Even though pitchers and catchers for all 30 Major League Baseball teams report to spring training this week, dozens of free agents who played significant big league roles in 2024 remain available. The line between free agency ending and the season beginning grows blurrier by the year, and at least a dozen players are expected to get big league deals in the coming weeks.
The full picture of this winter is not clear, but it is on pace to be the second-highest-spending offseason in baseball history, with nearly $3.2 billion guaranteed already.
More than $1 billion comes from the New York Mets -- and of that, more than three-quarters belongs to Juan Soto, whose 15-year, $765 million contract set a high-dollar mark across all of professional sports. Here is how massive Soto's deal is: Combine every free agent dollar spent this winter by the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels, and Soto was guaranteed more.
That's 22 teams, 40 players and $755 million. The top eight teams, in the meantime -- the Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles -- all guaranteed nine figures in free agency and have accounted for more than 76% of the spending this winter.
It's a further reminder that the hot stove belongs to those willing to spend. There is time for the stragglers to catch up and enough talent to reshape the playoff picture around the league. Here are the answers to half a dozen questions that remain.
1) Where will Alex Bregman go?
He's certainly not lacking suitors. Among the teams that have shown -- and continue to show -- interest in the 30-year-old third baseman are the Tigers, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Cubs. Before we assess the seriousness of their pursuits of Bregman, though, here's some necessary context.
Signing Bregman, who has sought a deal of at least six years, is not just about what he does in 2025. Free agency often factors in future classes of available players -- and the next two winters offer few infielders who have posted more than 4.0 wins above replacement at least once in the past five years.
Next year, the players who reach that bar are shortstop Bo Bichette, second baseman Luis Arraez, infielder Ha-Seong Kim and third baseman Eugenio Suarez. In the winter of 2026-27, it's second baseman Brandon Lowe, second baseman Nico Hoerner, second baseman Jonathan India and shortstop J.P. Crawford. None has done it each of the past three seasons like Bregman has. Only Bichette and perhaps Philadelphia third baseman Alec Bohm have the potential to. The paucity of infield talent available for dollars -- and not the bevy of prospects it typically takes to land such a player via trade -- could cajole a team into ending the tap dancing around Bregman's free agency.
Now, it's worth noting most of the teams pursuing Bregman have reasons not to commit. The Tigers have a former top-100 prospect (Jace Jung) and a good platoon partner for him (Matt Vierling) at third. The Astros acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs to play third. The Red Sox's best hitter (Rafael Devers) is a third baseman, and they've got two high-ceiling infield prospects on the way in Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. The Cubs' best prospect, Matt Shaw, plays second and third. And the Blue Jays really have no excuse, beyond a luxury tax payroll already around $270 million that would leap into Steve Cohen tax territory with Bregman.
For all the blather about Bregman being a Daikin Park creation (yes, the Astros' ballpark has a new name in 2025), his career OPS is higher on the road. And for all the concern about him turning 31 just after Opening Day, Bregman's skill set -- well above average in the field and on the basepaths, and elite bat-to-ball ability at the plate -- is the sort that can age gracefully.
There are mitigating factors, of course. He's not the hitter he was in 2018 and 2019. An outlay north of $150 million in February or March is rare. (The last to get such a deal in a nonlockout year were Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in 2019.) Teams have been happy to wait on Bregman and challenge him to find a deal for more than the six years and $156 million he turned down from Houston earlier this offseason.
He has backers. Red Sox manager Alex Cora wants Bregman badly, and the Red Sox guaranteeing only $52.3 million to free agents this winter has done little to reinvigorate a fan base still smarting from half a decade of relative penny-pinching. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch saw Bregman at his apex during his time in Houston, and a clubhouse as young as Detroit's could benefit greatly from the arrival of one of the most intelligent baseball minds among active players. Astros players want Bregman to return so badly that star Jose Altuve has volunteered to shift to left field so Bregman can take over at second. The Blue Jays' third-base job currently belongs to Ernie Clement. And as much as the Cubs regard Bregman as an if-the-price-drops target, he could be the difference between a National League Central title and another playoff-free October.
