Last year, one team crawled into the postseason, amid a stern social media mocking for failing to win enough in the last week of the regular season to avoid a first-round series. Because of these late-year struggles, this team faced an impossible gauntlet of road games.
And the Texas Rangers won them all, every single one, and this became the story of their 2023 championship, carved into the championship rings they'd win.
This week, another team's story will begin on a field, somewhere. Maybe it'll be in Cleveland or Los Angeles or in the Bronx or Philadelphia, where somebody figured out the confounding question of how to best deal with days off in a sport mostly played daily. Or maybe it will be in Baltimore or Houston or Milwaukee, where the road team won Game 1 in each of those wild-card matchups. With four teams on the brink of elimination and four vying to move on, there's plenty to watch in Game 2s on Wednesday.
With that in mind, here are the best matchups of the first round:
The Milwaukee Brewers' disorienting running game vs. the New York Mets
Only the Washington Nationals, with 223 stolen bases, were more active on the bases than the Brewers, who swiped 217, maintaining pressure on opposing pitchers and catchers all season with their aggressiveness. Brice Turang swiped 50, Jackson Chourio had 22, Willy Adames 21, and so on. This is a part of their identity, something they've done all season, like a college basketball team that presses or runs a Princeton offense.
In the Mets' games in Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday, the Brewers went 9-for-9 in stolen-base attempts. And though Tuesday starter Luis Severino gave up 15 steals in 20 attempts during the regular season, the Brewers didn't attempt a steal at all in Game 1. They'll need to find their run game again starting Wednesday as they try to avoid another wild-card round exit. Another prime opportunity awaits, as Mets Game 2 starter Sean Manaea allowed 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts this season. Will the Brewers capitalize on a chance to impact the game on the basepaths?
Adley Rutschman vs. his second-half slump
Given the credo of catchers, we probably won't know until after the season whether Rutschman has been dealing with some nagging ailments -- hand and wrist dents are part of the catcher experience -- but the 2019 No. 1 pick and widely regarded player has not been the same hitter over the past three months. Since July 7, Rutschman is batting .197, with a .274 on-base percentage and a .282 slugging percentage, with only three homers. James McCann, theoretically the Baltimore Orioles' backup catcher, had more homers in September (four) than Rutschman in the second half.
But October is a new season, a new opportunity, and at a time when the Orioles figure to be heavily reliant on their offense to overcome some of their pitching shortages, they need Rutschman to get back to being the kind of threat he usually has been in the big leagues. He -- and the rest of the O's lineup -- didn't fare well in Game 1: The team had only five hits in a 1-0 loss to the Kansas City Royals and Rutschman went 0-for-4.
Fatigue vs. the Mets and Braves relievers
There was some talk that the start of the National League Wild Card Series could be bumped to Wednesday to ease the burden following the Mets-Atlanta Braves doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday. But that would not have been fair to the Brewers nor the San Diego Padres, teams that wrapped up their respective playoff bids well in advance of the season's last day. San Diego and Milwaukee had a chance to rest their bullpens down the stretch and hone the work of the relievers to set them up for the start of the postseason.
There was no such opportunity for the relievers of the Mets and Braves. The bullpens had to cover some of the innings needed Monday just to get into the playoffs, including 1⅔ innings from Edwin Diaz, the Mets' closer. Relievers are stressed more than ever in October -- the old saying goes that you can't win in the postseason without bullpen and bench -- and the setup for the Braves' and Mets' bullpens is less than ideal.
Severino went six innings Tuesday, a boon for the Mets especially after a shaky start. New York used only two relievers and has a series lead, but the Braves had to go for more of a bullpen game and now sit one more loss away from elimination.
Yordan Alvarez vs. his sprained knee
At his best, Alvarez might be the best pure hitter in the majors, with his simple swing, and for all of Jose Altuve's postseason heroics and Alex Bregman's knack for late-inning success, Alvarez is the Houston Astros hitter whom opposing managers and pitchers fear the most. But he's not at his best now -- in fact, Game 1 was his first in the Astros' lineup since suffering a sprained knee Sept. 22. Alvarez went 2-for-4 -- including a double in the ninth inning that seemed poised to start an Astros rally -- but had to be pushed to DH, which has a domino effect for the other choices of Astros manager Joe Espada.
