The 2024 MLB draft is a little more than a week away. This year's draft will take place July 14-16 in Fort Worth, Texas, as part of Major League Baseball's All-Star Game festivities hosted by the Texas Rangers.
As we approach the start of Round 1, here is one big question facing each of the 30 teams.
Teams are listed in draft order.
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Cleveland Guardians
Day 1 picks: No. 1, No. 36, No. 48
Bonus pool: $18,334,000
One big question: Will best value trump best player at No. 1?
The Guardians haven't picked this high since 2013, when they took Clint Frazier fifth overall, so we don't have a recent example of how they'll handle a high pick in the hard-capped draft era. They are perceived as possibly the most model-reliant, process-oriented team in terms of drafting, with clear preferences for medium stuff/strong control college pitchers in later rounds, but at higher picks leaning toward more stuff-oriented pitchers and up-the-middle types with a strong hit tool. The top 10 picks and the whole Guardians draft will hinge on whether they take one of the consensus talents -- Georgia's Charlie Condon or Oregon State's Travis Bazzana -- for what will likely be the highest bonus in the draft, or choose a route that spreads out their risk.
Cincinnati Reds
Day 1 picks: No. 2, No. 51, No. 71
Bonus pool: $15,842,100
One big question: Will the Reds hand out the biggest bonus in the 2024 draft?
Meanwhile, the Reds are seen to be a landing spot for Condon if he isn't the top pick, and they would be the odds-on favorite to hand out the highest bonus in the draft. That would still yield them savings for later picks, though. The biggest bonus under these draft rules was given to Paul Skenes last year: $9.2 million. Cincinnati's pick has a slot value of $9.785 million, so they could save half a million and still set a new record. They also have a 5% overage for their pool, if they choose to spend it, which is another nearly $800,000. Those two figures would give the Reds more than $3 million (a value between the 29th and 30th overall picks) to spend at their second pick, 51st overall, and still have slot amounts to spend at each later pick.
Colorado Rockies
Day 1 picks: No. 3, No. 38, No. 42
Bonus pool: $17,243,400
One big question: Do the Rockies continue to lean toward college starters in the first round?
The Rockies' plan in the first round, per sources familiar with their thinking, is to take a college starting pitcher, all things being equal, because top-tier starting pitcher free agents won't sign with them. Their first two 2023 draft picks (including Chase Dollander at ninth overall) and four of their first five are potential starting pitchers, along with their first pick in 2022 (Gabriel Hughes at 10th overall) and three of their top four picks in 2021. There's a small chance Chase Burns goes second overall, but it's likely the Rockies will have the option to take the first pitcher of the draft, with chatter that Burns is in their small group under consideration. It's good that Colorado made a philosophy shift in taking Dollander and Sean Sullivan with its first two picks last year, selecting pitchers who rely on four-seam fastballs for the first time in a while, as it used to exclusively pick sinkerballers. Burns was Dollander's teammate at Tennessee in 2023 and also works at the top of the zone with a four-seamer.
Oakland Athletics
Day 1 picks: No. 4, No. 40, No. 73
Bonus pool: $15,347,900
One big question: Can Oakland put together a haul like its 2021 draft crop to prop up a bottom-third farm system?
Oakland doesn't mind going counter to industry/media consensus in the draft, and in 2021, that worked out really well. Zack Gelof and Mason Miller have become parts of its big league core, while first-rounder Max Muncy is a 21-year-old shortstop hitting better than league average in Triple-A; those were Oakland's first three picks. Grant Holman and Denzel Clarke are in the upper minors showing some promise, while seventh-rounder Brett Harris has made the big leagues. Oakland also swerved from industry consensus last year, taking Jacob Wilson for well under slot at the sixth overall pick. That selection looks great so far, but the next five picks have had mixed starts in pro ball.
Chicago White Sox
Day 1 picks: No. 5, No. 43. No. 68
Bonus pool: $14,593,300
One big question: Will Chicago's putrid 2024 big league squad impact the prospect it picks in the draft?
The White Sox have a new GM who doesn't have a traditional scouting background and is tasked with continuing a rebuild. With Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. a part of trade rumors, it isn't clear who the potential core pieces of the next good White Sox team are, so those potential trades and this pick will be instrumental in the next step of the organization's evolution. Is this a hard multiyear reset, where trades will target upside in the low minors and high upside in the draft? Or is the club focused on being competitive next year, targeting upper-minors types in trades and college players in the draft for a 2025 to 2026 transitional period, leading to a 2027 contending team?
