms, and if you get past those stiff-arms, she gets this Muay Thai clinch where she uses her forearms to neutralize your effort. She has good takedown defense, then scores knees in the clinch and ultimately disengages.
As she starts getting Spencer's timing, she'll start engaging more. Nunes will start chopping her away, then freely let her hands go because she'll anticipate the strike or body lock or engagement a mile away, just like she did against Raquel Pennington. Nunes has great patience and she'll chip away until she finally lets her hands go.
Nunes' heavy hands are tough to deal with. Spencer has a lot of confidence because she was able to last three rounds against Cyborg, who in some ways was the scariest person until Nunes beat her. But there has to be a little bit of doubt from Spencer wondering if she could take that punch that Cyborg couldn't take. Spencer has to be wondering if she can give that punch to Nunes that Cyborg couldn't. It's going to be a true test, and that has to be in her head.
X factor
Overall, the X factor is where the fight takes place. Can Spencer get this fight to the ground, and if she does, can she hold Nunes down? Can Nunes neutralize the takedown, and if not, has she improved on a part of her game that we haven't seen in years? Look for Spencer to blitz Nunes and make this a messy fight.
Spencer's X factor is the back take and back finish, if she can get to that superior position. She has won via rear-naked choke in four of her last seven fights.
Nunes' X factor is her striking. She has such heavy hands and she will most definitely test Spencer's durability very quickly in this fight.
Prediction
Nunes retains her title
Sterling vs. Sandhagen
The big picture
This is a really exciting fight. It's so cool to see the 135-pound division evolve.
Both of these guys have taken a page out of Dominick Cruz's book, as they have fantastic footwork. They move around and they've made it their own style. They use the whole cage, they shift stances from southpaw to conventional, and they are both elusive fighters.
One thing that is different is that when Sterling gets in toe-to-toe exchanges, he does a lot of rolling and dipping, and out of these rolls he lands big punches and big kicks. I don't see Sandhagen doing that as much, but he does a lot of footwork feints and a lot of pairing and catching and blocking and jabbing and pulling. He has more of a boxer style while Sterling has more of a wrestler style where he's kind of winging punches, rolling and looking to shoot double legs and penetrate.
They both offer different looks with really good movement, very good feints and impressive MMA grappling transitions.
I give Sterling the edge in grappling, and he has very good takedowns. But what Sandhagen does well, even though he doesn't have a sprawl or takedown defense, he uses things like submission attempts to neutralize the takedown. For instance, if you're trying to go for a single-leg takedown against the wall, Sandhagen looks for a Kimura or guillotine, and in these positions he could try and threaten these submissions to escape. If Sandhagen gets taken down, he could roll with the momentum and just try to keep the scramble going.
X factors
Sterling: Cage awareness. Can Sterling lure Sandhagen close to the fence, and then, can he switch? Sterling is really good at that and has done it to plenty of his opponents. He plays the edge, gets his opponent pressing and then somehow switches and rolls, and the next thing you know, his opponent's back is against the fence.
Sandhagen: Boxing. Sandhagen needs to get Sterling to box him. Can he slow Sterling down and win the key exchanges in the pocket? Sandhagen is going to have to be the one dictating the pace.
Prediction
I think highly of Sandhagen, but I believe Sterling will be able to pull out a win. His cage awareness is fantastic. He makes the right decisions. He knows when to disengage before mistakes are made.