Urijah Faber, TJ Dillashaw and Demetrious Johnson have unique insight into how the UFC 249 co-main event -- Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz -- will play out on May 9 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Faber beat Cruz in 2007 and then lost twice to the former bantamweight champ. Johnson split with Cejudo and lost to Cruz. Dillashaw lost to both fighters.
That's a lot of experience to draw from when analyzing and predicting the outcome of this bout, which features Cejudo defending his bantamweight title against perhaps the greatest bantamweight of all time. But Cruz hasn't fought since Dec. 30, 2016, and that layoff is likely one of the key reasons he's entering the bout as a sizable underdog.
But not everyone is going with the betting-line favorite.
Cejudo (15-2) has won five in a row and is one of only seven fighters in UFC history to win titles in two different divisions (bantamweight and flyweight). Cejudo, 33, also won the Olympic wrestling gold medal in 2008, and he is ESPN's No. 3 pound-for-pound MMA fighter, coming in only behind Khabib Nurmagomedov and Jon Jones. Cejudo's last fight was June 8 when he stopped Marlon Moraes in the third round. Cejudo injured his shoulder in the first round of that fight and underwent surgery.
Cruz (22-2) has not fought since he lost the bantamweight title to Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision. The San Diego native had won 13 straight before that fight, a streak that stretched back to a 2007 loss to in WEC. Cruz, 35, is a surefire future UFC Hall of Famer. But will ring rust hurt Cruz, as many predict? Cruz doesn't believe in ring rust.
ESPN asked some of the fighters who know both well, as well as coaches and peers, for their unique perspectives and predictions, some of which may be surprising.
Editor's note: Answers were edited for length and clarity.
TJ Dillashaw, former UFC bantamweight champion
I actually think Cruz wins the fight. I think he wins a decision. I don't think Cejudo is all he cracks himself up to be. He's very good, don't get me wrong. He's a great athlete, he's done some amazing things in the combat world. But I don't think he's to the level of what Cruz can show him. It's gonna be difficult for Cejudo to deal with Cruz's awkward movement. It's not that Cruz is super technical, he's just awkward and hard to deal with. Cruz has some huge openings in his game. He's got a way to be beaten, he definitely does. I just don't know if Cejudo has the element to do it.
The way Cejudo needs to fight Cruz is by not being overly aggressive, don't chase him. Don't go guns-a-blazing at the beginning and throwing big shots to try and catch him. I kind of learned that mistake the first couple rounds when I was trying to knock Cruz's head off. And then I beat him up the last few rounds. Cody Garbrandt showed that, too. Cruz put himself out of position, because he does it nonstop. Cruz puts himself way out of position all the time, but he's playing this cat-and-mouse game where he gets you to bite and then he takes advantage of it. I don't know how well Cejudo will be able to deal with it. I think with Cruz's cardio and his experience, he outpoints Cejudo.
Cejudo can beat him. I just don't think he will. I think Cruz is gonna edge him out. I think MMA wrestling is a completely different sport. Cejudo is the better wrestler. But MMA wrestling is a whole sport on its own. I think the distance control that Cruz has is going to be one of Cejudo's biggest challenges. He's not gonna be able to get a hold of Cruz. If he does, he isn't gonna be able to hold him down. It's not like Cejudo is a jiu-jitsu expert where he's gonna take advantage of Cruz giving him his back. Because Cruz gives up his back constantly when he gets taken down, but he uses it to get back to his feet. I think Cruz's scrambling ability and his MMA wrestling will be an advantage for him, too.
Demetrious Johnson, former UFC flyweight champion
The biggest thing is Cruz hasn't been active. That will be the interesting part. Could he overcome that? Of course, he's a stud.
I think Dom has to be dynamic in his approach and not get caught in a slugfest. I think Henry's chin is better than his. All Henry has to do is walk him down and force the fight. I don't think there's anywhere that Cruz has an advantage over Cejudo. Both can wrestle and strike well.
I think Henry could win by decision or finish him. Dom could win by decision. I don't have an official pick.
Urijah Faber, UFC Hall of Famer and former WEC featherweight champion
Henry's losses are to Joseph Benavidez and Demetrious Johnson, right? You have two guys there that are pretty high-level wrestling -- not as high as Henry -- but also creative strikers. I think Dominick is a good matchup against Henry. I think Marlon Moraes, he has that fast-twitch muscle that allowed him to really get off in the first round against Cejudo, but got himself fatigued. And Henry has that champion mindset, he's a guy that will grind and break guys.
I don't see Dominick breaking, if he's still the same Dominick that he's always been. Dom is also one of the guys whose style lends to being a good fighter as you get older, because you don't take a lot of damage. I really feel like the question is gonna be, how good is Henry's striking and how many improvements has he made since the last time we saw him? If he's making big improvements like he has been throughout his career, he may be able to put that pressure and be kind of a bull against Dominick, almost like Cody did when he beat him. But I don't know if Henry has that speed like Cody Garbrandt. He's more of a bully.
