Baseball is back. Or, to put it another way, the players are back on the fields grouped by their respective teams, frolicking on green grass in temperate climates -- all the earmarks of the annual spring training rite. But in a sense, baseball never left.
The 2024-25 hot stove season -- now mostly, but not completely, over -- was a solid one, with few droughts between important moves and some big-ticket maneuvers along the way. It's not quite as engaging as watching actual games, but it's a pretty good substitute.
All winter, move by move, I've been updating team depth charts, making educated playing-time forecasts and watching it all roll up into a way-too-early projection of the 2025 season. I even maintain my magnetic standings board during the winter, shuffling teams around as the pecking order evolves.
The last time we checked in with a Stock Watch was on the eve of the winter meetings. At the time, there had been a few splashy moves, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers signing Blake Snell, but most of the offseason jockeying lay ahead.
Now that most of that is behind us, it's time to see how MLB's updated hierarchy shakes out, at least according to one obsessive analyst's tabulation. As we go through the rankings and updated probabilities -- and how they've changed since early December -- we'll note how each club's expectation has evolved. What have teams told us through their level of activity? What do the respective fan bases expect from the season to come?
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Win average: 101.7 (Last: 100.3, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 97.4%)
Champions: 26.9% (Last: 24.4%)
Expectation: Whether you gamble on sports or not, the betting lines are a good summation of expectations. The Dodgers' current over/under for wins at ESPN BET tells it all: 104.5. I have no idea if that's a record, but what I can say is that I have a file with preseason over/under figures that go back to 2007 (which I've extracted from various online sources) and it's the highest figure during that period. It's not hard to understand why. After winning the title last fall and then dominating the winter so thoroughly that it had people wringing their hands about the state of the game, there is only one expectation in Chavez Ravine. Win it all, again.
Reality: The nature of the game is such that even a team with a thundering outlook like L.A. is an underdog to the field, at least when you're talking about winning the World Series. But if you have to pick the team most likely to pile onto the mound at the end of the 2025 Fall Classic, why would you possibly choose anyone other than the Dodgers?
2. Atlanta Braves
Win average: 96.4 (Last: 97.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 90.9% (Last: 94.4%)
Champions: 14.2% (Last: 17.9%)
Expectation: After a relatively quiet offseason, the Braves are a mild favorite in the National League East, but their perch isn't as secure on paper as it was a year ago at this time. Back then, the hottest debate in baseball was whether it was going to be the Braves or Dodgers that emerged as the new superteam, as both clubs began spring training with over/under lines that put them over 100 wins.
After Atlanta slipped into second place and battled through an injury-ravaged season, that debate is over. Atlanta will bank on an eventual return to star-level production from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider to meet this lofty projection.
Reality: Any order of predicted finish that you want to go with among the Braves, Phillies and Mets can be easily defended. And with the teams behind the Dodgers in the NL West -- San Diego and Arizona -- looking like solid wild-card contenders, hopefuls in the East can't bank on two wild-card slots being available. Atlanta needs Acuña and Strider to return to form quickly and stay there.
3. New York Yankees
Win average: 91.2 (Last: 91.3, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 77.5% (Last: 78.0%)
Champions: 10.2% (Last: 9.9%)
Expectation: To be better than last year. Look, sometimes the answers to these questions are provided by the teams themselves. The Yankees pivoted in a bold fashion after falling short in their pursuit to secure Juan Soto for the long haul, landing Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams.
Reality: We'll see if the Yankees can top 2024, but they have had a solid offseason. Fried upgrades the rotation, and it's possible that the combination of Goldschmidt and Bellinger can offset much of what was lost in Soto. New York remains a nominal leader in the American League pennant pecking order, but it would look better with Soto.
4. New York Mets
Win average: 91.0 (Last: 84.0, 11th)
In the playoffs: 76.5% (Last: 49.9%)
Champions: 6.4% (Last: 2.0%)
Expectation: Usher in a new golden age with Soto as the face of it. Hey, when you sign a guy to a $765 million contract, that has to be the plan, especially when you are coming off an NLCS appearance. For the foreseeable future, it's World Series or bust for the Mets.
