After all of the last-minute commotion, Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz will step into the Octagon on Saturday for a welterweight fight with the mythical BMF title on the line at UFC 244. Diaz returned to action after a nearly three-year hiatus a few months back, defeating Anthony Pettis.
Masvidal is coming off one of the most memorable highlights of all time, knocking out Ben Askren in five seconds -- a UFC record for fastest KO. Both fighters employ similar and fan-friendly styles, but there are a few key divergences in terms of tactics that could determine the winner. The following looks at the statistical categories that highlight those differences.
Striking differential
As you might expect from two fighters who made their reputation at least partially due to their ability to win striking fire fights, Masvidal and Diaz both are outstanding in terms of striking differential. Masvidal, based on his UFC and Strikeforce numbers, currently holds the third-highest differential (+1.22) among ranked welterweights, and Diaz, based on his UFC, Strikeforce and WEC numbers, is right behind him in fourth place (+1.10). Diaz lands at a bit higher rate as his significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) number currently stands at 4.71 compared to 4.17 for Masvidal. However, he also absorbs a bit more. Masvidal's significant strikes absorbed rate (SApM) is 2.95, while Diaz's rate is at 3.61.
While their overall striking numbers are rather similar, Diaz appears to be much more reliant on his offense to win fights. In his victories, his SApM rate remains relatively consistent to his career number at 3.37. However, his offensive striking rate balloons all the way to 6.41. When he is not able to land with that kind of volume, he has struggled. In his defeats, he lands only 3.01 significant strikes per minute. On the other hand, Masvidal's numbers are much more constant. He lands 4.72 and absorbs 2.59 in his wins, while he lands 3.42 and absorbs 3.42 in his losses.
If Masvidal is able to find ways to slow down Diaz's effective striking rate, the fight will likely swing in his favor. That will likely be easier said than done against a fighter who holds the record for the most significant strikes landed in a three-round fight (238 against Donald Cerrone) and has finished with at least 114 landed significant strikes in three of his past four fights.
Striking output
Neither one of these fighters are particularly accurate. However, they both make up for that shortcoming with volume. Masvidal lands only 46% of his significant strike attempts, but he throws 8.92 per minute. Diaz lands only 45%, but he fires off attempts at an even higher rate: 10.42 per minute. While this has been effective for Diaz, it could get him into some trouble against Masvidal.
Even though Masvidal throws at a lower rate than Diaz, it is not a low output by any means. An underrated aspect of his game is his ability to throw with that kind of volume while maintaining proper defense. In his UFC/Strikeforce career, he has managed to avoid 67% of his opponents' significant strike attempts. That is the second-best striking defense from a percentage perspective among ranked welterweights. If Diaz hopes to continue to land at a high clip, he will need to increase his offensive output even more or find a way to increase his accuracy.
If Masvidal is able to slow down Diaz's striking attacks by making him miss, it should allow him to take the lead in this fight. He will be able to land counters and make a better impression on the judges.
Clinch striking
One way Diaz could improve his accuracy is focusing his attack on the clinch position. It has been an underrated, yet essential, part of his striking game for some time. For his UFC/WEC/Strikeforce career, 23% of his landed significant strikes have come in the clinch. In his past three fights, that proportion has been even higher, with 36% of his landed significant strikes coming in the clinch. During that stretch, he has outlanded his opponents 130 to 50 in the position.
Masvidal has been much less effective in the clinch during his career. Over the course of his 21-fight UFC/Strikeforce career, he has landed only 183 significant clinch strikes. Despite a lack of outstanding clinch striking, he has showed solid defense. He has absorbed only 83 significant clinch strikes. However, he does have a tendency to get stuck along the cage. He has allowed his opponents to collect 18:31 of control time in the UFC along the cage, which represents 6% of his total UFC cage time.
Diaz's ability to land meaningful blows in the clinch could be a game-changer in this fight. It will allow him to get off with his offense while avoiding repercussions. His 43 significant clinch strikes dismantled Pettis, and this fight might turn into a repeat performance.
The ground game
Even though Masvidal got into MMA after quite literally fighting in the streets of Miami, he has always been a somewhat underrated offensive wrestler. During his UFC/Strikeforce career, he has landed 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is near the average (1.89) among the ranked fighters in the wrestler-dominated division. Diaz is slightly less successful in terms of takedowns as he lands 1.25 per minute.
Neither fighter holds up particularly well on defense. Masvidal has allowed his opponents to land 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Diaz has allowed 2.78. Masvidal actually defends takedowns relatively well. He stops 77% of the attempts against him, but he has been forced to face multiple volume wrestlers. The same can't really be said for Diaz. He has stopped only 42% of the takedowns against him. That represents the worst takedown defense among ranked welterweights other than Askren, but that number is misleading. Askren has allowed one takedown on one attempt in three UFC fights.
Being stuck on the bottom has been a consistent problem for Diaz throughout his career. He has allowed his opponents to land 1.11 significant ground strikes per minute against him. In the UFC, he has allowed 10 or more significant strikes in seven fights. In those seven fights, he has gone 2-5 with five straight losses. If Masvidal is able to establish top position and land meaningful strikes, it could be hard for Diaz to overcome.
Even though Diaz has had trouble dealing with ground control and striking, he has always been a dynamic submission threat. He averages 1.5 submission attempts per minute, which is tops among ranked welterweights. Diaz has registered 12 submission victories in the UFC and Strikeforce. If he ends up stuck on the bottom against Masvidal, he may be able to continue to threaten his opponent with his submission game.