Kansas City Royals
Day 1 picks: No. 6, No. 39, No. 41
Bonus pool: $15,418,300
One big question: Will the Royals' surprise start impact which prospect they pick in the draft?
The Royals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild, currently holding the last wild-card spot in the American League. Their farm system is in the bottom third of the league with some depth of solid contributors but no projected standout types, while they sit here at No. 6 with the fourth-highest draft bonus pool and an opportunity to improve their position. Will K.C. take a quick-moving college player or shoot for upside with a real chance it gets to pick the first high school player in the draft?
St. Louis Cardinals
Day 1 pick: No. 7
Bonus pool: $10,213,000
One big question: Does a rare top-10 pick mean they can land the franchise starting pitcher they desperately need?
The knock on the Cardinals for some time has been that the organization has a hole when it comes to front-line starters, by not paying the price in free agency, stepping up to acquire a few years of control to one nearing free agency, or producing one internally. The lineup and position player prospects (along with depth starters and relievers) have been solid, but there's a real chance St. Louis will get a shot at a potential front-line starter in Chase Burns or Hagen Smith.
Los Angeles Angels
Day 1 picks: No. 8, No. 45, No. 74
Bonus pool: $12,990,400
One big question: Will the Angels focus on the quickest player to the majors ... again?
Rumors have the Halos circling local prep shortstop Bryce Rainer as the one reported target who doesn't fit their recent trend of taking the most polished college player and throwing him in the deep end of the big leagues ASAP. Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, Ben Joyce, Chase Silseth, Victor Mederos and Sam Bachman all fit that description from the past three drafts (all under this regime), with varying degrees of success. Their best current prospect from those three drafts is right-hander Caden Dana, one of the few prep picks from this span.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Day 1 picks: No. 9, No. 37, No. 47
Bonus pool: $14,000,500
One big question: Does the rousing success of Paul Skenes signal better draft outcomes for the Pirates?
The Pirates have had some success in recent drafts under this regime, with Skenes from the 2023 class and Jared Jones from their first draft in 2020. Nick Gonzales has rebounded to be a usable big leaguer after looking like a bust. On the current prospect side, Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington have gained value as key members of a draft class, but Henry Davis and Termarr Johnson have had some real problems in pro ball. The Pirates are now competitive and have a core, with a window that could be opening with a couple more savvy moves. Will this draft be a depth builder or push the big league team forward in short order?
Washington Nationals
Day 1 picks: No. 10, No. 44
Bonus pool: $11,500,100
One big question: Will the new scouting department covet upside as much as the previous regime did?
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is a former scouting director, and he has a specific view on players, with influence over the draft process. This year, he has three new scouting executives in charge of the process, each coming from different teams, so rival clubs picking around here are wondering if the Nats' past upside-at-all-costs approach will hold up. If it does, the two top prep players, shortstop Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer, would fit. The Nats might perceive themselves to be turning a corner into being competitive in the National League and want to take college players at high picks, saving prep upside types for later in the draft.
Detroit Tigers
Day 1 picks: No. 11, No. 49, No. 72
Bonus pool: $11,921,800
One big question: Where will the board leave the team at No. 11 in a draft with a clear top 10?
Odds are, one of the teams picking in the top 10 will take a player outside of the top 10, either to save money or because they think one of the players in the next tier belongs at the top. Realistically, that applies to picks eight through 10, with leading candidates James Tibbs and Christian Moore. If it happens, and I'd say it is a little more than 50% likely, would the Tigers simply take whichever of those players gets to them? The leading candidates are Konnor Griffin (a prep position player with contact questions) and Nick Kurtz (a first baseman with multiple shoulder injuries in college). This regime's only draft had them taking savings with their top pick (Max Clark) and spending the savings mostly on more high school players. Maybe this whole question is irrelevant, because Detroit is tied to prep lefty Cam Caminiti, and he'll likely be available. Or maybe passing on Wyatt Langford last year will make them rethink that strategy?
Boston Red Sox
Day 1 picks: No. 12, No. 50
Bonus pool: $10,521,600
One big question: Will the new Red Sox front office focus on adding pitching prospects?