Reality: Once you adjust for Citi Field, it's possible the Mets might field the most prolific offense in baseball. It was a good attack last year, but now they have Soto on board, Pete Alonso back and Mark Vientos coming off an October surge. But you've got to prevent runs, too, and the Mets' winter plan for their rotation is not exciting from a forecast standpoint. That was true even before Frankie Montas turned up with an injury, which he is wont to do. However, after helping Luis Severino and Sean Manaea regain luster last year, the Mets have reason to feel good about their pitching program. Getting a top-10 performance from this rotation would validate that sentiment.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Win average: 88.7 (Last: 88.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 70.9%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.2%)
Expectation: Win now. Win big. This wasn't an aggressive winter for the Phillies, but this remains a top-heavy, star-laden roster that is just starting to look a little long in the tooth.
Reality: Jesus Luzardo, acquired from the Marlins, shores up the back of a powerhouse rotation that will get even stronger during the summer, when Andrew Painter is ready to rock at the big league level. Max Kepler should hold down the heavy side of an outfield platoon.
Still, the Phillies will again rely on the stability of their core 26-man roster and might have to improvise throughout the season in the bullpen after losing Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman. This could be a great team, but if injuries hit the older guys, Philly could lose ground fast -- and this isn't the year to do that in the NL.
6. Houston Astros
Win average: 88.0 (Last: 90.6, 4th)
In the playoffs: 66.0% (Last: 76.5%)
Champions: 5.4% (Last: 9.3%)
Expectation: Stay in the mix. The Astros have been a yearly contender for a decade, and the numbers add up to another run at the AL East flag, though Houston will have plenty of company in that chase.
Reality: The Astros' over/under at ESPN BET sits at 86.5, so you could argue that this projection is a bit optimistic. Even so, Houston's baseline entering a season hasn't been this low in 10 years. You lose Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander from a roster and the forecasting machinery isn't going to like it.
The Astros look like they've threaded the needle -- remaining viable while iterating their next version. We will see. Having the lowest-ranked farm system in the game isn't going to help.
7. Texas Rangers
Win average: 87.7 (Last: 84.0, 11th)
In the playoffs: 63.8% (Last: 45.3%)
Champions: 5.1% (Last: 2.3%)
Expectation: Big bounce-back.
Reality: After winning it all in 2023, the Rangers entered last season with a Hall of Fame injured list, at least on the pitching side, and the health outlook never really got better. The lineup regressed in the wrong way, and the result was a season that began with a ring ceremony and ended with a sub-.500, third-place finish.
With Texas just behind Houston in this pecking order -- a rounding error from division favorite status -- things are looking up. Still: The Rangers need Jacob deGrom to hold up, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter to develop and, more than anything, they'll have to figure out a bullpen mix with a lot of possibilities and few clear-cut roles.
8. Baltimore Orioles
Win average: 87.5 (Last: 89.6, 5th)
In the playoffs: 62.3% (Last: 71.9%)
Champions: 4.9% (Last: 6.8%)
Expectation: Young stars lead the way. They kind of have to.
Reality: The Orioles painstakingly built up their farm system over a four-year period while losing games at a historic pace. The effort yielded some of the game's brightest young stars, such as MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, and the team started winning at the big league level. But three years into their contention window, the Orioles have yet to win a single postseason game.
Their work this winter was most notable by the departure of staff ace Corbin Burnes. So it's up to Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and the rest of the products of the rebuild to step up. Which, despite the lack of offseason assertiveness by the organization, can definitely happen.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Win average: 86.6 (Last: 85.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 56.4% (Last: 57.8%)
Champions: 3.1% (Last 2.4%)
Expectation: Beat the Dodgers! OK, I'm just channeling what I know hardcore Arizona fans are thinking. Realistically, that can't be the expectation -- but Arizona is better than it was last year, and better than it was in 2023, when it won the NL pennant. Division title or not, the sky is the limit for this year's Snakes.
Reality: The National League is exceedingly top-heavy, with the six best teams residing in two divisions -- three each in the East and the West. The NL Central gets a playoff entrant by default, so someone is going to be left out. So, yes, Arizona looks good on paper, but it was really good in 2024, going 89-73, and still missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. The dynamic has not changed, which in particular makes every game the Diamondbacks and Padres play against each other a big one. The most likely scenario is that one of those two teams ends up without a postseason seat.
