Madison Square Garden hosts the UFC on Saturday for the third time, but this event has seen an unusual shuffling of headliners given the high-profile venue. With the dust finally settling, we're left with an improbable heavyweight title fight featuring Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis, two guys who were nowhere near the heavyweight title picture a year ago.
It's an extreme stylistic contrast on the heels of the Khabib Nurmagomedov-Conor McGregor pairing. The betting odds again favor the wrestler over the puncher, but at heavyweight, the "puncher's chance" is more pronounced. And Lewis' most recent performance was the physical embodiment of that term, as he stole victory from the jaws of defeat in the closing seconds of his fight against Alexander Volkov just four weeks ago.
The overall theme of UFC 230, though, is middleweights and steep odds. The card is loaded with each. We'll look at performance metrics for the final three fights on the card to see which has the best betting value.
David Branch (-400) vs. Jared Cannonier (+325)
Of the many middleweights loading the main card, David Branch is perhaps the most underrated by the wider public. Originally slated to face Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, who was bumped up to the co-main event against Chris Weidman, Branch is left facing a former light heavyweight moving down a weight class after a KO loss in May. Branch shows up as a well-rounded grinder, capable of utilizing position control to win rounds, but also quick enough to stay out of trouble. He's in the clinch more often than any fighter on the main card, and he's generally in control when there.
While Cannonier has excellent accuracy in his distance striking, he has gotten the worst of violent striking exchanges. And on the mat, there's a potential mismatch favoring Branch, with Cannonier made more vulnerable by his poor takedown defense.
Pick: Steep odds for the favored Branch are justified, as he shows up well on paper versus an unranked opponent dropping weight. Branch is bettable even as a strong favorite, but guessing the total is less reliable.
Chris Weidman (-170) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (+150)
The final middleweight matchup of the four on the main card will produce a potential next contender to challenge the winner of Robert Whittaker's title defense against Kelvin Gastelum. Both Weidman and Souza are former champions who have fallen only to the division's best talent, now hoping for a last title run before age gets the best of them.
Weidman is the younger and fresher of the two. A few years ago, he was an undefeated powerhouse who excelled on the strength of his striking durability and submission game. Now, in 2018, after several TKO losses, he faces the best submission specialist in the division. It's a tough matchup for a guy who has made some mental mistakes against elite opponents and hasn't evolved with the game like other top contenders.
Pick: The odds are close, and we agree it's a near tossup with small edges on paper to Weidman, nullified by stylistic factors. If he forces a standup fight, he should be the busier and more durable man. But if "Jacare" gets top control at any point, he could at least steal a round and potentially set up a submission. The best bet is to assume it stays close and take the Over 2.5 rounds. If the odds diverge further, a play on Souza for the upset is worth it.
Look back at some of Derrick Lewis' funniest one-liners throughout his time with the UFC.
Daniel Cormier (-700) vs. Derrick Lewis (+550)
UFC title fights, despite theoretically bringing together some of the best fighters in a division, can still end up with extreme odds. Daniel Cormier is the biggest betting favorite on the card, as Lewis has been an underdog more often than not in recent fights, despite a 12-3 UFC career. The odds are based on everyone's acceptance that Cormier is the better technical fighter in all aspects of the game. Yet for Lewis, being outclassed has rarely mattered. He's made a career of knocking out better fighters, and the heavyweight division is where the "puncher's chance" thrives most.
Cormier has an excellent fight IQ, and he knows the only way Lewis can win is if Cormier is caught during a defensive lapse. Cormier will absolutely want this fight on the mat, and when we look at Lewis' takedown defense, we see a number that is average at best.
Pick: Expect Cormier to take it to the ground and control this fight from bell to finish, eventually getting a submission. The only question is whether he'll eat a single clean punch on the way in. The odds are too extreme for much value on Cormier, but in line with the puncher's chance that Lewis will have at the beginning of each round. Even the "Fight Won't Go the Distance" prop will offer only pennies on the dollar. This is a pass overall on current prices. In order to sweat the fight, pair Cormier Inside the Distance (or by Submission) with David Branch and Israel Adesanya, and leave a tiny hedge on Lewis by TKO for some absurd plus value insurance.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values -- e.g., a moneyline of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values -- e.g., a moneyline of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."