The Padres' contact vs. opposing defenses
With strikeout numbers at record levels, the distinguishing characteristic of the Padres' offense is how often the hitters put the ball in play. Their strikeout rate is easily the best in the majors, at 17.6%; the Astros are second, at 19.3%, with the Royals third (19.4%). For the Padres' opponents, more balls put in play naturally means more chances for defensive mistakes, fumbled grounders, errant throws or misplayed line drives in the gap.
In Game 1, it was the long ball that powered San Diego to a win -- now it will be telling to see if the Padres can follow that by putting even more pressure on Atlanta's defenders with a chance to move on.
A.J. Hinch vs. the Astros
Hinch will not take a swing in this series and he won't throw a pitch, but his presence will loom over the matchup because of his history with the Astros. He has shared champagne celebrations with Altuve and Bregman and others in the Houston organization, including owner Jim Crane, who made the decision to fire him after the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Hinch will be trying to beat old friends in a frenzied atmosphere he helped to create. The Tigers' players have talked about how Hinch has a sense of the moment, of what to say and what to do when the clubhouse needs something from him, and he will be better versed than just about anyone on how to handle this situation.
And it doesn't hurt that he got to write in the name of a player (Skubal) who might be the best pitcher in baseball in a win in Game 1. Game 2 opener Tyler Holton, Reese Olson and the rest of Detroit's bullpen will assume the responsibility from here.
Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez vs. their late slumps
If not for the standard-setting performances of Shohei Ohtani (54 homers and 59 steals, in a one-off season of merely DHing) and Aaron Judge (a final adjusted OPS+ of 223, better than any single season for Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle or Joe DiMaggio), we'd be talking more about BWJ's season: an MLB-best .332 average, 211 hits, 125 runs, 88 extra-base hits and 31 steals. And at age 34, Perez hit 27 homers and drove in 104 runs.
But down the stretch, Witt went from extraordinary to something less, hitting .275 with two homers and a .425 slugging percentage in his last 21 games, and Perez hit .223 with 10 RBIs over his last 29 games. The Royals' offense is heavily reliant on these two players, and as Kansas City goes head-to-head against elite offenses, a rebound for BWJ and Perez will be vital.
Hits were at a premium in Tuesday's opener in Baltimore, but Witt came through when the Royals needed him most -- driving in the only run of their Game 1 win. Kansas City will need timely hitting like that from its best players to continue to surprise in October.
Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill's confidence vs. the Braves
Throughout Machado's career, teammates have marveled at his range of skills, viewing him as one of the most talented players of his generation -- and in big-stage moments, when his competitive arrogance seems apparent, greatness has seemed more accessible to him than just about anyone. Merrill, a rookie, has a similar quality; he seems to have always had it.
The first time Padres general manager A.J. Preller saw Merrill play in person -- when Merrill's Maryland high school team played a road game and Preller was trying to remain undercover -- Preller recalls seeing Merrill's competitiveness like a beacon shining from the middle of the diamond. Merrill, Preller remembers, loved playing with his high school buddies -- and loved winning with them more. That part of the center fielder has carried over to the big leagues, where he has seemed mostly at ease under pressure. This year, Merrill has hit .303 against relievers, with a .504 slugging percentage.
The pair was quiet in San Diego's Game 1 win, going a combined 1-for-6 with Merrill's first-inning single accounting for their only hit.
Francisco Lindor vs. his back trouble
When Lindor returned to the lineup over the last weekend of the regular season, he looked awful; anyone who has dealt with a back issue could relate to his seeming inability to bend. On Sunday, however, he looked much more comfortable serving as a DH -- he twisted into a home run, stole a base, ran well. On Monday, he returned to shortstop, going 2-for-5 with that home run in the ninth inning.
Lindor hasn't really revealed details about the source of his discomfort -- there's no point, really. His ethic will always be to try to play, to the best that his body will allow, and he's probably not going to be fully healthy again until he has a chance to rest this winter. While his teammates certainly picked up the offensive slack in Game 1, Lindor went 0-for-4 with a walk at the leadoff spot.
Vinnie Pasquantino vs. the rust
As the Royals' first baseman worked to make his way back from a broken thumb suffered while playing first base Aug. 29, he was taking batting practice against live pitching, taking the sort of aggressive swings that have fed hope. Hitters will tell you that wrist and hand injuries can linger, affecting their ability to swing, and as Pasquantino returns to the lineup -- he started at DH and batted third against the Orioles -- it might be that pitchers will try to pound him inside with fastballs, challenging him, testing the functionality of his hand. With pitchers at full speed, it'll be up to the slugger to get up to speed, again.