Has there ever been a more talented team -- on paper -- than this year's Los Angeles Dodgers?
At the very least, it would have to be a team like these Dodgers.
First and foremost, they're the defending champs. But also they're working on a 12-year streak of postseason appearances, 11 of which featured National League West titles. Over the past four seasons, L.A. has averaged 103.8 wins. The Dodgers followed that stretch with an epic offseason of free agent successes that contributed to some grumbling about disparity in the game.
Their over/under line for 2025 wins was at 105.5 when March ended. According to my database of Opening Day over/unders dating to 1996, that's the high-water mark. The expectations are off the charts.
Should they be? As we've seen, the Dodgers' start has been a little uneven, and while they still have one of MLB's top early records, there's no guarantee this season is going to be a breeze. The talk of 117 or more wins has ebbed, at least for now.
Does that mean we overhyped the Dodgers? Is their level of collective talent not the outlier we thought it was? Using the methodology outlined here, we've put them into historical context.
Here's where they rank among the 25 most talented teams of all time.
The top 10
1. 2019 Houston Astros (Available bWAR: 87.2)
Percentile ranks: 95.6 (hitting), 27.8 (baserunning), 90.3 (fielding), 99.4 (rotation), 92.7 (bullpen)
The available bWAR method favors recent teams, at least those with rosters deep in above-replacement players. Teams simply use more players to navigate a season than they used to, and to an extent, they are able to do so because the talent pool has never been larger. You could use a version of this that used averages rather than a cumulative total, but doing so overpopulates the list with pre-1920 teams.
Naturally, the triangulation strategy that seeks to pin down current talent level favors players that string together strong seasons -- and the teams that deploy them. That's kind of the point -- to simulate a sense of what feeds the kind of perceptions that have fueled the Dodgers' 2025 hype.
The top spot in the available bWAR method goes to the regular-season apex of the recent Astros dynasty, the 2019 version that won 107 games and fell one game short of the championship. Sure, some of this is a product of methodological choice, but there's no question that few teams have been as loaded as the Houston teams over the past decade.
The 2019 Astros squad was bursting. The lineup still featured Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve in top form. The older position players such as Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel were still mashing. This was Yordan Alvarez's rookie season, and while Kyle Tucker was just getting his feet wet, he also figures into this.
The pitching staff was also loaded, with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole both winning 20 games and finishing one-two in the AL Cy Young race. The outlook would be even stronger had Zack Greinke, acquired from Arizona during the season, been part of the opening day mix.
2. 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (86.2)
Percentile ranks: 95.8 (hitting), 82.2 (baserunning), 89.2 (fielding), 99.6 (rotation), 75.7 (bullpen)
Stratification was a major topic a few years ago, never more so than in 2019, a season that featured four 100-win teams and six others that topped 90. The Twins won 101 but zero in the postseason. It wasn't a great time to be mighty.
One of the things that is remarkable about this era, as it pertains to teams that win consistently at a high level, is the list of players they no longer have. This Dodgers team featured Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger -- still stars in the sport for other teams. Kenley Jansen still anchored the bullpen.
The rotation of this version of the Dodgers was particularly dominant. Hyun Jin Ryu won the ERA title and finished second in NL Cy Young balloting. Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin all posted ERA+ figures of more than 140 while starting six games or more.
3. 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers (83.2)
Percentile ranks: 99.8 (hitting), 85.8 (baserunning), 51.2 (fielding), 99.6 (rotation), 85.6 (bullpen)
And here is the answer to our question: Yes, the 2025 Dodgers have a historically unusual level of talent. It's not just hype based on a dazzling list of names.
Here's the thing though: This ranking will evolve, because so much of it is based on projection. By their very nature, projections tend to shy away from extreme outcomes. When the 2001 Seattle Mariners won 116 games, that wasn't the way the roster was built. It was a good roster, but the actual win total was an outlying event. (In case you're wondering, Seattle's available bWAR estimate from 2001 is 67.3, ranking 43rd since 1901.)
Though the Dodgers have an extremely high level of baseline expectation, it's up to them to meet those forecasts -- or exceed them. Roki Sasaki is one example of how this can happen. For all the buildup that accompanied his arrival, Sasaki's forecast is still just that -- a forecast, as he has no MLB track record. He might not live up to his billing, but he also might exceed it.
We don't know if the Dodgers will hold this spot, or move up or down. But it's safe to say the preseason hype was based on a special on-paper collection of talent.
4. 2021 Tampa Bay Rays (79.9)
Percentile ranks: 84.3 (hitting), 67.3 (baserunning), 83.2 (fielding), 44.9 (rotation), 98.1 (bullpen)
The recent Rays show up pretty high on the list a couple of times. To some extent, Tampa Bay's heavy reliance on specialization might overrate them by these methods. Give the Rays credit for putting players in spots where they are best able to produce. But when you convert these specialized contributions to a full-time role, it probably skews things a little.
