Spring training games begin Thursday, and our MLB insiders are ready to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable early buzz across the industry.
Which player has the most on the line in 2025? Which position battles will shape the season? Which rookies should be on your fantasy baseball radar? And which team is most likely to rock baseball with a spring blockbuster trade? Here's the latest intel our experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez, Kiley McDaniel and Jesse Rogers empty their notebooks on the topics that have baseball insiders talking.
Which players do those in the industry think have the most to gain (or lose) this spring?
Passan: When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rejected the Toronto Blue Jays' final attempt at locking him up to a long-term contract extension, he cemented himself atop the list of players with plenty to gain (or lose) not just this spring but the entire forthcoming year. The recent history of players turning down nine-figure deals includes smashing successes and face-palming failures.
Juan Soto rejected a $440 million contract and wound up with $819 million ($54 million over what would have been the first two years of the extension and $765 million on top of that from the Mets). Aaron Judge said no thanks to $217 million and wound up with $379 million. On the other hand, Pete Alonso saying no to $158 million only to get a deal for about one-third of that illustrates that betting on oneself still constitutes a gamble.
While the specifics of the Guerrero offer remain a mystery, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said it would've made Guerrero one of the highest-paid players in MLB. So whether it's this spring or this September or any day in between, Guerrero is playing to ensure he ends up more like Soto and Judge than like his fellow first baseman.
Gonzalez: Canvass the sport and you'll find plenty of established veterans returning from major injuries and thus facing major question marks as they navigate spring training. Among those generating the most interest are four front-line starting pitchers (Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan, Spencer Strider and Sandy Alcántara) and two dynamic outfielders (Ronald Acuña Jr. and Christian Yelich). DeGrom has made only nine starts through the first two seasons of a five-year, $185 million contract, but the Texas Rangers believe a full, healthy offseason will help him tap back into prior dominance. Ditto for the Tampa Bay Rays and McClanahan, who was one of the game's best pitchers from 2022 to 2023.
In the case of Alcántara, his health largely revolves around whether the Miami Marlins will make him available via trade -- as they have most of their established players -- at midseason. And while some executives view the Atlanta Braves as easily the Los Angeles Dodgers' biggest threats if Strider and Acuña start to round into their prior selves by the end of March, others are quick to point out how good Yelich looked in the Milwaukee Brewers' lineup -- with a .315/.406/.504 slash line through 73 games -- before undergoing the back surgery he has needed for years.
Which contender enters the spring with the most glaring hole to fill?
Castillo: The Mets don't have a glaring hole in their starting rotation, but there were some questions about the group entering spring training -- and that was before Frankie Montas was shut down for six to eight weeks with a lat strain. Can Kodai Senga stay healthy after making one start last regular season? Can Sean Manaea continue where he left off after a delivery makeover? Can Clay Holmes successfully transition from closer to starter? Can David Peterson prove his success in 2024 was not an aberration?
The Mets have depth -- so much so that they still plan on deploying a six-man rotation -- with Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill as options to fill out the group. But acquiring a front-line starter could be in the cards.
Passan: Certainly a lineup with three MVP winners and plenty of thump can withstand a position of weakness, and yet, in the American League East, where the New York Yankees operate, the margin of error is so thin, the teams so stacked, that their hole at third base stands out.
With Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving back to second base, the Yankees are trying DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza at third. LeMahieu OPS'd .527 last year, and neither Cabrera nor Peraza has carved out a full-time job three years into his big league career. Maybe one of them not only wins it but does so definitively. Perhaps it doesn't matter because Chisholm blossoms and Anthony Volpe finally breaks out offensively and Austin Wells turns into a 25-homer threat and Jasson Dominguez goes full Martian.
Rarely, though, does a team with the resources of the Yankees enter the season with as big a vacuum at a position as they do at third base. Whether the solution is one of the internal troika or a trade acquisition will reveal itself sooner than later.
What is the most interesting position battle of the spring?
Olney: The Tigers' first-base situation. Detroit drafted Spencer Torkelson with the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft, and after multiple attempts to establish him in the big leagues, the Tigers seem prepared to move on unless he hits this year. With the signing of second baseman Gleyber Torres, Detroit is moving Colt Keith to first base.
The Tigers are keeping an open mind with Torkelson, of course, so if he were to go to Lakeland and absolutely rake, they'd find room for him. But he's got to hit to stay. Last year, Torkelson batted .219 in 92 games, with a .374 slugging percentage, and theoretically, his value is in his offense, his power.
