The MMA world is holding its breath, hoping that the upcoming lightweight title bout between champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson comes to fruition at UFC 249 in April after four previous attempts fell apart before fight night.
With all of the depth at 155 pounds, there are still a number of high-level lightweight contests on the calendar before that night arrives. On Saturday, Dan Hooker will return to action against Paul Felder. Since moving up to lightweight in 2017, Hooker has won six of his seven fights and worked his way up the rankings. Felder has won five of his past six and always seems to give his opponents a tough night in the cage. Both fighters have drastically different striking styles, and that difference is evident from their stats.
The following analysis digs into those differences and highlights the key factors that could determine the winner on Saturday.
The stats that favor Hooker
Hooker is a volume striker who is able to lure opponents into dynamic exchanges, and he often comes out on top. He lands 4.73 significant strikes per minute, which is slightly above average for a ranked lightweight (4.44). During his time in the Octagon, he has been able to overcome less than stellar accuracy with output. Hooker attempts 10.72 significant strikes per minute. Felder, on the other hand, is much more measured in his approach. He attempts only 8.25 significant strikes per minute and lands 3.55. It will be interesting to see how Felder attempts to deal with Hooker's volume. If he tries to strike at his normal pace, he will likely be outlanded. If he tries to increase his output, he could get tired faster or create openings for his opponent to land counters.
The pace of the striking contest is not the only variable that could have a major impact on the fight. The location of the striking exchanges will also be a key factor. Hooker does the vast majority of his striking at distance. In the UFC, 83% of his landed significant strikes have been distance strikes. Only 68% of Felder's landed strikes have been at distance, with the other 32% coming on the ground and in the clinch. Hooker's advantage, in terms of striking output, could easily become exacerbated if Felder is unable to close the distance and work for takedowns.
At a glance, looking for takedowns seems to be a solid strategy against Hooker. He has allowed 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. However, he has greatly improved over the course of his UFC career. Hooker has allowed only one takedown in his past seven fights, and only one of the past 12 takedown attempts against him have been successful. Felder should probably try to mix in some takedowns, but Hooker has been stout defensively and he will not make it easy.
Not only will Hooker have the volume advantage at distance, but he has also been developing into quite the power striker. He has averaged 0.93 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. He has been even better recently. In Hooker's past five fights, he has scored five knockdowns at a 2.12 knockdowns per 15-minute rate. Felder simply has not shown the power to hang with Hooker. He has scored only three knockdowns in his 13-fight UFC career. If he is unable to throw Hooker off his game, Felder could end up tasting the power and having a short night in the Octagon.
The stats that favor Felder
Even though Hooker has been successful with his volume approach, it is somewhat reckless. The offensive style has left him quite hittable. For his UFC career, he has absorbed 4.72 significant strikes per minute, which is the second-worst strike absorption rate among ranked lightweights, behind only Justin Gaethje. Felder has been mostly sound defensively and absorbs only 3.17 per minute, which is above average (3.73) among the same group. He also avoids 50% of his opponents' significant strike attempts. That striking defense will be put to the test against Hooker. However, if he is able to make him miss enough, the opportunities for Felder to land will be there.
Even though Felder does not have impressive wrestling numbers, he actually does quite a good job striking in the clinch and on the ground. He has outlanded his opponents 84 to 53 in the clinch and 95 to 27 on the ground. Felder is also extremely accurate in these positions. He has landed 67% of his significant clinch strike attempts and 69% of his significant ground strike attempts. "The Irish Dragon" has not scored a takedown in his past eight fights, but simply working his wrestling into his game plan could help Felder change the pace of the fight and establish the clinch where he will likely be successful.
Some of the strongest aspects of Felder's game are his grit, determination and toughness. He has only been stopped once through 13 fights in the Octagon. The one stoppage came due to facial cuts against Francisco Trinaldo. Felder has fought 80% of his scheduled cage time. Since suffering a knockdown in his UFC debut against Jason Saggo, he has absorbed 466 significant strikes over 12 fights without hitting the canvas. Even though he has been outlanded in three straight fights, he has managed to win two of those bouts on the scorecards. Saturday will be the first time Felder has been scheduled to fight 25 minutes, but Hooker will really have to put it on Felder to get him out of the cage early.
The bottom line
Regardless of Felder's toughness and staying power, he will likely be up against it Saturday. Hooker's striking volume will likely be too much for his opponent. Not only will Felder struggle to keep pace, but Hooker will also have 25 minutes to wear on his opponent. Felder has shown good defense at times in the Octagon, and he will need every ounce of it in this matchup.
Hooker has always been able to land at a high rate, but recently he has added a power element that has really pushed his career to new heights. If he is able to flex that power against Felder, it could go a long way toward moving him into the UFC lightweight title picture.
Prediction: Hooker by technical knockout in the third round