Whether Bregman is willing to pivot off his desire for a long-term deal likely will be subject to market forces. But he has waited 3½ months already. If waiting a little longer is enough to convince a team to meet his price, it will have been well worth it. And if not, we'll find out how strictly Bregman adheres to his long-term ask rather than opting for a shorter-term deal with early opt-outs.
2) What about Nolan Arenado -- are the Cardinals going to deal him or anyone else?
The fallout from Bregman's staring contest extends well beyond him. Three years after joining St. Louis, Arenado wants to be traded, and the Cardinals would like to oblige. Just for the right price. With the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers seen as long shots to make a move for Arenado, an eight-time All-Star third baseman, the Red Sox remain the landing spot that makes the most sense. Though Arenado used his no-trade clause to block a deal to Houston this winter, he would waive it to end up in Boston, according to sources.
The Red Sox have yet to bite, not only because of the consequences of such a move -- Devers shifting to a near-full-time designated hitter role -- but because the Cardinals have not budged enough on the money they're willing to send with the remaining three years and $64 million on Arenado's contract.
Moving Arenado could force St. Louis to eat upward of half the money he is owed. Short of that, Boston's interest is iffy. Such posturing, of course, is the domain of the winter -- and when something looks dead one day, it can come back to life the next. (Pete Alonso's return to the Mets, for example.) Still, for a team that values its analytical model as much as Boston does, deviating from it is not Boston's style. The Red Sox will set a number they're willing to take on. And either there will or won't be a deal.
Why St. Louis hasn't been more aggressive in dealing its bevy of talent -- from Arenado to starters Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde to closer Ryan Helsley to young players (Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman) who have hit a wall -- is confounding executives around the industry. If the Cardinals aren't going to spend -- and they haven't spent a dollar in free agency -- surely, the thinking goes, they should leverage the players they've got now and start building toward something more.
Instead, they are seemingly content to run it back, even if that means the awkwardness of Arenado returning. The Cardinals have prepared for that possibility -- and are content after a mediocre season in which they lost nearly 400,000 fans with another uninspiring winter. It's an organization stuck in neutral, a feeling that led to John Mozeliak announcing he will step away after the 2025 season and yielding the team's president of baseball operations job to former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.
The Cardinals' direction will become clearer when owner Bill DeWitt Jr. decides whether to kick in more money to facilitate an Arenado deal. Just how willing he is to do so will become clearer in the coming days and weeks.
3) Who's the best free agent pitcher available?
Right-hander Nick Pivetta radiates talent, and teams' pitching models adore his stuff. Teams in need of more starting pitching -- the Cleveland Guardians, the San Diego Padres, even Boston, where the 32-year-old Pivetta spent the past five years -- are obvious fits.
The type of contract Pivetta is seeking, in the meantime, is of great interest to those considering pursuing him. When a player remains a free agent on the cusp of spring training, teams smell blood in the water and start offering bargain-basement deals. Even saddled by the qualifying offer and its accompanying draft-pick compensation, Pivetta's potential is so much higher than his fellow remaining free agents' that he can hold firm at a strong multiyear ask.
Worst-case scenario, Pivetta could wait until mid-July, upon the conclusion of the MLB draft and thus the expiration of a draft-pick penalty for signing him. Such a possibility is minimal. Whether it's in the next few days or by the end of the month when spring pitching injuries inevitably crop up, Pivetta's market will emerge and he'll be rewarded accordingly. Even if he never has finished a full season with an ERA below 4.00, Pivetta is coming off a season in which he struck out 172 and walked 36. And pitchers with nearly 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratios and premium stuff always find a willing partner.
4) What about the rest of the pitching market?
There are plenty of familiar names on the pitching market, both starters and relievers. Clayton Kershaw's return to the Dodgers is a fait accompli. Andrew Heaney is staying ready at his pitching lab in Oklahoma. Kenley Jansen and David Robertson could still close almost anywhere. And that's just the beginning of available arms in the rotation and bullpen.
Want a bulk starter? Jose Quintana and Kyle Gibson each threw around 170 innings last year. Want stuff? Spencer Turnbull and Jakob Junis each have well-above-average sliders. Want a veteran? Ross Stripling, Ryan Yarbrough and Chris Flexen are all there to be had. Want an injury comeback with upside? Sign John Means or Anthony DeSclafani.
