The San Francisco Giants have been stuck in a rut of mediocrity the past two seasons and are on their way to another .500-ish finish, but Matt Chapman has been one of the bright spots, and the two sides agreed to a six-year extension, ripping up the final two years of a three-year, $54 million contract he had signed last offseason as a free agent and replacing it with a $151 million deal that will run through the 2030 season.
Chapman had an opt-out clause that he was likely to exercise given his productive 2024: He's hitting .247/.333/.445 with 22 home runs, 33 doubles and 90 runs and ranks third in the National League in bWAR behind only Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor.
But what are the Giants getting from Chapman through the length of this contract for the nine-figure price tag?
Chapman does two things exceptionally well. He plays a very strong third base defensively and should earn his fifth Gold Glove this season. He also hits the ball hard, ranking in the 93rd percentile in the majors in hard-hit rate. Given that he's 31 and this contract runs through his age-37 season, the Giants are betting on both of those things to continue.
Chapman's defense has given him a high floor of value in recent seasons, even as he has failed to match his offensive production of his 2018-19 peak, when he finished in the top 10 of American League MVP voting while with the Oakland Athletics. His high strikeout rate holds down his batting average -- his .247 average this season is his highest since 2019 -- but he draws enough walks to post above-average on-base rates. He has a broad base of skills that the Giants clearly believe will allow him to age well, even if his 2024 numbers aren't quite sustainable (although his .298 BABIP is right in line with his career mark of .295; he has actually cut down on his strikeout rate, which is now closer to his 2018-19 rates, to help boost his average a bit).
Since a large chunk of Chapman's value is tied to his defense, let's look at how some of the best defensive third basemen have aged:
Brooks Robinson: Averaged 4.3 WAR per season from ages 32 to 37 on the strength of his great D and good-enough offense.
Adrian Beltre: Averaged 6.0 WAR per season from 32 to 37. The metrics suggest he had lost a step on defense from his prime, but he remained outstanding. He was a much better hitter than Chapman, of course, thanks to superb contact skills.
Scott Rolen: Averaged 2.8 WAR per season as he battled injuries. His defense remained a plus, however, if not quite at the level he had in his 20s.
Robin Ventura: Averaged 2.0 WAR per season, retired at 36, and had his last great defensive season at age 31, moving to first base at 35.
Evan Longoria: Averaged 1.2 WAR per season from 32 to 37, which coincides with his trade from the Rays to the Giants. A better hitter at his peak than Chapman, there were some injuries and his defense remained OK until the end.
Matt Williams: Maybe the most similar player to Chapman here as a plus defender who hit the ball hard and had a 119 OPS+ through age 31 (Chapman is at 118). Averaged just 1.4 WAR per season from 32 to 37 and started battling injuries at 34. Chapman does draw more walks than Williams did, perhaps a sign he can sustain his offense longer into his career.
Nolan Arenado: Now 33, Arenado has seen his offensive production slide the past two seasons, although his defensive metrics have improved in 2024 after some regression last season. Arenado had a career OPS+ of 123 through age 31, and his best seasons were better than Chapman's best seasons. Chapman does hit the ball much harder than Arenado, with Arenado the much better contact hitter.
The biggest takeaway here is that we can expect Chapman to maintain his defensive value -- and, yes, I put Chapman in this general class as a defender. Of this group, only Ventura slipped badly enough to move off third base. Another positive is Chapman has been durable throughout most of his career, suffering one significant injury, when he had labrum surgery on his hip in 202. He's also a good athlete, ranking in the 86th percentile in top sprint speed. I think those indicators should allow him to age well and justify this contract.
Even if his level of play settles in at the 3.8 WAR that Chapman averaged from 2021 to 2023 rather than the six-win player he rates at this season, that's a valuable player. The potential downfalls are injuries and the strikeout rate increasing and crushing his production, but this feels like a solid deal for the Giants. I can't quite go to an A, if only because it's always risky to go in on a nine-figure deal for a player already in his 30s.