Is your favorite MLB franchise getting hotter or colder? Or is it stuck in the tepid middle?
This time last year, we took a literal stance on such questions, assigning a team temperature to each club that serves as a state-of-the-organization snapshot. All that matters is winning or losing and how trends in those categories fit within the context of the franchise's history.
With the hot stove season moving past the baseball equinox (that is, spring training is now closer than the end of the World Series), it's time to update those numbers.
How hot -- or cold -- is your team?
(What exactly is franchise temperature? Click here for our methodology.)
Jump to a team:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (215.1°)
2024 change: +45.5°
10-year change: +136.0° since 2015
Franchise peak: 222.5° in 1966
Franchise nadir: 21.6° in 1938
With their 2024 World Series win, the Dodgers regain their status as baseball's hottest franchise after a two-year run for the Astros. With a second championship to show for L.A.'s ongoing 12-year run of postseason appearances, the Dodgers are reaching historic territory.
It's hard to imagine a franchise matching what the Yankees did between 1921 and 1964. Too much has changed -- more teams, many more playoff slots, a different economic model, etc. But the Dodgers might be in the midst of coming as close to that as any organization can in the 21st century.
With their franchise temperature climbing over 212 degrees, the Dodgers are now officially boiling over. It's just the second time they've reached this level, with the other golden era being the years that straddled their move from Brooklyn to Chavez Ravine.
Not many franchises have ever gotten this hot. Only the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox and Giants have reached the boiling point, and only the Yankees and Dodgers have done it since the late 1940s. (The Astros, had they won last year's title, would have become the sixth.)
The Dodgers will enter the 2025 season as the favorite to win it all once again, and they project in my system to do so. If it happens, L.A. will usurp the Boys of Summer squads and the early California teams of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale, staking claim to the greatest epoch of Dodgers baseball yet.
On top of all that: There is zero evidence this dynastic window will close for the Dodgers any time in the foreseeable future.
2. Houston Astros (184.6°)
2024 change: -10.9°
10-year change: +136.6° since 2015
Franchise peak: 201.0° in 2022
Franchise nadir: 31.5° in 1978
The Astros can still get to the boiling point with a title in 2025, but it feels like their 2022 championship is going to stand as Houston's franchise peak for some time to come. With their most recent season ending in a wild-card sweep at the hands of the Tigers, the Astros posted their lowest season value since they emerged from their rebuild in 2015. When you reach the level Houston did, it takes years to truly cool off. But it seems the Astros are in the beginning stages of doing just that.
3. New York Yankees (162.0°)
2024 change: +16.7°
10-year change: -23.1° since 2015
Franchise peak: 399.6° in 1962
Franchise nadir: 27.2° in 1918
With their first pennant in 15 years, the Yankees put up their highest season value since their 2009 World Series championship. They also have staved off, for now, seeing their franchise temperature drop below that of any season since the pre-Jeter era. Indeed, things might once again be on the upswing, as even without Juan Soto, New York is the nominal favorite to repeat as the American League pennant winner. If that were to happen, the Yankees would replace Houston as the AL's hottest franchise.
4. Atlanta Braves (127.4°)
2024 change: -5.1°
10-year change: +42.5° since 2015
Franchise peak: 174.0° in 1999
Franchise nadir: 13.2° in 1945
The Braves reached their franchise peak with their 1999 pennant, the last flag for the Bobby Cox-era dynasty. This era of Braves success will be hard-matched to reach that level, if only because competition from the rich and powerful Dodgers and Mets isn't likely to ebb anytime soon. The Braves are still in the midst of a long run of good seasons, but they'll need to tack on a few playoff wins to keep their temperature from continuing a slow decline that began after the 2021 title.
5. Boston Red Sox (122.0°)
2024 change: -6.8°
10-year change: -26.5° since 2015
Franchise peak: 216.7° in 1918
Franchise nadir: 25.6° in 1966
The Red Sox remain a historically elite franchise, but after season values of zero, zero and five points, they are losing ground in this longest of races. Only the season-ending win against the Rays, which gave Boston a break-even 81 wins, prevented a third straight zilch in the season category. The cooling has been rapid since Boston became baseball's hottest franchise after its 2018 World Series win, reaching that status for the first time in a century. Now, while Boston's 122 degrees keeps it in MLB's top five for now, it's the Red Sox's lowest score since before their 2004 curse-ending championship.
