The light heavyweight division will be on display for the second straight weekend in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz.
Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz will face off Saturday in a rematch of their 2015 bout, which was not an exceptionally close contest as Anderson walked away with a one-sided decision victory. However, both fighters have evolved and developed, and the rematch in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, will feature several new wrinkles and challenges for each fighter.
Let's examine the key statistics that could end up determining the winner and a future light heavyweight title contender.
The stats that favor Anderson
The first fight between these two quickly became a washout. After a relatively even opening round, Anderson outlanded Blachowicz 63-6 in terms of significant strikes over the final two rounds. He achieved this edge by dominating on the ground. In those two frames, he landed all three of his takedown attempts, earned six passes on the floor and landed 58 significant ground strikes. All three of the judges gave Anderson 10-8 scores for both the second and third rounds.
When Anderson has been at his best in the UFC, he has scored takedowns and dominated on the floor. Through his nine-fight UFC career, he has landed 4.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the highest takedown rate among ranked light heavyweights, and it's more than twice the average for the same group (1.71).
Significant ground striking is Anderson's game. He has outlanded his opponents 182 to 14, and 26% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground.
That skill set should be helpful in this fight, as Blachowicz has been particularly vulnerable on the ground. He has been outlanded 151 to 81 by his opponents on the ground, and 33% of his absorbed significant strikes have been on the ground. Blachowicz has never won a fight in the UFC when allowing 10 or more significant ground strikes.
But here's the thing: Despite Anderson's dominance on the mat, his game plan has evolved and he actually has been more effective as a traditional striker in his recent outings. Over his past three fights, 84% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. In his most recent fight against Johnny Walker, in which he earned a shocking first-round stoppage, he scored his first UFC knockdown. Going into the fight, Anderson had landed 688 significant strikes and fought over 2½ hours in the Octagon without scoring a knockdown.
The stats that favor Blachowicz
Anderson has the advantage in terms of overall striking. He holds a +2.27 striking differential (significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute) compared to only a +0.68 differential for Blachowicz. However, if Blachowicz is able to stay off the ground, this becomes a much closer contest. At distance, Blachowicz has landed 2.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbed only 1.44 per minute for a +0.97 striking differential, which is slightly ahead of Anderson's +0.93 measure.
Can Blachowicz keep it off the ground? While his takedown defense has been better recently, Blachowicz stops only 65% of the takedown attempts against him, below the average for a ranked light heavyweight (75%).
Through his first six UFC fights, Blachowicz struggled to stay off the mat. In that stretch he stopped only 50% of the attempts against him. However, in his past seven fights, he has surrendered only two takedowns and stopped 88% of the attempts against him. Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza are both arguably undersized for light heavyweight, but they are both respected grapplers and former Strikeforce champions. Blachowicz stopped all 10 of their combined takedown attempts and forced them into striking contests. He needs to do the same with Anderson on Saturday.
A key element of Blachowicz's attack against Rockhold and Souza was his leg striking. Through his first 11 fights, he landed only 0.27 significant leg strikes per minute. Against the former Strikeforce champions, he landed 31 significant leg strikes, averaging 0.98 per minute. Blachowicz and Anderson have very similar leg reach, 78 and 79 inches, respectively, and Blachowicz could easily make an impact from range with leg strikes.
Despite the similarity in leg reach, Anderson is much more of a headhunter. A vast majority -- 79% -- of his landed significant strikes have been head strikes. If Blachowicz is able to maintain distance, he should be able to have an advantage at range.
Blachowicz has clearly made improvements since his previous fight against Anderson. However, he will need to stop takedowns to be successful in this fight. If he can accomplish that, he certainly has a chance to strike from range and pull the upset.
The bottom line
It is hard to ignore history. Anderson was just dominant in his first fight against Blachowicz. His grappling and ability to strike on the ground gave his opponent fits, and if he wants to continue on an upward career trajectory, he will need to duplicate that performance on Saturday night.
Blachowicz's takedown defense has improved since their first meeting, but Anderson also has become a much more well-rounded fighter. Even if Blachowicz shows improved wrestling, he might still struggle against the developing distance striking game of Anderson.
Staying ahead of Blachowicz for 25 minutes will be a tough endeavor, but if Anderson mixes his newfound distance striking with his wrestling base, he should be able to sway the judges and take home the decision.
Prediction: Anderson by decision