That's not to say the Rays' high standing is all based on methodological mirrors. The 2021 Rays won 100 games and owned the AL's best run differential. Tampa Bay's front office has proved over and over how effective it is at putting together deep rosters of complementary players. They also excel at featuring these players while they are in their age windows for prime production -- then knowing when to move on.
5. 1943 St. Louis Cardinals (75.6)
Percentile ranks: 85.4 (hitting), 59.3 (baserunning), 97.1 (fielding), 100 (rotation), 10.2 (bullpen)
The Cardinals won at a high level before and after World War II, but there's no question war-thinned rosters amplified St. Louis' advantages during those years. Some of it was a greater level of continuity than most other teams, but much of it was due to the Redbirds' expansive and legendary farm system during the 1930s and 1940s.
The Cardinals won 106, 105 and 105 games, respectively, from 1942 to 1944, winning three NL pennants and two World Series. In 1943, the Mort Cooper-led pitching staff posted a 2.57 collective ERA, more than a half-run better than any other team.
6. 2019 New York Yankees (75.0)
Percentile ranks: 98.3 (hitting), 75.2 (baserunning), 43.2 (fielding), 48.2 (rotation), 95.4 (bullpen)
Alas! The Yankees picked the wrong season to be great. New York won 103 games but fell two games shy of the World Series, losing to Houston in the ALCS.
This Yankees team was a product of depth, with GM Brian Cashman & Co. getting elite production from role players during a season in which both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton struggled with injuries, though Judge still tied DJ LeMahieu for the team lead in bWAR. Fourteen different Yankees cracked double digits in homers and New York went deep 306 times overall.
The rotation was more serviceable than elite, but the bullpen was vicious, featuring Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle and Zack Britton at their nastiest. The first four relievers on that list all struck out 85 or more batters in fewer than 70 innings.
7. 1942 St. Louis Cardinals (74.2)
Percentile ranks: 64.1 (hitting), 67.6 (baserunning), 91.9 (fielding), 99.8 (rotation), 10.2 (bullpen)
The first of the title seasons during WWII for the Cardinals. Cooper went 22-7 with a 1.78 ERA and won the NL MVP award. St. Louis led the NL in both run scoring and ERA.
8. 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers (72.5)
Percentile ranks: 80.4 (hitting), 82.8 (baserunning), 85.3 (fielding), 91.2 (rotation), 93.8 (bullpen)
Justin Turner was at his peak in 2017, while Seager matched his Rookie of the Year 2016 production. Jansen was at his lights-out best, posting a 1.32 ERA with 109 whiffs against seven walks. And of course Kershaw was dominant, winning 18 games with league-best 2.31 ERA. The Dodgers fell one game short of the title, losing Game 7 of the World Series at home to that year's now-infamous version of the Astros.
9. 2022 Atlanta Braves (72.3)
Percentile ranks: 98.0 (hitting), 88.9 (baserunning), 66.1 (fielding), 96.7 (rotation), 97.5 (bullpen)
The 2022 Braves were the club between the 88-win 2021 team that won the World Series and the 2023 team that won 104 games with an off-the-charts offense.
The 2022 team won 101 games and had better pitching than its explosive 2023 counterparts. Jansen had arrived to close out games, leading the NL with 41 saves, doing so in front of an elite setup staff. The rotation was led by Max Fried, 21-game winner Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton and the just-emerging Spencer Strider.
The Braves fell in the NLDS to the Phillies (and did the same in 2023), but this was a better club than the one that beat Houston in the 2021 World Series.
10. 2007 Boston Red Sox (71.8)
Percentile ranks: 95.3 (hitting), 33.7 (baserunning), 52.8 (fielding), 98.6 (rotation), 99.1 (bullpen)
The 2007 Red Sox snapped a mere two-year title drought, which is not really their fault, but it's probably why they aren't viewed with the same degree of romance as their 2004 predecessors. Many of the same stars were still around and a few more had arrived.
Manny Ramirez struggled (for him) in what turned out to be his last full season in Boston, but his talent level was still elite. Dustin Pedroia won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in advance of his 2008 MVP trophy. David Ortiz finished fourth in the MVP race. Josh Beckett landed second in Cy Young balloting.
Curt Schilling was winding down but still effective. Daisuke Matsuzaka didn't reinvent pitching as some suggested he might, but he did log 204⅔ innings with a 108 ERA+. Jon Lester started to establish himself, a process he finished off in 2008. Jonathan Papelbon was an All-Star as Boston's closer.