6. St. Louis Cardinals (109.2°)
2024 change: -5.5°
10-year change: -66.2° since 2015
Franchise peak: 235.8° in 1946
Franchise nadir: 18.2° in 1920
The Cardinals' season shutout in 2023 (a below-.500 record) was their first in 16 years. Last season, a bounce-back to 83 wins was better, but no one around St. Louis is satisfied by that. And so, change is afoot and the Cardinals enter 2025 in a transitional mode. Most likely, this will mean a continuation of an ever-lengthening cooling period in St. Louis. The 109.2-degree mark is the franchise's lowest in 20 years, and a losing mark in the season to come would drop St. Louis below 100 degrees. The question: How long will this usually sizzling franchise go on like this?
7. Philadelphia Phillies (96.4°)
2024 change: +2.4°
10-year change: +7.0° since 2015
Franchise peak: 125.8° in 2011
Franchise nadir: 4.2° in 1948
The past couple generations of Phillies fans might be a bit spoiled. But the generations that came before endured a franchise stuck below freezing for a four-decade stretch that didn't end until the late 1960s. Not even a pennant in 1950 lifted this once-Arctic franchise above 32 degrees. In that context, the current era looks pretty good.
The Phillies' win total has grown each season since 2020, and over the past three campaigns, Philadelphia has played in 34 postseason games. What the team hasn't done is break through with what would be the third title in the history of a franchise entering its 125th modern-era season.
The competition is fierce, but these Phillies are good enough to make that happen. If they did, Philadelphia would surpass the Chase Utley-Ryan Howard era and establish a new franchise peak. So, you might say, there is a lot on the line for the 2025 Phils.
8. Texas Rangers (90.4°)
2024 change: -9.1°
10-year change: +16.1° since 2015
Franchise peak: 99.6° in 2023
Franchise nadir: 20.0° in 1988
In a system like this, when you win a championship there is nowhere to go but down. That is unless you win one again, and the Rangers most certainly did not do that. In fact, Texas' drop below .500 gave the franchise its seventh losing season over the past eight years. Seven losing seasons and one championship. It's an odd pattern. Still, you don't completely cool from a World Series win right away, and if the Rangers can return to the Fall Classic in 2025, they'd reach 100 degrees for the first time, win or lose.
9. San Francisco Giants (90.3°)
2024 change: -9.1°
10-year change: -83.0° since 2015
Franchise peak: 219.5° in 1924
Franchise nadir: 32.0° in 1985
The Giants are in a very different place since their run of three titles in five seasons ended with their 2014 World Series championship. They now are working on a streak of three straight seasons at .500 or worse and have won just two playoff games over the past eight seasons. It's been a mystifyingly tepid decade for one of the game's flagship organizations, and the gap between San Francisco and the NL's other heavyweights -- particularly the one in Los Angeles -- has become a chasm.
10. Tampa Bay Rays (82.8°)
2024 change: -8.3°
10-year change: +25.0° since 2015
Franchise peak: 91.2° in 2023
Franchise nadir: 30.4° in 2007
The Rays' five-year run of playoff appearances ended in 2024, Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017. Thus the Rays fell back from what was their new franchise peak after 2023. With a roster looking a lot healthier and more robust, at least on the pitching side, the 2025 Rays have a chance to start moving things back in the right direction. They'd need at least a pennant, though, to establish a new organizational high point.
11. Cleveland Guardians (73.9°)
2024 change: +4.7°
10-year change: +23.9° since 2015
Franchise peak: 101.9° in 1954
Franchise nadir: 10.7° in 1993
The Guardians' success has been an every-other-year proposition lately, but you can tell from their 10-year temperature change that this is a steady, solid franchise. A title would push Cleveland to its historical apex, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Cleveland has played in 17 postseason games and won eight of those over the past three years. It's modest success, but still success. But when you look at the way the organization seems to increasingly lean into young players, you wonder when or if it can transcend the middle class, no matter how intelligently the Guardians might be operated.