Maybe bullpen help is more what your team needs. Want a closer? Kyle Finnegan has 88 saves over the past four seasons. Want a lefty reliever? Andrew Chafin, Colin Poche, Brooks Raley, Drew Smyly and Jalen Beeks are available. Want a righty reliever? There are plenty worse than Scott Barlow, Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Buck Farmer and Lance Lynn, who told The Athletic it would be "fun" to go to the bullpen after starting 340 of his 364 career games.
Teams recognize the necessity of pitching depth, and at this point in the winter, the question becomes simple: Do they see all the remaining pitching as more or less interchangeable and thus worthy of only a minor league contract with no guaranteed money, or are they willing to plop down a low-seven-figure sum on a major league deal to ensure they land the player?
Kershaw will do fine, as will Heaney and Jansen and Robertson. Others will scrape by in hopes of parlaying a one-year deal into a multiyear contract next winter. And the rest will need to earn a spot on a big league roster, knowing that nearly every organization has younger, harder-throwing pitchers they want to give a crack.
5) Are there any more big league deals coming for hitters?
Maybe a handful. Almost every position player who warrants a full-time job is signed. If a team is looking for an impact bat, it's not likely to find it in free agency beyond Bregman.
J.D. Martinez went through this rigmarole last year, signing with the Mets on March 23, and again he's a free agent with spring training here. Martinez, 37, almost immediately slotted into the heart of New York's order and remained there most of the season. He was still an above-average hitter last year. Outfielder Alex Verdugo might not be a full-time player, but he's certainly a big leaguer. As is infielder Jose Iglesias after slashing .337/.381/.448 in 291 plate appearances for the Mets.
Others who performed enough last year or can reasonably pursue a big league deal because of their history: first baseman Justin Turner, catcher James McCann, outfielder Mark Canha, infielder Paul DeJong, infielder Brendan Rodgers (who's down 15 pounds), outfielder Manuel Margot, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Adam Duvall and catcher Yasmani Grandal.
This wasn't a good class of bats before free agency started, and this deep into it, the pickings are especially slim for big impact outside of Bregman.
6) Will there be a big spring training trade?
Trades this time of year are as much about necessity as anything, and by mid-March, contenders will know what they need. If it's a center fielder, the White Sox are still willing to listen to offers for Luis Robert Jr. If it's a frontline starting pitcher, Seattle will entertain the idea so long as an impact bat comes back. And if it's a veteran who can eat innings, the Yankees have been trying for months to move Marcus Stroman.
If you're looking for a blockbuster, though, remember that there have been a lot of trades. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Ryan Pressly to the Cubs. Closer Devin Williams and outfielder Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. Left-hander Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox. First baseman Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. Second baseman Andres Gimenez to the Blue Jays. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs to the A's. First baseman Jake Burger to the Rangers.
Certainly, a deal involving Arenado, who can bolster his Hall of Fame case with a couple of big years in his 30s, would qualify. As would anyone leaving St. Louis at this point.
Most eyes in the game are trained on the Cardinals and Padres, who, with swashbuckling GM A.J. Preller, are always open to discussing deals. They are acutely so this year, with a budget crunch amid a legal battle for ownership between the brothers of late Padres owner Peter Seidler and his widow. San Diego has spent $4.5 million in free agency this winter, ahead only of the three teams that haven't signed a fully guaranteed big league deal: Miami, Milwaukee and St. Louis.
Getting Pivetta, for example, could free up the Padres to move either Dylan Cease or Michael King, both right-handers set to hit free agency after this season. (King is far less likely to be dealt, according to sources.) San Diego also has listened to offers for closer Robert Suarez, an understandable tack considering the Padres' bullpen depth -- Jason Adam could step in to close -- as well as Suarez's ability to opt out of the final two years of his contract next winter.
Oh, and for those who think perhaps Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would become available if he can't come to terms on a contract extension before his Feb. 18 deadline: The Blue Jays continue to insist to other executives that the slugger isn't going anywhere. There is a price for everyone, yes, but Guerrero's would be exceptionally high.