The Houston Astros had little choice in releasing first baseman Jose Abreu given his horrendous start this season, but it's still a decision teams are reluctant to make: Eating a big chunk of money, $30.8 million in this case. Signed as a free agent before the 2023 season, Abreu was hitting .124 in 35 games and the Astros had given the 37-year-old former MVP 120 plate appearances to see if he had anything left; he didn't. Given that they are six games under .500 and their offense ranks just seventh in the American League in runs, the Astros couldn't wait any longer.
It's an ignominious ending for Abreu, the 2020 American League MVP and a two-time RBI champ. It's not overstating things to suggest that Abreu, who was 27 when he signed with the Chicago White Sox in 2014 after defecting from Cuba, would be a potential Hall of Famer if he had gotten to the majors sooner. He joined the Cuban professional league when he was just 16, hit .337 at age 18 and was the best hitter in the league in his 20s.
In his first season with the White Sox, he hit .317 with 36 home runs, leading the AL in slugging percentage and adjusted OPS. He drove in 100 runs in five of his first seven seasons, missing only in 2018 (when he missed 34 games) and the shortened 2020 season (when he led the majors with 60 RBIs in 60 games).
We could attempt to backfill some of Abreu's missing major league seasons to create an estimated career WAR. In his first four seasons with the White Sox, he averaged 4.3 WAR, with a high of 5.8 in that first season. His first huge offensive season in Cuba came when he was 22, so that's five seasons we can assume he would have played at an elite level. Let's say he averaged 4.5 WAR over those five seasons and averaged 2.5 WAR from ages 19 to 21. That's an additional 30 WAR on top of the 30.3 during his MLB career, a total of 60.3 that compares favorably with some other Hall of Fame first baseman/slugger types such as Harmon Killebrew (60.3), Willie Stargell (57.3), David Ortiz (55.3), Tony Perez (53.9) and Fred McGriff (52.6).
He has 263 home runs and 960 RBIs in the majors. Give him a conservative estimate of 200 additional home runs and 700 RBIs and you're looking at impressive career totals of 463 home runs and 1660s RBIs. That's a potential Hall of Famer.
None of that covers up what a disastrous deal this has been for the Astros, however. At the time of the signing, I gave it a B+ grade, mostly because Abreu projected as a nice upgrade at first base over Yuli Gurriel, who had struggled in 2022 at minus-0.2 WAR. Abreu was coming off a .304 season with the White Sox, but with just 15 home runs -- perhaps the warning sign that his game was starting to slip. It's also a signing that former GMs Jeff Luhnow or James Click wouldn't have made. Luhnow preferred to make trades for marquee players -- see Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke -- rather than sign free agents, let alone 36-year-old free agents to three-year deals. Owner Jim Crane struck the deal in the interim between parting ways with Click after the 2022 World Series title and the hiring of Dana Brown.
Now the Astros are stuck paying out the rest of Abreu's contract. It's the kind of deal that explains why some teams can be reluctant -- as we saw this past offseason -- to dip into free agency, especially for players in their 30s. So many of them end up backfiring. Abreu's release got me thinking of five other bad deals from recent offseasons.
Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
The deal: 6 years, $140 million, 2022-27
Baez's production dropped quickly after he signed with Detroit as part of a free agent period loaded with shortstops. Basically: Baez's abhorrent plate discipline and long swing finally caught up to him. He hit .222 with a .267 OPS last season with just nine home runs. His defense helped him remain above replacement level, but just barely (0.6 WAR). His bat is even worse in 2024 and now his defense is slipping as well -- both Statcast and defensive runs saved rate his defense poorly. Maybe the downturn in the field is related to the back injury that landed Baez on the IL last week, when he received an injection for lumbar spine inflammation.
Detroit now must answer this question: Is it worth playing Baez when he does get healthy? The Tigers still owe him $73 million beyond this season and it's not like fill-ins Ryan Kreidler and Zach McKinstry project to be much better with the bat, so Baez will undoubtedly get another chance. But the Tigers will have to do some soul-searching this offseason about their shortstop position and whether they want to remain committed to Baez.
Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox
The deal: 5 years, $75 million, 2023-27
Benintendi signed with the White Sox coming off a .304 season in 2022, but he had also hit just five home runs. That batting average and his age (28) were pluses going into free agency, but even at the time it felt like a lot of money for a guy who had basically been a singles hitter. He posted an 88 OPS+ last season and has hit even worse in 2024, posting just a .204/.245/.296 line. His defensive runs saved metrics are also terrible at minus-9 DRS, leading to a major league-worst WAR of minus-2.0 (Abreu was at minus-1.6.)
If the White Sox continue playing Benintendi and he keeps playing like this, he has a chance to rack up the lowest WAR season ever for a position player. Since 1900, that "honor" belongs to Jerry Royster, who racked up minus-4.1 WAR for the Braves in 1977, when he posted a .566 OPS in a hitter's park while making 28 errors across three infield positions. The Astros had to let Abreu go because they're still hoping to compete for the playoffs. With three-plus years left on Benintendi's contract and the team long out of the postseason picture, the White Sox will attempt to let Benintendi play out of this -- but it's not looking good.
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
The deal: 7 years, $182 million, 2022-28
When a Mariners fan told me that he hoped Seattle would sign Bryant during his free agency offseason, I warned him that he didn't want Bryant. To quickly compare him to the next player on this list: While Xander Bogaerts has developed a bunch of red flags that make his future uncertain, Bryant already had them before the Rockies signed him. While Bryant had a solid 2021 (124 OPS+) with the Cubs and Giants and his positional versatility was a big plus, there were clear concerns about giving him a big deal: His hard-hit rate was below average (42nd percentile, and that had been his best rating since 2017), he'd had knee, shoulder, back and wrist issues with the Cubs and he was turning 30. What could go wrong?
With the Rockies, everything that we saw potentially coming has gone wrong. Bryant's various ailments have led to seven different stints on the IL, including missing 31 games earlier this season with a back strain and then injuring his rib cage crashing into the wall this month. He's hit just .186 in the 24 games he's still played. He told the Denver Post in May that "I know [my talent] is still in there." I hope so, but given Bryant's age and the mounting list of injuries, it just might be too difficult to overcome a body that has betrayed him.
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
The deal: 11 years, $280 million, 2023-33
In the first year of the contract, Bogaerts was solid enough, producing a .790 OPS and 4.4 WAR. That was a little below his usual performance with the Red Sox, but the Padres would happily have taken that for the next seven or eight years. Instead, Bogaerts is hitting .219/.265/.316 and new manager Mike Shildt moved Bogaerts from shortstop to second base.
Bogaerts has never had elite velocity, but those figures have dropped noticeably the past two seasons, down to just 86.2 mph. The new bat tracking metrics show him with below-average bat speed. His strikeout rate, once excellent, is creeping a little closer to league average. He's probably not this bad and the metrics indicate he has hit into some bad luck, but at just 31 years old and with nine years left on his contract after this one, the red flags are already starting to pile up.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
The deal: 7 years, $245 million, 2020-26
Rendon was 30 and coming off a huge 2019 season (7.1 WAR, third in the MVP voting) that culminated with a World Series title when the Angels gave him a huge deal, envisioning a big three lineup of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Rendon. Rendon was fine during the COVID-shortened 2020 season (150 OPS+) but hasn't been able to stay healthy or hit well enough when he has been in the lineup since. He has played 167 games since 2021 and hit just .239/.336/.356. He has played just 19 games this season and is currently on the 60-day injured list with a hamstring tear.
The Angels will still owe Rendon $76 million for the 2025-26 seasons and with just 3.6 WAR earned in the first five seasons, this certainly has a chance to go down as one of the worst signings ever. Certainly, it's a large degree of bad luck -- teams are well aware of the risk involved with pitchers -- something that seems to strike the Angels more than other teams.