10. Chicago Cubs
Win average: 85.5 (Last: 82.1, 15th)
In the playoffs: 56.5% (Last: 44.0%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last 1.1%)
Expectation: Win the division without committing long-term payroll.
Reality: The last part just feels right -- the Cubs are almost unbelievably risk averse when it comes to meeting the market on big, long-duration contracts, the kind that would be required to keep Tucker around for more than one year.
Maybe it's the tepid competitive landscape in their division that encourages this but if so, it ought to be the other way around. Given Chicago's financial heft, it could do to the NL Central what the Dodgers have done to the rest of baseball. Still, the seats at Wrigley will be filled as usual, and those coming out might very well see a division winner on the field.
11. Minnesota Twins
Win average: 84.5 (Last: 86.7, 7th)
In the playoffs: 49.2% (Last: 61.4%)
Champions: 2.3% (Last 4.3%)
Expectation: With the franchise on the market and the payroll hamstrung by tight purse strings, this has been a winter of limbo for the Twins. With the team's sale perhaps coming together soon, the hope is that this period of transition will end and the focus can be squarely on a team that still has contention-level talent.
Reality: While the Twins weren't spending this winter, fans in the Twin Cities can at least take solace in that the roster wasn't torn down. At least not yet. And so with the omnipresent hope for better health from Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, and the farm system in good shape, things could be much worse. The AL Central doesn't have a clear-cut favorite and any of the top four could end up on top. Minnesota is one of the top four.
12. Seattle Mariners
Win average: 84.5 (Last: 85.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 47.3% (Last: 53.7%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last 3.3%)
Expectation: That the Mariners will pitch their way into contention but, in the end, it won't lead to much. It never does.
Reality: Seattle's starting rotation is quite possibly the best in the majors. The offense, as you might have heard, lags far behind. Just how far behind is hard to pin down because the Mariners play in baseball's worst hitting environment. What we can say is the lineup needed a jolt this winter and re-signing Jorge Polanco was not it.
The silver lining is that Seattle's system is loaded with high-upside bats and it might not be long before some of them, with shortstop Cole Young probably at the vanguard, make their way to T-Mobile Park. Until then, there is little reason to think the Mariners will be anything other than what they've been.
13. Kansas City Royals
Win average: 84.4 (Last: 83.7, 13th)
In the playoffs: 48.4% (Last: 45.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last 2.1%)
Expectation: Take the next step. Last year at this time, the "next step" would have been defined as losing fewer than 100 games. After a stunning breakout in 2024, the bar has been set much higher in Kansas City.
Reality: The Royals are neck-and-neck with Minnesota as on-paper favorites in the division, though there is little separating those two or the Tigers and Guardians behind them. (Indeed, the Guardians might not be behind them at all, but we'll get to that.)
Some performance regression in K.C.'s rotation is likely, but projection systems factor that in. Kansas City should again be an elite run prevention team and being elite at anything should keep a club in the Central race. This still has been a mildly disappointing offseason for Kansas City given the opportunity the division presents and the gaping holes the Royals have on the outfield corners. Additions could come later but, for now, it looks like a missed opportunity for the Royals to bolster their odds.
14. San Diego Padres
Win average: 84.4 (Last: 85.0, 10th)
In the playoffs: 44.4% (Last: 54.3%)
Champions: 1.7% (Last 2.5%)
Expectation: Anything could happen. I hate to be so imprecise but after an offseason in which most of the focus in San Diego was on a changing ownership situation, it's still not clear just where this all is heading for the Padres.
Reality: After a winter of stasis, a late burst of activity by the typically frenetic A.J. Preller has at least shored up a roster with some of baseball's best players and other spots that looked like utter black holes. Adding Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart gives San Diego a viable rotation and even after the loss of Tanner Scott, the bullpen looks loaded in the back end. The bottom third of the lineup still looks uncertain and the Padres very much need their core offensive producers to stay healthy. It's a shaky foundation and more cracks could emerge if any payroll-clearing moves are to come.
15. Boston Red Sox
Win average: 84.1 (Last: 77.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 45.0% (Last: 16.4%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last 0.3%)
Expectation: The return of October baseball at Fenway after three seasons of treading water.