Nos. 11 to 15
11. 2008 Boston Red Sox (71.7)
12. 1948 Brooklyn Dodgers (71.7)
13. 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers (71.4)
14. 1998 New York Yankees (71.0)
15. 1927 Philadelphia Athletics (70.7)
You'll see more versions of the Dodgers' from their ongoing current era of dominance peppered into these next few groups. Here you also get one edition of their Brooklyn forerunners, the 1948 team that was on its way to coalescing into the Boys of Summer teams of the 1950s. That was Jackie Robinson's second season and the campaign before Duke Snider was established as a regular.
Nos. 16 to 20
16. 2018 Houston Astros (70.7)
17. 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers (70.584)
18. 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates (70.576)
19. 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers (70.557)
20. 2019 Cleveland (70.5)
Two more recent Dodgers teams, another Astros squad and yet another club from 2019. The fun team from the group is clearly the 1971 Pirates, one of two championship Pittsburgh clubs from the 1970s.
This was the best statistical season for Willie Stargell, who led the NL with 48 homers and 7.9 bWAR. Roberto Clemente had 7.2 bWAR and then set the world on its ear with a scintillating performance in the World Series against Baltimore. Memorable for lots of reasons, Dock Ellis won 19 games and finished fourth in NL Cy Young balloting in 1971.
Nos. 21 to 25
21. 1993 New York Yankees (70.5)
22. 1969 Baltimore Orioles (70.1)
23. 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers (70.0)
24. 2024 Tampa Bay Rays (69.8)
25. 2004 Boston Red Sox (69.7)
The 1993 Yankees are the team that started New York's ongoing 32-year streak of winning seasons. But it's not a group that gets much love on the nostalgia front since, for a few reasons, it kind of slipped through the cracks of history.
First, it was a team that still carried the baggage from the most tumultuous part of the George Steinbrenner era, when the team wasn't just chaotic but didn't win. The 1993 club snapped a four-year streak of losing seasons in the Bronx.
Second, it's a team that because of the methodology in play for this piece might be called the Mike Stanley Yankees. On a team that featured once and future offensive stars such as Wade Boggs, Don Mattingly, Paul O'Neill, Danny Tartabull and Bernie Williams, Stanley led the team with 4.8 bWAR. Stanley enjoyed a multiyear run as an every-day catcher, with 1993 serving as his peak. He finished with 20.9 career bWAR, but in that 1993 to 1995 stretch, his right-now talent level was worthy of All-Star recognition, which he earned in 1995.
It's the kind of thing this method is meant to capture. There were a few performers like this on the '93 Yankees -- very good performers during the window before the great Joe Torre teams came together.
The following year was a validation of this team's talent level. In 1994, the Yankees really took off, posting the best record in the American League. Yet that was, of course, the year of no World Series, further suppressing the legacy of this bunch. By 1995, the page had started to turn toward the era of Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter. Thus, this turned out to be a transitional era for the Yankees -- but one that laid the foundation for a lot of special years.
Methodology
The definition of talent means different things to different people, but for our purposes here, talent means production. We need something we can measure, and innate ability, while crucial, is elusive in that regard.
So we're measuring production, in the form of bWAR and its sub-components. To address our core question about whether the Dodgers' 2025 roster is talented to a historically unusual extent, we are doing something a little different than just comparing team-level projections. We're asking: How much WAR do the Dodgers have at their disposal, as compared to all other teams?
To get there, we tried to estimate the "right now" per-rata baseline production level for each player on each team's season-opening roster. We're not interested in eventual career numbers for players on a given roster, though that is an interesting examination itself.
The right-now baselines are based on a triangulation of a player's numbers -- the measurement season, which carries the most weight, the previous season and the season after. For 2024 teams, the "season after" figures are based on 2025 STEAMER projections. For 2025 we're using STEAMER projections for the measurement season, and adjusting those with a basic aging adjustment to generate a rough 2026 forecast for "season after" numbers.
We don't have access to historical Opening Day rosters, so we used each player's first stint in a given season to assign his team for that season. (So if a player was traded from the Phillies to the Yankees during a season, for example, he'd belong with the Phillies.) This is to simulate how the teams were built, not how they reacted to the season as it played out. For 2025 teams, players on the IL were included if they are likely to see action during the campaign.
Players with below-replacement baselines were omitted from the measurements. That's because we're asking: How much WAR does the team have at its disposal? Included players are then converted to an estimated full-season WAR based on one of three primary roles: every-day position player, rotation pitcher or bullpen pitcher. (Two-way players -- mainly Babe Ruth and Shohei Ohtani -- are measured as both hitters and pitchers for seasons appropriate to do so.) This is a "how much WAR they have to offer" measurement.
Tallying up the "how much WAR they have to offer" calculations gives us our estimate for each team's available WAR -- our proxy for the right-now talent level for each team. Every team from the American League and National League since 1901 was measured by this method.