This is the first draft under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, but many of the same scouting execs remain from the Chaim Bloom regime. Roman Anthony has been a huge success (keep an eye on what 2023 fourth-rounder Kristian Campbell is doing, too, by the way), especially given that he went 79th overall, while a lot of other high picks in recent years are probably going to work out fine (i.e., a lot of probable big leaguers, with some solid contributors likely from the group), but the answer isn't clear yet. Quality prospect pitching depth has been an issue in the organization for years, and Breslow is seen as having a strong POV in that area. Will this draft be the beginning of Breslow declaring his pitcher-trait preferences from a wide-open market?
San Francisco Giants
Day 1 pick: No. 13
Bonus pool: $7,566,200
One big question: Can the Giants land one of the top 10 talents in the draft at pick 13?
The Giants are seen as the last realistic pick where one of the top-tier talents in the draft could fall. San Francisco has been open demographically, loading up on college pitching in 2021 and 2022 while it took two prep hitters with its top picks last year. Paradoxically, the Giants are tied to Cam Caminiti, the consensus top prep arm in the draft, along with basically whomever is considered the best player left on the board. Caminiti and Trey Yesavage are the only pitchers likely in contention here, while there's a number of position players that make sense.
Chicago Cubs
Day 1 picks: No. 14, No. 54
Bonus pool: $9,802,300
One big question: Do the Cubs keep drafting power arms at their high picks, or will they mix in a few position players?
Cade Horton, Jaxon Wiggins, Jackson Ferris and Nazier Mule have received four of the top five bonuses in the past two Cubs draft classes. The organization's starting pitching depth has been largely solved in the past two years (pending health), but you can never have too many power arms, and the bullpen hasn't been very good this year. Like I mentioned in the Giants section above, there's only a couple pitchers who make sense at this pick, so most in the industry think a position player will be the pick here.
Seattle Mariners
Day 1 picks: No. 15, No. 58
Bonus pool: $9,543,300
One big question: Do the Mariners have more early round prep-hitter magic in them?
There's been a lot of buzz that the Mariners are looking at bucking their recent trend of prep position players to take a long look at the prep pitching market (Cam Caminiti and Kash Mayfield, specifically), while also being the floor for East Carolina righty Trey Yesavage. It's a little early for the third prep position player, Theo Gillen, but he's in play here and appears to be Seattle's type. I'd call it likely Seattle picks one of those four players, but I'd be willing to bet the Mariners will take another prep bat with one of the next few picks, even if they take Gillen here.
Miami Marlins
Day 1 picks: No. 16, No. 56, No. 70
Bonus pool: $10,438,500
One big question: How will new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his brain trust approach their first draft?
Bendix comes from the Rays, where they'll take just about any kind of player and tend to be ahead of trends rather than followers. In a full rebuild for the Marlins, what will he and a new group of executives see as the best way forward for an organization that could use everything? The top tier of 10 shouldn't get here, and the consensus next-best players have a real shot of all being gone by No. 16, so the options, while not as attractive as the picks leading up to this one, really open up. There's a shot that if someone on their wish list doesn't make it to the 16th pick that this could be a hard undercut, with one of the rumored prep position players (Carter Johnson, Tyson Lewis or P.J. Morlando) who might not be on the board at their next pick.
Milwaukee Brewers
Day 1 picks: No. 17, No. 34, No. 57, No. 67
Bonus pool: $12,984,400
One big question: Will the Brewers continue to find new angles to attack in the draft?
The Brewers have some clear preferences: hit-first, up-the-middle types (Sal Frelick, Tyler Black, Eric Brown, Mike Boeve), pitchers with big stuff (Jacob Misiorowski, Josh Knoth) and projectable high schoolers who are undervalued (Cooper Pratt, Luke Adams). The Brewers aren't dogmatic -- last year's top pick, Brock Wilken, doesn't fit into any of those buckets -- but there's a number of players who fit the mold likely to be on the board. Jurrangelo Cijntje, Brody Brecht and most of the prep pitchers fit, as do Seaver King, Carson Benge and a few more college position players. This is the area where you might see some names ranked in the 30s get picked, because there isn't much separation between the players.
Tampa Bay Rays
Day 1 picks: No. 18, No. 58, No. 66
Bonus pool: $10,093,100
One big question: Can the Rays strike gold with another position player in the first round?
The past three top picks for the Rays have been shortstop Brayden Taylor (solid early returns) and two of the better prospects in baseball in first baseman Xavier Isaac and shortstop Carson Williams, all at No. 19 or later. Like I mentioned above, this juncture of the draft is wide open, with all of the four demographics in play, so it's hard to predict the Rays' decision, but history would suggest a position player.
