Julio Rodriguez has been one of the game's brightest stars his first two seasons in the majors. As a 21-year-old rookie in 2022, he hit .284 with 28 home runs and finished seventh in the American League MVP voting. Last season, he hit .275 with 32 home runs and 37 stolen bases and finished fourth in the MVP voting. Now 23, with two years of experience, there was hope for even bigger and better things; after all, a former Seattle Mariners center fielder named Ken Griffey Jr. was 23 years old when his power spiked, going from 27 to 45 home runs.
Instead, Rodriguez got off to a slow start to 2024, hitting .256 in April with just one home run and 40 strikeouts in 30 games. He hit .273 in May, but again, the power was lacking, with just three home runs. He's been a little better in June, but he's still showing a glaring lack of extra-base power with just seven home runs and six doubles. He's on pace for just 28 extra-base hits compared to 56 as a rookie (in just 132 games) and 71 last season.
J-Rod isn't the only big name putting up some surprisingly disappointing numbers, though. While one of the themes of the 2024 season was the early catalog of pitching injuries, that hasn't stopped pitchers from dominating. The league-wide batting average of .241 is seven points lower than 2023 and would be the lowest since 1968. The ball hasn't been quite as lively this season and home runs are at 1.05 per team per game, a notable dip from 1.21 in 2023 and the lowest since 1.01 in 2015.
Still, while offense might be down so far this season, there could still be cause for concern for certain players' performances -- from young players who haven't taken the next step to aging veteran stars. Let's dig into some of these slow starts, starting with Rodriguez, to see whether they are first-half flukes or legitimate struggles.
Young stars not taking the next step
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
2024 stats: .264/.314/.353, 7 HR, 29 RBI
Key metric: 90th percentile hard-hit rate
There's a lot to unpack here with Rodriguez to figure out what's going on. Part of the problem is Seattle in April and May is where fly balls go to die. In 2022, J-Rod slugged 1.398 when hitting a fly ball; in 2023, he slugged 1.069; in 2024, he's slugging just .717. In general, he has a relatively low average launch angle so he's not hitting enough fly balls to maximize his raw power, but his fly ball rate is the same as previous seasons: 24.0% in 2022, 24.5% in 2023, 24.8% in 2024. Maybe the warmer weather will help.
Aside from that, Rodriguez just hasn't matured in his approach. His chase rate is worse than it was as a rookie -- from the 19th percentile among all hitters to the 10th -- and that leads to strikeouts (he's tied for the AL lead). Rodriguez has two things working against him. Because he has a long swing, pitchers will pound him inside to keep him from extending his arms; he ranks seventh among qualified batters on the percentage of pitches seen on the inner half of the plate. And then because he'll chase out of the zone, he'll see those two-strike breaking balls low and away. It's the classic way to pitch to big, powerful right-handed batters. Unless he learns to lay off those pitches out of the zone, there will be a ceiling on his offensive upside.
In the meantime, Rodriguez is still hitting the ball hard -- it's just that a lot of his hits have been ground ball singles to right field rather than doubles in the gap or home runs. And not all of this is a T-Mobile Park effect: He has one double and four home runs in 38 road games. As they say, baseball is a game of adjustments; J-Rod needs to start making some.
Verdict: Not Real. J-Rod hits the ball too hard to have so few extra-base hits. That will change over the final three-plus months, although he's unlikely to reach the 37 doubles and 32 home runs he had last season.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 stats: .217/.308/.322, 2 HR, 23 RBI
Key metric: 87.3 mph average exit velocity
As a rookie last season, Carroll was one of the most dynamic players in the game, hitting .285 with 25 home runs, 65 extra-base hits and 54 stolen bases (in 59 attempts). He finished a deserving fifth in the MVP balloting and was viewed as a potential MVP candidate entering the season. That isn't going to happen with this slow start. Unlike with Rodriguez, it has nothing to do with plate discipline or controlling the strike zone; Carroll is basically the same in those areas, actually walking a bit more and making more contact within the zone. His struggles have been all about his inability to mark hard contact: His average exit velocity as a rookie was 90.0 mph, so he's dropped from above average in that category (63rd percentile) to well below average (23rd percentile).
A few weeks ago, Carroll explained his struggles to reporters: "I made my swing too flat, and so it's been a lot of work to try and create better attack angles and a better vertical bat angle."
Indeed, his flyball rate is down nearly eight percentage points from last season. As a rookie, he had no problem catching up to four-seam fastballs, hitting .307 and slugging .580 against them; this year, he's at .180 with a .260 slugging percentage (even though his whiff rate is less than one percentage point higher). Again, he's just not making hard contact.
Pitchers are also busting Carroll inside: He leads qualified hitters on the percentage of pitches on the inner half, but they did also pitch that way to him last season as well. It's also worth noting that his production slid in the second half last season after he injured his shoulder in June and missed a couple games (and don't forget he missed nearly an entire minor league season after shoulder surgery in 2021). Nobody is suggesting there's an injury this season -- in fact, both Carroll and manager Torey Lovullo have told reporters that in trying to improve his bat speed and improve in other areas, Carroll lost some of his other mechanics. He's been a little better in June and is known as a hard worker, so he seems like a good bet to break out of this soon.