Reality: The offseason has been highly productive for Boston, with the late-winter addition of Alex Bregman serving as the cherry on top. Then the cherry kind of tumbled off as soon as someone stuck a microphone in front of Rafael Devers and he declared "third base is my position." You have to admire a player who takes pride in his job but let's face it, Devers is far from the second coming of Brooks Robinson. In fact, by the metrics -- all of them -- he has been one of the game's two or three worst hot corner defenders. The Red Sox have playoff talent but one thing we can already see: It's not going to be an easy road to navigate for manager Alex Cora.
16. Detroit Tigers
Win average: 82.8 (Last: 78.2, 20th)
In the playoffs: 40.2% (Last: 21.2%)
Champions: 1.6% (Last 0.4%)
Expectation: The tide will keep rising even if it hasn't quite come in yet. Sure, the Tigers went on a stirring late-season run and found themselves in the ALDS after dispatching with the Astros in a wild-card series. That unexpected run was a glimpse of where this group might be headed, but it wasn't necessarily a reflection of where it is right now.
Reality: Detroit had a solid winter. Sure, the Tigers missed out on signing Bregman and I, for one, thought that could have been the finishing-piece move that made them the favorite in the AL Central. Still, the youthful Tigers have upward-pointing trajectories all over the field and if a veteran presence is what's required to bring it all together, that will be clear enough in time for Detroit to address it during the season. Either way, these Bengals have only just started to roar.
17. Toronto Blue Jays
Win average: 82.7 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 38.8% (Last: 36.8%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last 1.5%)
Expectation: The beginning of the end? Admittedly, I have kind of a dark outlook on things in general, but if I were a Blue Jays fan after this winter, this is how I would feel. The disappointments piled up one after another during the offseason and have continued into the early stages of spring training. It could get worse ...
Reality: ... Or it could go way better than that. The range of outcomes for the 2025 Jays is as wide as any club in baseball. There have been some fawning things that I've read about Toronto's winter work even after coming up short in pursuits of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Roki Sasaki. I'm not seeing it; it has been an OK hot stove season for the Blue Jays but not a slam dunk. The Jays should be better than 2024 if only because of positive regression. After all, Toronto was one of baseball's most underachieving teams a year ago.
Still: If the Blue Jays stumble early and end up dealing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the bottom could fall out. Or: A walk-year Vlady goes on an MVP tear, the Jays add during the season and bolstered by a playoff run, Guerrero commits for the long haul. All of it is on the table.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Win average: 81.2 (Last: 80.4, 19th)
In the playoffs: 34.1% (Last: 35.3%)
Champions: 0.8% (Last 0.8%)
Expectation: Have you heard? The Cardinals planned to trade Nolan Arenado, whose on-going presence in St. Louis seems to loom high above the Arch like a great shadow since John Mozeliak won't stop talking about the need to deal him. So we can suppose the Cardinals would trade Arenado and lean into a Chaim Bloom-led rebuild.
Reality: Despite Mozeliak's efforts to clean the plate for Bloom, his project has been undermined by the fact that even after a winter of subtraction, the Redbirds aren't that bad. They are middling, where they've been for years. The unfortunate thing about the Cardinals' sparing approach to the present is that such a strategy makes little sense in a division too rife with mediocrity to rule anyone out as a possible champion. A thought would be to keep Arenado and sign one or two of the remaining free agent pitchers, or even a middle-of-the-order DH type like J.D. Martinez. It wouldn't take much to move the Cardinals closer to the Cubs and Brewers.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 82.0, 16th)
In the playoffs: 25.6% (Last: 34.8%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last 1.3%)
Expectation: An interesting summer in the sun and rain. What that translates to in the competitive landscape remains to be seen.
Reality: The never-ending Rays' stadium saga had a few twists and turns over the offseason. After years of this, we still don't know where this meandering path is headed, but we do know that during the summer of '25, it will pause in Tampa's Steinbrenner Field.
Will the Yankees' spring training home end up hosting actual playoff baseball? It could happen, thanks to a potentially dynamic Tampa Bay rotation infused by injury returnees such as Opening Day starter Shane McClanahan. Still, the upside of this roster will be determined by the offense because in a division this good, no prospective contender can lag on either side of the ball.