12. Chicago Cubs (70.8°)
2024 change: -1.6°
10-year change: +33.9° since 2015
Franchise peak: 180.6° in 1910
Franchise nadir: 14.4° in 1983
Back-to-back winning seasons have slowed a Cubs temperature decline that began after the last era peaked with the 2016 title. Still, Chicago hasn't won a playoff game since 2017, and the franchise feels mired in a bit of a malaise. Chicago is positioned to contend for the NL Central title in 2025. A return to the postseason would be a necessary first step for the Cubs to climb back toward 100 degrees -- a level they haven't reached since 1940 -- but to truly make a leap, they need to not only get into the playoffs, but they also need to win a few games when they get there.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks (68.6°)
2024 change: -1.4°
10-year change: +10.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 125.6° in 2001
Franchise nadir: 42.0° in 2022
The 2023 pennant marked a significant leap for the franchise. Arizona was a better team in 2024 but missed the playoffs because of a tiebreaker despite winning 89 games. Still, the Diamondbacks remain at a level from which they can become truly hot. They need two such seasons to match the early success of the franchise, but the talent is on hand for Arizona's current group to enter into a new golden era. Or, like a number of other solid NL franchises without the economic might of the Dodgers, Mets and Phillies, the D-backs could get stuck on the second tier. Winning in October -- or not -- will determine which way this goes.
14. Washington Nationals (67.7°)
2024 change: -6.8°
10-year change: +28.0° since 2015
Franchise peak: 109.5° in 2019
Franchise nadir: 17.1° in 2011
The Nationals continue to cool in the wake of their 2019 title. Washington seems positioned to move toward contention sooner than later, but for now, we haven't seen that translate to the end-of-season standings. Last year marked Washington's fifth straight losing campaign, and the Nationals finished with 71 wins for the second year in a row, albeit with a slightly better run differential. This would need to go on for a few more years for them to slip below freezing, which is where they were a few years after relocating from Montreal. The current uptick in talent seems to suggest that won't happen, but we need to see that potential pay off in wins and a return to the playoffs, if not in 2025, then soon after.
15. Milwaukee Brewers (57.5°)
2024 change: +3.0°
10-year change: +25.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 70.4° in 1982
Franchise nadir: 15.4° in 2004
The Brewers have played almost no meaningless regular-season games over the past eight seasons, a testament to the consistent success of this organization. The past six seasons have yielded a playoff record of 2-12, however, and that has made their temperature rise very slowly despite all of the winning campaigns. In fact, this franchise has never been at room temperature. The Brewers can get there in 2025 with a true breakthrough season -- as in a pennant. Once again, though, as with the Padres, Diamondbacks, Cubs and other NL hopefuls, that will mean knocking off some franchises that pound Milwaukee into submission from a payroll standpoint.
16. Kansas City Royals (57.1°)
2024 change: +5.2°
10-year change: -49.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 121.6° in 1985
Franchise nadir: 15.1° in 2012
They're alive! Kansas City's stunning return to the playoffs snapped a string of seven straight losing seasons or, in the parlance of this model, zero-value campaigns. One breakthrough season doesn't lift a cooling franchise back above room temperature, however, and Kansas City needs to turn 2024 into a trend. While the Royals are decidedly on a tier below the top contenders across baseball from an early forecast standpoint, they are firmly in the group of four AL Central hopefuls. If Kansas City can emerge from that pack, it can become the division's warmest club. It's a start.
17. New York Mets (57.0°)
2024 change: +9.7°
10-year change: -8.5° since 2015
Franchise peak: 104.3° in 1973
Franchise nadir: 39.2° in 2014
The Mets' run to the National League Championship Series gave them their highest season value since reaching the 2015 World Series. With the Juan Soto era beginning this spring, they are poised to do so much more. This has always been a franchise with strange patterns. Its early level of historic losing was halted with a World Series win in 1969. The best single-season team was the 1986 champs, but the franchise soon after entered into a long, tortured mediocrity. Now, with Steve Cohen's wealth and will lighting the way, the Mets seem positioned for their most prolific era of sustained winning. Two years from now, we might be talking about a franchise at its peak, with a trajectory arrow still pointing up. But such rosy outlooks for the Mets have come apart before.