New York Mets
Day 1 picks: No. 19, No. 46
Bonus pool: $9,572,200
One big question: What does a David Stearns-led Mets draft look like?
Stearns has also hired a new VP of amateur scouting in Kris Gross, who came over from Houston after a solid run of drafts. Their histories intersect in prioritizing physical ability and stuff on the mound, which describes Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht to a T, explaining why he has been tied here for awhile. This is also a spot where Vance Honeycutt and Dakota Jordan make sense, the two tooled-up collegiate outfielders with hit-tool questions; Gross had success with a version of that profile for Houston in 2022 with Jacob Melton, now a top-100 prospect.
Toronto Blue Jays
Day 1 picks: No. 20, No. 59
Bonus pool: $8,987,000
One big question: Will the Jays' disappointing 2024 season affect their draft approach?
I have no idea what the long-term plan is in Toronto. One minute the Blue Jays are flying high as a playoff team with an intriguing young core and chasing free agent Shohei Ohtani. Now, their farm system is in the bottom third of the league and the big league team is in last place in the American League East. They've leaned into risky prep upside with their first pick the past two years in Arjun Nimmala and Brandon Barriera, with mixed results thus far. I don't know the answer to this organizational conundrum, and I don't know if the results in 2024 will shift their strategy in the draft, but something has to change.
Minnesota Twins
Day 1 picks: No. 21, No. 33, No. 60, No. 69
Bonus pool: $12,209,600
One big question: Given their wide-open approach to draft demographics, which direction will the Twins go in the first round?
I see Minnesota as having the league's fourth-best farm system as things stand now, with a great mix of top-end talent, depth, position players and pitching. As you'd guess from the question, the Twins have been tied to players from all those demographics at this pick, but there are more viable college options available than high school. The Twins don't have a catcher in their top 20 prospects, and this is in the thick of a stretch in which three college catchers should all be picked.
Baltimore Orioles
Day 1 picks: No. 22, No. 32, No. 61
Bonus pool: $10,920,900
One big question: Who is the most "Orioles" prospect in this draft?
The Orioles have a clear type at early picks under GM Mike Elias: position players with some measure of physical ability/defensive value but real raw power. Bat-to-ball skill isn't as important, and pitch selection will often improve in their system. There are some good examples of these kinds of players who should go in this range. Vance Honeycutt is plus at everything except hitting for contact, Dakota Jordan might have 80 power and 80 speed, but the rest is a work in progress, and Carson Benge is an easy plus runner who can play center field and is above average at almost everything in the batter's box. Those guys fit the best, but I thought Baltimore would stick to its type last year and it took an 80 runner with well-below-average power in Enrique Bradfield Jr., so there are always exceptions.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Day 1 pick: No. 23
Bonus pool: $6,114,700
One big question: What will their scouting and development machine churn out this time?
The Dodgers are good at finding value in the draft, despite picking near the end of each round every year. They don't have a specific type, so they're hard to pin down well ahead of time, but they have been tied to two pitchers, among the only ones in play around their pick: Jurrangelo Cijntje and Kash Mayfield. They're pretty different in style, but both come with starter traits and above-average stuff with some unique elements (Cijntje's switch-pitching, Mayfield's lack of summer appearances and wrist wrap in his delivery) that might scare off other clubs but give the Dodgers' strong player development something to work on.
Atlanta Braves
Day 1 picks: No. 24, No. 62
Bonus pool: $7,765,000
One big question: Is there a local product Atlanta could mine early in this draft?
The Braves have looked to hit-first position players with some positional value and pitchers with unrealized upside at early picks. That fits the players sources have tied them to this year: prep RHP Braylon Doughty, Iowa RHP Brody Brecht, Jurrangelo Cijntje and prep shortstops Wyatt Sanford and Carter Johnson. Like Milwaukee, Atlanta usually has a new spin on the draft each year (saving early to spread bonuses past the 10th round, going heavy on prep righties, taking pitchers currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), trying to stay ahead of trends.
San Diego Padres
Day 1 picks: No. 25, No. 52
Bonus pool: $9,360,500
One big question: How much upside can A.J. Preller find in this draft?