20. Milwaukee Brewers
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 81.6, 18th)
In the playoffs: 27.7% (Last: 40.9%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last 1.0%)
Expectation: At least from the outside, it seems as if a step back is the expectation. The Brewers' over/under (82.5 wins) reflects that sense perfectly. At the same time, if you think a forecast is destiny for this organization, you haven't been paying attention to the past nine years of National League baseball.
Reality: There's no doubt this is a less projection-friendly roster, one missing Willy Adames and Devin Williams from last year's NL Central champs. But the Brewers, perhaps even more so than the Rays, have a proven amoebic tendency to recoalesce into a thriving organism even when a chunk of it is removed.
Since 2016, Milwaukee has outperformed its preseason over/unders by an average of six wins per season. That number has been 10.5 during the past two seasons, the first of Matt Arnold's tenure leading the front office. Expect the Brewers to be in the thick of the NL Central race again.
21. San Francisco Giants
Win average: 79.7 (Last: 77.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 23.4% (Last: 20.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last 0.4%)
Expectation: A lovely view of the Bay beyond the right-field fence of Oracle Park. As for baseball, another summer in the middle, looking longingly at the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks, seems about right.
Reality: Obviously, those expectations are a good bet to be met, but we reserve the right to be surprised by first-time executive Buster Posey. Posey got off to a fast start, inking Willy Adames early in the free agent season, but things were more or less routine after that. That said, as much as you can say that there is upside to the signing of a 42-year-old, there is some upside to the addition of Justin Verlander. With good health, the Giants have a chance to field a top-10 rotation bolstered by good team defense. Still, a playoff push looks like a longshot. If Adames' defensive numbers don't rebound from 2024 and Verlander looks his age, this winter might be a bust.
22. Cleveland Guardians
Win average: 77.6 (Last: 82.0, 16th)
In the playoffs: 18.9% (Last: 36.9%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last 1.3%)
Expectation: A division title repeat and more. And why not? Despite having one of the game's youngest rosters, Cleveland won 92 games and came within three wins of a World Series berth. Who cares what the projections say?
Reality: Every year, as I piece together win projections with my ever-evolving team forecast model, there's at least one product of my own work that leaves me filled with existential doubt. This year's winner is this one.
In other words, I just don't buy it. I don't see how the Guardians could go from 92 wins to 78. Well, I get it. The Guardians are somehow getting even younger and last year's postseason roster is missing Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez. Other projections have Cleveland in this general range, though their over/under at ESPN Bet is 83.5, one of the bigger disparities from my baselines.
For me, this is the key: The Guardians' rotation must step up to account for the almost-certain regression from last year's dominant bullpen.
23. Cincinnati Reds
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 74.5, 24th)
In the playoffs: 14.5% (Last: 13.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.1%)
Expectation: For better or worse, there's little reason to expect anything but the same old, same old for the Reds. But that's expectation and with some of the game's most exciting young players, the Reds can at least pair that expectation with a good dose of hope.
Reality: The Reds' pitching staff has oodles of upside, particularly the rotation. Therein lies the hope that Cincinnati can rise to the top of a soft division. But the offense looks largely punchless, with run totals again likely to be inflated by Great American Ballpark.
Even if Elly De La Cruz goes into the beast mode he's capable of and even if Matt McLain returns to health and becomes an All-Star-level producer, the Reds will need more. Nevertheless, this will be a team that is both fun to watch and a breakout candidate.
24. Los Angeles Angels
Win average: 73.7 (Last: 73.7, 26th)
In the playoffs: 8.9% (Last: 8.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.1%)
Expectation: Everyone good will get hurt. Hey, optimism is fertilizer for the weeds of disappointment. You set your sights low and everything feels like good news.
Reality: At this point, snide Anthony Rendon comments are just piling on. It's just an all-around rough situation for a player who after this season, which he will sit out because of a hip injury, will be stuck at 3.7 bWAR for his six seasons in the L.A. organization -- or fewer than each of his last four years in Washington. The Angels signed a half-roster's worth of veterans to bolster their depth in hopes of making it more injury proofed. But the bottom line is that to contend, they need the top of their payroll chart to produce. That's not going to happen with Rendon but with Mike Trout changing positions for the expressed purpose of staying on the field, maybe it will happen with him. If so, that by itself would be a joy to see.