18. Athletics (51.2°)
2024 change: -5.2°
10-year change: -12.4° since 2015
Franchise peak: 207.1° in 1914
Franchise nadir: 9.8° in 1967
With the Athletics' long run in Oakland now at an end, the organization sits between the heights of Connie Mack in Philadelphia and the depths of Charlie Finley in Kansas City. No franchise has vacillated so consistently between the penthouse and the basement. Between the two is ... Sacramento? We'll see. The A's were a much-improved club in 2024, and for reasons more practical than competitive are in the process of bolstering an emergent young core with a few decent veterans. The three-year streak of zero-value seasons is typical for this franchise, which rarely has an out-of-the-blue season of either winning or losing. It all comes in strings of one or the other. That's good when the winning starts, but it remains to be seen if the A's are ready to do that this year.
19. Toronto Blue Jays (49.1°)
2024 change: -5.0°
10-year change: -5.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 162.2° in 1993
Franchise nadir: 44.6° in 1982
Last season was a major step back for the Blue Jays, who haven't won a postseason game since 2016. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entering a possible walk season, this version of a post-rebuild Toronto squad might become obsolete before it ever really does anything. The Blue Jays have enough talent to contend in 2025 and still have a chance to make impact additions this winter. But if the wheels were to come off, forcing another organizational reset, it's very possible the Blue Jays might reach their lowest point yet in the next year or two. That's the franchise temperature system of course. Other teams have much worse composite regular-season winning percentages, but winning in the playoffs is rewarded here more than treading in the middle, and the Blue Jays have been stuck here more or less since they last won the World Series in 1993.
20. Minnesota Twins (49.1°)
2024 change: +0.6°
10-year change: +5.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 115.6° in 1991
Franchise nadir: 11.3° in 1961
The recent-generation Twins in a nutshell: a slow and consistent level of cooling after Minnesota won the 1991 World Series, its second title in five years. That was the franchise peak -- and that includes its many decades in Washington. Things grew increasingly chilly during a six-year period of losing that ended in 2017. But even as the Twins have reentered the AL's upper middle class, they haven't won enough in October to really get the teapot percolating. Minnesota has felt on the cusp of having a true breakout for a few years now, but a lack of more impactful spending is a problem. The Twins are smartly run, but things will remain tepid in the Twin Cities until they play deep into the postseason.
21. Detroit Tigers (46.4°)
2024 change: +7.4°
10-year change: -32.2° since 2015
Franchise peak: 125.1° in 1945
Franchise nadir: 21.7° in 2005
For most of last summer, everything pointed to Detroit posting its eighth straight zero-value season, which would have dropped the Tigers closer to freezing than they'd been since the annual debacles the franchise endured at the beginning of this century. A spirited second-half run got the Tigers over .500 for the first time since 2016 and into the playoffs. Once there, the Tigers won four games, their first postseason wins since 2013. With one of the game's youngest rosters, Detroit is poised to heat up rapidly from here. Another splash this winter might be just the thing to create that spark.
22. San Diego Padres (45.1°)
2024 change: +7.6°
10-year change: +19.8° since 2015
Franchise peak: 65.4° in 1970
Franchise nadir: 17.2° in 2019
The Padres are warming up, but they've been here before. San Diego is a franchise that has had its high points and memorable players but has also seen long epochs of high-level losing. The Padres reached their low point after a 92-loss season in 2019, got above freezing with a run to the NLCS in 2022 and continue to generate momentum. San Diego is another franchise poised to create a new apex with a deep October run. A pennant would do it by this system, but if the Padres went one step beyond that and won their first title, no one would need a system to identify the high point in Padres baseball.