Verdict: Not Real. Carroll's situation is complicated by the side injury he suffered making a throw on Sunday, although he didn't miss any games and went 3-for-7 in the first two games after the injury. Aside from that, the big drop in exit velocity is concerning, although that is starting to slowly climb as he makes some mechanical adjustments. He's not this bad and I would expect something close to the .868 OPS he had last year the rest of he way.
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
2024 stats: .250/.295/.358, 5 HR, 20 RBI
Key metric: Third percentile in chase rate
Harris landed on the IL last week with a hamstring injury, so his numbers won't be changing for a bit. As a sophomore last season, he started off slow, landed on the IL and was hitting .163 by early June -- but from June 6 to the end of the season, he hit .332/.356/.547 with 16 home runs. He looked like a potential All-Star heading into 2024.
That hasn't happened and it's pretty easy to figure out why: Harris likes to swing. Like, too much. He overcame that his first two seasons, in part because of an ability to make contact on pitches out of the zone. He's been even more aggressive this season, swinging at the first pitch 42% of the time compared to 29.7% last season. His chase rate, already near the bottom, is a few percentage points worse than it was in 2023. On pitches out of the zone, he still managed to hit .184 in 2022 and .199 in 2023, but he's hitting .111 in 2024.
When he returns from the IL, it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes. With a long swing (even longer than Rodriguez) and a high chase rate, there is some Javier Baez downside here (although Harris makes much more contact than Baez, so I don't think he'll ever fall to those depths).
Verdict: Not Real. We might have a long wait for him to get back on the field, but I feel like this entire Atlanta offense is ready to break out in a big way over the summer. For Harris, it's just a matter of when he can back in the lineup.
Others to watch
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates: He hits the ball as hard as anybody not named Aaron Judge (only Judge has a higher average exit velocity) but needs to make more contact.
Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics: He slugged .504 in 300 plate appearances as a rookie but is hitting just .202 and slugging .365. He was probably a little over his head anyway in 2023, but he's hitting .230 against fastballs compared to .324 in 2023.
Eduoard Julien, Minnesota Twins: A Three True Outcomes hitter, Julien's OPS has dropped from .839 to .676 and the Twins sent him back to the minors in early June. He was useless against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, going 6-for-72.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies: He was fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting with a .931 OPS in 2023 but is at .589 this season (although in just 32 games due to back stiffness and knee soreness that held him out earlier). The Guardians gave up on him due to too many strikeouts in the minors, and he managed nice numbers last season despite a 30% strikeout rate -- thanks to an unsustainable .401 BABIP. The K rate is a little higher so far in 2024 and the BABIP is down below .300.
Aging veterans
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
2024 stats: .260/.315/.375, 6 HR, 32 RBI
Key metric: 23rd percentile in bat speed
Once you adjust for the overall downturn in offense, Arenado hasn't been that much worse than last season -- a 97 OPS+ versus 108. The new bat tracking metrics show him with well below average bat speed, certainly a concern when you're 33 years old. He has always been a bit of an oxymoron, however, as he's hit for power throughout his career, even though his hard-hit rates have been below average since 2019. But that figure is lower than ever in 2024. Arenado still hits balls at an optimal launch angle that will lead to some home runs, but the declining bat speed may mean his days as even a 25-homer guy are in the past.
Verdict: Real. The trend line here is pretty clear, even though Arenado is still an above-average contact hitter. I didn't even mention his defense, which rates surprisingly poorly in both DRS (minus-5 runs) and OAA (34th percentile). Though he's never been fast, Arenado's top sprint speed is in the 10th percentile. He looks like a player who is losing his athleticism.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
2024 stats: .231/.302/.357, 9 HR, 29 RBI
Key metric: 29% strikeout rate
Like his teammate, Goldschmidt showed signs of decline in 2023 and things have gotten worse this season. His strikeout rate, between 18.6% and 23.4% from 2020 to 2023, has climbed in 2024. He's walking less and hitting fewer fly balls. He's chasing more often. His slugging percentage against fastballs has declined from .573 in his 2022 MVP season to .443 last year to .433 this season. His bat speed remains OK -- slightly above the MLB average -- and his hard-hit rate also remains above average, so, in a sense, there are better raw tools still here than with Arenado. I wouldn't write him off just yet, although don't expect a return to his 2022 form either.
Verdict: Not Real. There are enough potential positives here that Goldschmidt should hit better the rest of the way.