25. Tafkapko* Athletics
Win average: 73.4 (Last: 75.4, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 8.2% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.3%)
(*The artist formerly known as Philadelphia, Kansas City and Oakland.)
Expectation: Everyone will refer to them as Sac-town, whether they want it or not. That's what happens to teams in Sacramento. Just go with it. The team should be better, too.
Reality: It's never ideal when a big league team lands in a minor league park and this season, we've got two of them. Yet there is something intriguing about it, a possible callback to simpler days of yore, or something along those lines.
The A's aren't likely contenders but unlike the past few seasons, you can't rule them out, either. That's a start and if Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler go McGwire/Canseco in Sac-town, those games will be a joy to watch. They might be, anyway.
26. Pittsburgh Pirates
Win average: 73.2 (Last: 74.5, 24th)
In the playoffs: 8.9% (Last: 13.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.2%)
Expectation: Great pitching. Lackluster hitting. Massive fan frustration.
Reality: Why, Pirates, why? Paul-freaking-Skenes enters his first full MLB season with new pitches and the same old stuff, heading up a rotation that, a year from now, might be the best in the game. But such windows, when opened by a sudden outburst of pitching, are fleeting. With this staff, in this NL Central, and a throwback payroll outlook, this was the time to spend, spend, spend. But the Pirates, didn't, didn't, didn't. Instead, they traded for Spencer Horwitz, who is already hurt. So it goes.
27. Washington Nationals
Win average: 68.8 (Last: 66.7, 28th)
In the playoffs: 2.7% (Last: 2.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expectation: Noticeable improvement from a team that, when you think about it, has now been rebuilding for a long time.
Reality: The new era of the Nationals is largely at hand. CJ Abrams is established, though he still needs to stack two halves of baseball together in the same season. James Wood has arrived and should be joined in this year's outfield by Dylan Crews. Brady House should join the party before long. The pitching staff should feature MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker and other promising hurlers with live arms. More talent is on the way and the Nats hold the top pick of the next draft.
The future looks good, but 2019 is well in the rearview mirror by now and Washington needs to start winning big league games, and soon. A climb into the mid-70s is a realistic win goal.
28. Miami Marlins
Win average: 62.9 (Last: 70.2, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 4.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expectation: One last glimpse of Sandy Alcantara before he is traded for prospects. As Fitzgerald might describe it: So the Marlins beat on, fish against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the never-materializing present.
Reality: The Marlins rank 15th in Kiley McDaniel's farm system rankings even after all of their system-fattening trades the past couple of seasons. The talent base has grown, to be sure, but the dividends of this endeavor aren't likely to be manifested at the big league level this season. That the Marlins don't rank last in this projection is more an indictment of the teams behind them than it is a glimmer of hope for the good people of Miami.
29. Colorado Rockies
Win average: 57.1 (Last: 56.4, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expectation: Another lovely summer in LoDo with plenty of runs on the scoreboard. Wins? Not so much.
Reality: You just look for little green shoots. At the very least, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are keepers. Ryan McMahon is a bastion of stability. German Marquez is apparently healthy again. The Rockies are giving long looks to the young arms of prospects such as Chase Dollander, Carson Palmquist and Sean Sullivan. For now, such small victories are where hopes live.
30. Chicago White Sox
Win average: 54.2 (Last: 62.5, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expectation: Fewer losses.
Reality: The White Sox will lose fewer games, so by that low bar, the season is sure to be a success. Chicago is nowhere near turning this thing back in the right direction. In fact, they aren't finished offloading veterans, with Luis Robert Jr. a near certainty to go at the very least. No team should (or even could) be as bad as the White Sox were last season. But once you're there, you might as well stay the course because no amount of Jerry Reinsdorf's money would turn this thing around quickly. Think of it like this: The biggest year-over-year improvement during the expansion era (since 1961) was Arizona's leap from an expansion year 65 wins to 100 the season after. If the White Sox matched that improvement, they'd still go 76-86.