Saturday's UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas is headlined by a battle of light heavyweights on different trajectories. Johnny Walker looks to recapture some of his momentum after dropping three of his last four fights, while Jamahal Hill tries to make another major step forward.
Hill most recently fought in December, when he recorded an impressive knockout of Jimmy Crute just 48 seconds into their fight.
So who has the edge between these 205 pounders? Marc Raimondi reached out to get a coach's perspective to break down the fight and offer a prediction for Saturday's main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker also offer their picks for Walker-Hill, as well as some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
UFC light heavyweight bout: Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Walker wins: He needs to go back to being erratic and unorthodox. Throwing strikes while he's in motion. Get back to his old roots, what made him so good -- his unpredictability. I understand Walker's team was trying to keep him reserved and calm in his last fight against Thiago Santos, but that's just not that guy's style. He has to get back to that creativity and they should just let him go out there and have fun. That's when he's at his most dangerous.
How Hill wins: I think he's one of the guys with the best vision I've seen in the sport, as far as his counter check hooks and what he's able to throw. He has terrific instincts. He can't get overzealous, and he has to stay within himself. Stay patient. Not try to chase Walker down. Collect data, get reads. Don't over-throw anything where he overextends on a punch and walks into a spinning backfist. He needs to use his eyes and vision.
X factor: I think it's going to come down to experience and momentum. Hill has the momentum right now. There's going to be more pressure to perform on Walker. Look at their career trajectories -- one is coming down and the other is going up. Walker was once in the place where Hill is now, the top prospect. Remember, he was once considered the guy who might one day beat Jon Jones. But Hill is the one with that confidence now, coming off a finish of Crute.
Prediction: Hill in under three rounds. Probably a knockout. I think Round 1 is going to start off slow, kind of like the Walker vs. Santos fight. Walker will likely start in a karate stance, touch the outside leg. But I hope he doesn't do that. Walker should come out guns blazing. That would make for a different dynamic, one beneficial for Walker. But I don't see that happening, so I like Hill.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Walker to win (+210). When Hill and Walker enter the cage, they're unlikely to leave their feet until someone gets knocked down. Neither fighter has attempted a single takedown in their UFC career, so examining their striking potential is the key here, as they are clearly not the same on paper despite both preferring to stand and trade.
Hill has an abnormally high-volume attack, while Walker likes to look for a huge shot. Both fighters have been successful when playing to their strength, so it's a question of whether Hill can win rounds with his long-range volume, or if Walker can connect on a wily counter and add to his highlight reel. The price for Hill is steep, and I see this as closer than the market currently stands, given Walker's finishing potential and versatile experience should the fight end up on the ground. Walker survived five rounds against former light heavyweight title contender Thiago Santos and even won two of those rounds. That proves he is durable enough to stand in there against the top talent in the division. A wild card could be Walker's use of leg kicks, which could affect Hill's ability to strike at range over the course of a five-round fight.
Parker: Hill to win (-260); by TKO/KO inside the distance (-162). Walker will look to get back in the win column against Hill in Saturday's main event. In Walker's last fight he was more poised and less reckless. However, his volume and output were extremely low, which ultimately led to him losing by decision. To get past Hill, Walker will have to find a way to put Hill on his back like Paul Craig did to Hill at UFC 263 last June.
If he can do that, Walker has a shot to steal rounds, as long as he can avoid the striking and power of Hill.
However, I do not see this happening. For starters, I don't trust the chin of Walker. Hill has the power to put him to sleep with one punch. I believe based on Hill's last performance against the talented Crute that he has made the proper adjustments and will be able to keep this fight standing, where he will have a major advantage. Hill gets the win before the bell rings at the end of the fifth round.
Best bets for the rest of the card
Stephanie Egger vs Jessica-Rose Clark
Parker: Rose Clark to win (-190). After dropping a unanimous decision to Tracy Cortez, Stephanie Egger bounced back in a big way with a TKO win over Shanna Young. She will be looking to make it two in a row as she takes on seasoned vet Jessica-Rose Clark. The biggest differences that stand out to me in this matchup are wrestling and the level of competition that Rose Clark has faced. Rose Clark is a high-IQ fighter that understands how important winning is over risking a setback in the UFC. Look for Clark to neutralize the striking of Egger with her wrestling en route to victory.
David Onama vs Gabriel Benitez
Parker: Onama to win (-155). It's not often that a fighter is praised after a loss, but after Onama's performance against Mason Jones, it's well deserved. Onama took the fight on short notice as one of the biggest underdogs on the card and gave Jones a war for three rounds. With a full camp, Onama will look to get his first win in the UFC over Benitez, who is known for his devastating kicks. Look for Onama to neutralize Benitez by overwhelming him with constant pressure throughout the fight to get a big win.
Parker: Porter to win (-260); TKO/KO (+100). Riding a two-fight win streak, Parker Porter will be looking to make it three against a winless Alan Baudot. Porter won his last two fights by decision, but both opponents had very good chins and were more experienced fighters. Baudot lost both of his first two UFC fights via TKO, although the second one was overturned after Rodrigo Nascimento was suspended for failing a post-fight drug test. I believe Porter will have an opportunity to get his first finish in the UFC. He should have the advantage on the feet as long as he doesn't get careless, and eventually one of his strikes will put Baudot down and out.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Kuhn: Buckley to win (-150). A striker's delight will kick off the main card, as both Alhassan and Buckley have won almost every fight in their UFC careers by knockout. Both men are moving up to middleweight where they could presumably pack even more power. At fairly tight odds, the value appears to be on the younger favorite, Buckley, if he can survive early threats. Oddly, Alhassan has not won any of his nine UFC appearances in which the fight went past the first round. Buckley also likes to throw an unusual amount of body kicks, which will control range and test the cardio of Alhassan.
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett
Kuhn: Daukaus to win (-260); by submission (+200); under 2.5 rounds (+150). A safe favorite on Saturday's UFC Fight Night card might be Kyle Daukaus in the co-main event. It's a matchup that could see a lot of time spent on the fence and on the ground. Daukaus spends a fair bit of time in the clinch and has been dominant when he gets control there. Daukaus' clinch control could help him set up takedowns to get the fight to the ground, which is where he spends about half of his total cage time. Eight of Daukaus' 10 wins are by submission, while two of Pickett's six career losses were by rear naked choke. Daukaus brings a finishing threat to the mat, and his ground control will also help him on the scorecards.