Everything is mental, man. When it comes to ring rust, if you think something exists, it does. If you don't think it does, it doesn't. But age happens. That's something that's scientific. You might not be able to take a punch as well as you used to. Sometimes your body, your muscle mass doesn't hold up like it used to, your joints, etc.
I got a couple of short-lived takedowns against Dom. Cody got a couple of short-lived takedowns against Dom. That was point scoring. Dom is gonna scramble a lot. Wrestling pedigree and skill set is one thing, but I think it more speaks to the mentality of Cejudo being an Olympic champion. That is an extremely mentally strong guy. But Dom has had the same mental path when it comes to the tests he's been through as a multiple-time champion and the adversity and injuries and the guys he's faced. I think that's a wash.
The question is, is Dom's body and head and everything gonna hold up? He's got a long history of not being healthy in this sport. That could factor in. Henry is one of the most dominant champions ever. Two-weight-class champion against really legit guys. An Olympic champion, the youngest to do it in the U.S. It's gonna be any man's fight. But I'm gonna choose the evil that I know, which is Dominick, for a slight advantage. If it goes to decision, we'll see Dom squeak it out. And it probably will go to a decision.
Valentina Shevchenko, UFC women's flyweight champion
I really think both fighters are very strong. Henry, he's an active fighter. He just fought within the last year, though he's coming off an injury. Dominick Cruz is, like, perfect -- great athlete and fighter. He was a champion. But the difference when you fought nearly four years ago can kind of affect your game.
I know from myself if you have some stops in between fights, it's best that you have not that hard of a fight next, a fight that will make you feel that you are back. It's better to have some opponents not that high-level before you get back to the real game, and then fight for the championship. But maybe Cruz had a lot of rest and feels more powerful. I know for sure Henry will go there and do a lot of powerful work. He's good -- he's very good.
I would say yes, Henry will win. Only because he's been staying active.
Valentina Shevchenko says she is not afraid of anyone and would fight Henry Cejudo in the Octagon.
Brandon Gibson, JacksonWink MMA striking coach
The first thing to go is movement, your footwork. Dominick is so skilled, but he's such a reactionary fighter. It's gonna be interesting to see how his movement, his speed, his timing and his reactionary defense have held up. When you're a great reactionary fighter, that's not a style that ages well, and Dominick is 35 now.
I think it's gonna come down to -- can Cejudo cut off the cage from Dominick? Can he get into Dominick's range? Because Dominick is definitely gonna have a height and reach advantage. If Cejudo can find ways and time his entries, not just on his takedowns, but on his boxing strikes also, he can get in there and make it a long night for Cruz.
I would pick Cejudo in a five-round decision. There's way too many unknowns and variables to bet on Cruz. I was very impressed by Cejudo's performance against Moraes, who is also a very big 135er. I thought Marlon's size and power were going to be huge advantages for him. Cejudo was able to weather the early storm and go out there and get the job done.
I don't know if there's going to be a big early storm against Dominick. Dominick's biggest strength is his movement, his speed and his ability to point-fight his opponents. There's just too many unknowns right now after such a long layoff.
Lando Vannata, UFC lightweight
With Cruz, you can't say ring rust, because he probably won't have any. He's done notoriously well against wrestlers. Every time he fights a wrestler, he usually ends up out-wrestling them. Cejudo is an Olympic wrestler and that makes it a bit different, but the amount of movement Cruz uses, that's a real hard style to deal with. And he's a big f---ing bantamweight, too.
I'm pulling for Cruz. I don't like the Cringe King too much. Cruz has a massive reach advantage, a massive leg advantage. His style is very unorthodox and very, very good for MMA. He's hard to hit, he finds a lot of shots. I don't know any fights where he's been held down with wrestling. He's very good at getting back up. He's got good offensive and defensive wrestling.
Cejudo being an Olympic wrestler, normally freestyle guys and Greco-Roman guys like that, their top pressure is not the same as folk-style guys. I think Cruz is gonna take the fight. As long as ring rust and age aren't a factor, I think he'll outpoint him.
Calvin Kattar, UFC featherweight
You can't go against the champ, Cejudo. He's done what he's had to do with everybody. He's got that wrestling. I'd like to see how Cruz does against that wrestling. But Cruz is pretty tricky with his standup, too. Cejudo was caught by Demetrious Johnson, so we'll see. Cruz could get tricky, land a shot. I think it's gonna be wrestling versus striking in that one.
Long layoffs are tough. I had a three-year layoff myself once. But I think it's more about mentality, kind of like rehabbing from an injury. Having that confidence in your shots, not second-guessing. Kind of just like trusting your gut. We have to see what [Cruz's] gut reaction is after that long time off. I'm sure he's hungry to get in there. He's a veteran, so I'm sure he won't skip a beat.
I'd have to say wrestling wins with Henry Cejudo. I want to say Dom is getting in work right now with Jeremy Stephens, my adversary, my opponent at UFC 249. So f--- the other side, with all due respect to Cruz.