Rogers: The Astros did a good job of filling holes at first and third base this winter, but replacing Kyle Tucker is going to be a bit more difficult. Is it newcomer Ben Gamel's job to lose, or will holdover Chas McCormick win the battle? Or will someone else open some eyes during the spring and surprise everyone? Whoever wins it will undoubtedly -- and unfairly -- be compared with Tucker. Those are some big shoes to fill in Houston.
Which team is most likely to make a trade that rocks the spring?
Olney: The big spring trades usually come from teams willing to plow over their winter plans in an effort to win -- and that was the case with Dylan Cease last year when the Padres acquired him from the White Sox just before the season began.
Clearly, the Cubs know that they can do more, and that they need more, which is why they chased Alex Bregman, and ownership has been taking criticism for not investing more in trying to take down a very winnable division. The payroll has plummeted below $200 million, very much in the middle of the 30-team landscape, so if a player becomes available to the Cubs -- Nolan Arenado, perhaps? -- they would seem to have the flexibility to do something.
Rogers: Some might think San Diego fits here, but after adding Nick Pivetta, the Padres look to be loading up to compete again this year. St. Louis is my favorite to make a spring trade. Perhaps it's Nolan Arenado. Or maybe closer Ryan Helsley is on the move. Or starter Sonny Gray. There are myriad options as the Cardinals look to maximize the talent on their roster. That could come soon or in July -- or both.
Which rookies do scouts think could blow up and make an MLB roster this spring?
McDaniel: For a player who hasn't debuted yet, making the Opening Day roster means the team thinks the combination of an extra month or two of big league performance and the chance at an extra draft pick (via ROY, Cy Young, MVP voting) is greater than the benefit of extra/cheaper service time gained by leaving them in the minors.
So, for instance, a pitcher who is in Double-A but hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season yet, such as White Sox LHP Noah Schultz, just doesn't have enough 2025 upside to justify doing this, because it'll be years before he can take on a full-season workload of 32 starts. I'll also skip over players who have already made their MLB debut, along with Roki Sasaki.
All that said, here are the candidates I see fitting for this season, though some might need an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart in addition to a hot spring (listed in order of likelihood): Cubs 3B Matt Shaw, Red Sox 2B Kristian Campbell, Braves C Drake Baldwin, Red Sox OF Roman Anthony, Dodgers C/OF Dalton Rushing, Guardians OF Chase DeLauter, Dodgers SS Alex Freeland, White Sox C Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero and Pirates RHP Bubba Chandler.
Gonzalez: I'm going to add another player to Kiley's list: Christian Moore, who, yes, was drafted just last summer but also plays for a Los Angeles Angels team that has been exceedingly aggressive with young position players it considers promising. Look no further than Zach Neto, who debuted at shortstop after just 48 minor league games. Or Nolan Schanuel, who came up as a first baseman after just 22 games.
Luis Rengifo is currently slated to be the every-day second baseman, but he can also play third base (where Anthony Rendon is undergoing hip surgery and recently signed Yoan Moncada is coming off playing in just 12 games last season). The Angels will also give him a look in the outfield.
Moore's power is very real, especially for a second baseman. If he can hone his approach and put together a monster spring, few evaluators would be surprised to see the Angels carry him on their Opening Day roster.
Which injury comebacks are those across the sport watching closest?
Castillo: There are two in Atlanta who could change the National League landscape. Ronald Acuña Jr., the National League MVP in 2023 coming off a torn left ACL, and Spencer Strider, one of the top pitchers in baseball in 2023 coming off surgery to repair the UCL in his pitching elbow, are not expected to be on the Braves' Opening Day roster, but they should return early in the season. Healthy, productive versions of those two would make the Braves serious World Series contenders again.
McDaniel: There are four pitchers I'm watching closely who didn't pitch in 2024 and are expected to return early in 2025 from elbow surgery. Rays LHP Shane McClanahan and Marlins RHP Sandy Alcántara are slated to be Opening Day starters for the Florida-based clubs, and both are hoping to return to the front-line starter level they were showing before surgery. Orioles RHP Felix Bautista averaged 100.0 mph in 2023 as the Baltimore stopper and tied for the most reliever WAR in the league at 2.8. He is expected to return to anchor the Baltimore pen with an aim to be at 100% on Opening Day. Lastly, the prospect arm I'm keeping an eye on is Marlins LHP Dax Fulton, who has now had two elbow procedures but was trending like a top-100 prospect before going down in 2023.