Death, taxes and A.J. Preller drafting for upside. The Padres' first three picks in the 2021 draft (Jackson Merrill, James Wood and Robert Gasser -- at picks 27, 62 and 71, respectively) is one of the best runs in recent draft history. Preller has never had trouble restocking a farm system, so I've come to expect high school players at the high picks and players with unusual backgrounds in the middle rounds -- the Padres are one of few clubs that lean more on scouts than data. San Diego is picking in the clear third tier of talent at the 25th pick, with the top 10 long gone and basically all of the consensus second tier gone. Accordingly, the Padres have been tied to upside preps: shortstop Kellon Lindsey and lefties David Shields and Boston Bateman.
New York Yankees
Day 1 picks: No. 26, No. 53
Bonus pool: $8,134,500
One big question: Do the Yankees strike gold (Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge), stockpile more prospects for trades or both?
The Yankees also pick perennially in the back half of the first round, finding star players every now and then, but always finding roughly a half-dozen prospects per draft whom GM Brian Cashman can trade for big league upgrades. New York excels in the similar pool where Cleveland also finds success: somewhat generic college pitchers in the middle rounds. Those are hard to predict, but the Bombers seem to want to take a position player with upside to play in New York with their first pick each year, if available, before moving into pitching. Vance Honeycutt, Carson Benge, Cam Smith and all three first-round college catchers (Caleb Lomavita, Walker Janek, Malcolm Moore) fit that bill for some evaluators.
Philadelphia Phillies
Day 1 picks: No. 27, No. 63
Bonus pool: $7,381,800
One big question: Do they shoot for prep upside or college vibes?
The Phillies have found success dipping into the riskiest demographic in the draft with high school righties Mick Abel and Andrew Painter. They might have struck gold in last year's draft, taking a prep infielder in Aidan Miller, already a top-50 prospect in baseball, and they've found some success with prep center fielder Justin Crawford. It's reasonable to expect they continue the trend with another high school player (Kellon Lindsey?), but the board is giving them plenty of upside with flawed college players, if the Phillies have a strong perspective on how they can improve. Dakota Jordan, Vance Honeycutt, Billy Amick and Tommy White all come with some questions -- some combination of hit and/or approach for all four -- but have the upside you traditionally find with prep players at this juncture of the draft. White really fits the clubhouse vibes of the big league team, while the other three have electric plus-plus tools (and plenty of on-field enthusiasm) that could impact a playoff game.
Houston Astros
Day 1 pick: No. 28
Bonus pool: $5,914,700
One big question: Which back-end starters and athletes will Houston pick this year?
Under GM Dana Brown, the Astros have focused on potential bulk inning starters, who aren't usually ace types given where Houston picks, and up-the-middle position players with some explosive qualities. Dakota Jordan and Vance Honeycutt presumably would stop here, as they fit the Houston type perfectly. If they're gone, Tyson Lewis and Kellon Lindsey fit this type from the prep ranks, while Kyle DeBarge and Griff O'Ferrall are rising names from the college ranks who also fit the type and might go in this range. Like the Yankees, I expect Houston to take a position player here and then turn to pitching later in the draft.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Day 1 picks: No. 29, No. 31, No. 35, No. 64
Bonus pool: $12,662,000
One big question: How will the D-backs use their run of picks?
It has become a joke on my calls with agents that they will say at least one of their players are a target of the Diamondbacks. Given that the D-backs will likely mix college/prep, hitter/pitcher and over/under slot, on top of having three picks bunched together, basically any player could be a target and probably has been considered. I won't spell out the list, but just know it's basically everyone ranked 10 spots ahead or behind these picks. For reference, while these late first-round picks might not seem consequential to fans, the Yankees had picks 26, 32 and 33 in the 2013 draft and took two perceived safe players (both ended up as busts) and one risky player, only because they had the three picks to spread the risk around. The risky player? Aaron Judge.
Texas Rangers
Day 1 picks: No. 30, No. 65
Bonus pool: $6,997,900
One big question: After two years with no second- or third-round picks, what will Texas do with a full complement of picks?
Texas has the last pick of the first round, which also means the last pick before teams that might have saved money on their first pick get a chance to take the player they were saving that money for. That means Texas has a unique option to take a player who might be better than this pick on talent, but it also means the Rangers won't have the kind of pool money left to offer what the teams just behind them are offering. Getting a college player on a deal, because over-slot prep players should go in the next span of picks, makes some sense, so any college position player who is seen as a first-round talent and makes it to this pick due to losing a few coin flips in a row could be a solid pick to set up later moves. This is rumored to be the floor for Malcolm Moore and is a strong landing spot for Carter Johnson and Texas outfielder Jared Thomas.