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
2024 stats: .219/.265/.316, 4 HR, 14 RBI
Key metric: 13th percentile in hard-hit rate
Bogaerts is just 31 years old, so you wouldn't be expecting a career crisis, but that's the case. He's currently sidelined after injuring his shoulder diving for a ball on May 20 and may not return until after the All-Star break, but these were the numbers he posted before the injury. As with Carroll, Bogaerts was struggling to make hard contact. His exit velo metrics peaked in 2018-19, his two best offensive seasons when he averaged .300 with 28 home runs and 48 doubles. Those numbers have been in slow decline since then, however: 81th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2019, 65th in 2021, 47th in 2022,18th last season and now 13th. This is the second year of an 11-year contract. As Scooby-Doo would say, "Ruh-roh."
Verdict: Real. The shoulder injury makes any future evaluation difficult and this might end up being a lost season. As with Arenado, however, it just appears he's lost a step at the plate and in the field.
Others to watch
Justin Turner, Toronto Blue Jays: The strikeout-to-walk rate is still fine, but his hard-hit rate is in decline for the fourth straight season -- only Nicky Lopez and Luis Arraez have a slower bat speed among rated hitters.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays: Yeah, no wonder the Jays are struggling to score runs. Springer is 34 years old now and his isolated power has dipped for the third straight season (.291 in 2021 to .205 to .147 to .094).
Jorge Soler, San Francisco Giants: An All-Star last season with 36 home runs, Soler still has elite bat speed (95th percentile), so while he's 32 years old, this is more so related to his usual year-to-year inconsistency.
2023 All-Stars who are struggling
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 stats: .237/.286/.342, 4 HR, 28 RBI
Key metric: .275 expected batting average
Bichette, who was placed on the IL with a calf strain earlier this week, has been a remarkably consistent hitter throughout his career, hitting between .290 and .311 every season with 20 to 30 home runs and a bunch of doubles. He's a very aggressive hitter with that unusual setup with his front toe, but he's also striking out at a career low rate in 2024. His expected batting average via Statcast suggests he's been hitting into some bad luck, but he also hasn't been barreling up baseballs as frequently as in the past. He has just 10 "barrels" so far in 2024, a pace of 25 or so for the season, when he's been between 44 and 50 each of the past three seasons. (A barrel is a Statcast metric of a batted ball that produces a minimum .500 average and 1.500 slugging percentage.)
I thought it might be a simple explanation of facing the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, two teams pitching much better than last season, but that's not the case. The Blue Jays just played their first three games against Boston (and got swept) and he's hit .286 against the Yankees in six games. Bichette just needs one of his patented hot streaks to get back on track, like last season when he hit .350 in May, or in 2022 when he hit .406 in September.
Verdict: Not Real. Bichette will get it going. It's just a matter whether that will be with the Blue Jays or another team as his name has popped up in trade rumors.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
2024 stats: .186/.301/.348, 10 HR, 26 RBI
Key metric: Seventh percentile in swing-and-miss rate
Like Bichette, Arozarena has been a consistent performer, with an OPS+ between 120 and 129 in his three full seasons. That's sitting at 87 so far, however, as he's struggled to make good contact -- ranking at the bottom of the majors in a category called "launch angle sweet spot percentage." He's still managed to knock out 10 home runs, but he's not doing much of anything else. He's hitting .191 and slugging .382 against fastballs after hitting .283 and slugging .493 against them last year. Arozarena has dramatically changed his launch angle since 2022, creating more fly balls, but that's led to fewer line drives and more pop-ups this season, along with a drop in his whiff rate. Perhaps he's become too homer-happy.
Verdict: Not Real. He's not going to continue to hit this poorly and the power and walk rate numbers are fine. The average should climb once his BABIP normalizes (assuming it will).
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2024 stats: .251/.331/.453, 11 HR, 38 RBI
Key metric: 22 barrels
Like everybody else in the Atlanta lineup other than Marcell Ozuna, Olson has failed to repeat his 2023 heroics. He's been fine with a 120 OPS+, but that pales in comparison to the MVP-caliber numbers he put up last season when he belted 54 home runs.
Indeed, of all the players here, Olson's results are the least concerning. I checked some video of his at-bats back in April when he hit .202 with three home runs and there was a lot of bad luck: a screaming line drive hit right at somebody, several balls caught at the warning track, some good defensive plays. He's been better since then, although he remains well behind the 70 barrels he produced last season and his OPS is down 200 points.
Verdict: Not Real. The numbers are already starting to climb, as he's hitting .302 with a .902 OPS in June. He'll be fine.
Others to watch
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers: He's hitting home runs, but his OPS+ has dropped from 127 last season to 90 in 2024. He had improved his chase rate from 37% in 2022 to 29% last season, leading to his best season at the plate, but he's back up to 34%.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays: The AL batting champ with a .330 average in 2023, Diaz was a little BABIP lucky last season and is a little unfortunate this season. He's still hitting rockets so I would expect his average to go up.
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies: Castellanos hit .272 with 68 extra-base hits in 2023 despite a poor 185:36 strikeout-to-walk rate. His Statcast page for 2024 is all blue (meaning he ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories) even though he's improved that SO/BB ratio. The metrics suggest he should get better, but note that his 2022 season (with a less lively baseball, similar to this year) was nowhere near as good as his 2021 or 2023 seasons.