23. Baltimore Orioles (41.7°)
2024 change: +3.5°
10-year change: -1.6° since 2015
Franchise peak: 165.0° in 1983
Franchise nadir: 5.0° in 1959
With a streak of three straight winning seasons intact, the past two of which landed the Orioles in the postseason, Camden Yards has become a more pleasant venue. Alas, the speed of the warming has been slowed considerably by the lack of a single playoff win during those resurgent campaigns. The Orioles should continue to add temperature for the next few years. There's too much talent on hand not to at least do that much. But for this to become a new golden era for the Browns/Orioles franchise, Baltimore needs to win in the playoffs. For now, all we can say is that things aren't as bad for the Orioles as they were a few years ago.
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24. Chicago White Sox (37.2°)
2024 change: -3.7°
10-year change: -14.1° since 2015
Franchise peak: 122.0° in 1919
Franchise nadir: 16.6° in 1950
The franchise temperature system rewards high-level winning much more than it penalizes dreadful levels of losing. Either you have a winning season, or you don't. Thus, the White Sox's record 121-loss season is but another losing campaign for a franchise edging toward the freezing mark. What the magnitude of losing does mean is that there is a long, long way to go before Chicago can start to push things back in the right direction. A new franchise low point is unlikely -- that's how bad things were in the decades after the Black Sox scandal -- but frigid temperatures seem inevitable.
25. Seattle Mariners (36.8°)
2024 change: +1.8°
10-year change: +10.7° since 2015
Franchise peak: 65.4° in 1978
Franchise nadir: 20.7° in 1990
We have all had fun with Jerry Dipoto's comments about trying to win 54% of the time, but they are worth thinking about. Dipoto was referring to 10-year measurements, with the assumption being that within that time frame, you'd have a breakout playoff season or two. And you'd do it without really bottoming out. Well, the Mariners are the wrong franchise to take that approach, at least from a historical perspective. The Mariners didn't get to .500 until their 15th season and didn't get to the playoffs until Year 19. They still have never been to the World Series.
This organization is desperate for high-level winning, and desperation typically leads to a certain level of boldness. Seattle's past 23 seasons have yielded two playoff wins. Over Dipoto's time as Seattle's chief baseball exec, the Mariners have won 51.2% of the time. The standard of deviation in wins during those seasons is relatively low, which is really the problem. When you aim for the middle, don't be surprised when you land there. With risk comes at least the possibility of reward, and an organization that has never won anything really doesn't have that much to lose.
26. Miami Marlins (32.0°)
2024 change: -3.2°
10-year change: -14.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 118.2° in 2003
Franchise nadir: 31.1° in 2022
Come on, Marlins -- people go to Florida to get away from freezing temperatures. After Miami landed a wild-card slot in 2023, the bottom dropped out because of injuries and the reaction to them, which was to trade everyone in sight. This could well pay off eventually, but the near term looks bleak. The Marlins ended 2024 only a hairsbreadth above the franchise nadir. If Miami ends up anywhere near its 2025 forecast, well, when is the last time it snowed on South Beach?
27. Los Angeles Angels (30.8°)
2024 change: -3.1°
10-year change: -42.3° since 2015
Franchise peak: 92.4° in 2009
Franchise nadir: 22.6° in 1977
Since 2016, two of the five highest aggregate OPS+ figures belong to Mike Trout (176, first) and Shohei Ohtani (157, fifth). Ohtani also won a lot of games and contended for a Cy Young Award during that span for the Angels before moving across town to win a World Series with the hottest team in these rankings. Despite all of that star power, the Angels are working on a streak of nine straight zero-value seasons. Last year's 99 losses were a franchise record. This winter, the Angels were aggressive early on in adding midlevel veterans to raise the floor and bolster the depth of the roster. The problem is: It's not clear this depth is supporting any kind of a winning foundation. If you raise the floor and the ceiling is too low, aren't you then just lying down?
28. Cincinnati Reds (28.9°)
2024 change: -2.9°
10-year change: -8.7° since 2015
Franchise peak: 187.5° in 1976
Franchise nadir: 19.8° in 1917
The Reds have a long and proud history. Cincinnati is a great baseball town and a cheery place to take in a ballgame. These things make it sometimes hard to remember just how consistent the Reds have been at losing baseball games for a very long time now. Since the Reds won the 1990 World Series, they've won just five playoff games, roughly an average of one playoff win every seven years. Thus a franchise that was baseball's hottest after winning back-to-back crowns in 1975 and 1976 has slowly slipped into an extended ice age. There are lots of reasons to be hopeful about where the Reds are right now in terms of having a growing group of high-ceiling players. But we need to see this turn into a true breakout season before we can really be excited about it.
29. Colorado Rockies (22.9°)
2024 change: -2.3°
10-year change: -10.9° since 2015
Franchise peak: 67.4° in 1995
Franchise nadir: 22.9° in 2024
What really can you say? No team was at its apex after last season's results. Only one team reached its nadir: This one. My current 2025 projections also see the Rockies as the worst team in the NL. It's very cold in the Rockies and likely to get colder. Hopefully the skiing will be good.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates (17.0°)
2024 change: -1.7°
10-year change: -16.7° since 2015
Franchise peak: 135.4° in 1979
Franchise nadir: 12.1° in 2012
Three playoff wins since Barry Bonds left Pittsburgh after the 1993 season. Sigh. This is another great baseball city with a fine venue for taking in a ballgame and a long, storied history. It's also another city that has seen far too much losing. For all the excitement we might be able to conjure about Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes-led rotation, we are still confronted by the realities of the franchise as it stands. This winter, a roster desperate for impact bats has added Spencer Horwitz. Horwitz should help, but through no fault of his, that's damning with faint praise. What exactly is this franchise (well, its owner) waiting for? On the bright side, if Pittsburgh can muster five more wins than its total in both 2023 and 2024 (76), there is a decent chance it will pass Colorado on these rankings.
Methodology: What is franchise temperature, anyway?
Our franchise temperature metric is inspired by the concept developed by Bill James, which measures how hot (or not) a team or hitter is at any point during a season. The franchise temperature approach uses a similar method to consider teams through the lens of season-over-season success, or lack thereof.
To get there:
1. The starting point for each franchise is 72 degrees Fahrenheit, or room temperature, for its inaugural season, which cannot be anointed as either the franchise's peak or nadir in this system. From there, each season's beginning temperature is 90.85% of the previous season's total. That enigmatic-looking standard was calibrated so that the overall average team temperature since 1901 falls at exactly 72 degrees.
2. Starting with that season-beginning total, teams warm up with degrees based on what they accomplish during the season. Non-playoff teams with losing records earn nothing -- they are in cooling mode. More successful teams earn five degrees for posting a winning season but also get a three-degree bonus if they hit 95 wins per 162 games. (Ninety-five wins is the level at which more than half of teams historically have finished in first place -- 55% to be precise.) Teams earn two bonus degrees for a postseason berth, plus one degree for each postseason win. The largest bonuses are 15 degrees for a pennant, and 25 degrees for a championship.
3. The different weights given to these bonuses were calibrated so that high-level recent success can heat up a franchise pretty quickly. But no matter how hot you are, you can dip down to chilly temperatures fairly quickly if you don't avoid a string of losing seasons. Sustained consistency -- whether it's in the form of winning or losing -- is a major factor in this metric. But even more important is getting into the postseason and doing something once you get there.
4. The all-time high franchise temperature is a scalding 399.6 degrees, set by the 1962 Yankees, who boiled over thanks to a 40-year spree during which the Bombers won 25 pennants and 20 World Series. On the flip side, the all-time low temperature is an arctic 4.2 degrees, set by the 1948 Phillies, who over a 16-year span finished in the second division of the NL in every campaign, lost 100 or more games six times and finished seventh or eighth (out of eight) 14 times. Both of those extreme clubs illustrate how quickly things can change. Four years after their apex, the Yankees tumbled into last place in the AL. Two years after their nadir, the Phillies won the NL pennant.
5. The distribution of this metric from team to team is set up to be wide, so that teams can approach both boiling and freezing points -- 212 degrees and 32 degrees -- respectively. But rest assured: In the aggregate, dating to 1901, the average is room temperature, a nice, pleasant 72 degrees.