By this point of the season, teams have begun to sort themselves out. Still, with several weeks between now and the MLB trade deadline, there are more questions than answers about what approaches the teams will take.
As we take a snapshot of where all 30 teams are positioned right now -- separating them into four categories: October locks looking to fill postseason holes, contenders making a postseason push, fringe clubs and teams that should look to the future -- we'll focus our attention on what each of them needs to do to clarify its status by the time the clock strikes 6 p.m. ET on July 30.
Jump to:
Arming for October | Positioning for a push
Not out of it ... yet | Building for better days
Arming for October
Teams with high enough playoff probabilities that they'll start considering possible postseason roster holes.
1. New York Yankees
Win average: 103.4 (Last: 95.0, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 89.3%)
Champions: 19.7% (Last 10.4%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Yankees are on pace to post their best per-game run differential since 1998, a season that looms large in the memories of history-minded Bronx fans. Before that, you have to go back to the early days of Mickey Mantle to find a Bombers squad that clubbed opponents with such ferocity. The Orioles are so good that New York isn't likely going to be able to coast until late September, if then, in the quest for the AL's top seed. Still, the Yankees have banked enough wins that they should be able to manage the workloads of some of their oft-injured veterans while working Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt and Jasson Dominguez back into regular duty. A team can never have enough relievers, but this Yankees squad has been so successful that the primary objective between now and the deadline is simply to remain as healthy as possible. Because let's face it, none of this really matters in New York unless the Yankees are the last team standing when November arrives.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Win average: 101.0 (Last: 104.3, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.7%)
Champions: 26.8% (Last 29.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: There's enough left from the Dodgers' preseason forecast to keep L.A. as the odds-on favorite to win it all. Still, anyone paying attention can see that L.A. is by no means in a tier of its own. The Phillies have outplayed the Dodgers so far and have the potential to field a more-or-less ideal playoff roster. As the Dodgers await the returns of Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller, they don't have to be one of the teams overpaying for a starter at the deadline. They do need to think about positioning for the best available center fielder, because their outfield has been far from elite. Another key to-do: The Dodgers need to determine whether any of their relievers can be the end-of-the-game door-slammer they have often lacked in October. If not, they need that guy.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Win average: 100.6 (Last: 94.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 92.8%)
Champions: 14.8% (Last 5.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: This is the kind of season it has been for the Phillies: Star shortstop Trea Turner has missed around half the season, but his primary replacement, Edmundo Sosa, has been so good Philly hasn't really missed Turner at all. That development would be a tremendous comfort for the Phillies should Turner's hamstring woes linger. The Phillies have done everything well so far, but you really can't expect Dave Dombrowski to relax as the deadline approaches. Figuring out whether relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez are going to be October-reliable could determine how aggressively Dombrowski pursues help for the bullpen.
4. Baltimore Orioles
Win average: 97.0 (Last: 94.2, 4th)
In the playoffs: 96.7% (Last: 87.5%)
Champions: 8.3% (Last 8.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: This is a loaded Orioles team that might have an Achilles heel at the back of the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel has been roughly what he has been throughout this post-dominance phase of his career. He vacillates between looking a lot like peak Kimbrel to looking like a guy who would make you very nervous closing out a playoff game. Making sure Kimbrel is the best answer for their highest-leverage bullpen role is the biggest item on Baltimore's to-do list. That said, there is so much depth and talent in this organization that the Orioles are well positioned to improve at any spot they identify while possibly blocking a key rival (such as the Yankees) trying to fill a hole. Could be fun.
5. Cleveland Guardians
Win average: 93.0 (Last: 87.0, 13th)
In the playoffs: 88.1% (Last: 54.9%)
Champions: 4.2% (Last 1.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: How much of the Guardians' magical start is real, and how much has been, well, magic? Is Jose Ramirez really going to drive in 150-plus runs? (Well, if anyone can.) Is Steven Kwan going to hit .370? (He does make a lot of contact.) Is the often-impenetrable bullpen being overworked? There are no obvious indicators that suggest that what Cleveland has done at the bottom line is a fluke. But the extent to which the Guardians are actually a World Series contender needs to be determined over the next few weeks. If the Guardians are really this good, an organization that too often takes a passive approach to the deadline might need to get aggressive when it comes to patching any remaining holes.
6. Atlanta Braves
Win average: 92.4 (Last: 102.3, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 94.3% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last 22.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Amazing how many holes seem to crop up when a roster loses a reigning MVP (Ronald Acuna Jr.) and Cy Young favorite (Spencer Strider) for the season. The Braves' offense, sans Acuna, has been lackluster. Things will improve if Matt Olson continues to tick up. They will get even better if Austin Riley -- who has slugged .225 since returning from a side injury -- can get right. However, Atlanta might still need to address a shortfall in outfield production, as it did so effectively when Acuna was hurt in 2021. Whatever happens, given the way Philadelphia has played, Atlanta's run of six straight NL East titles is in serious jeopardy.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Win average: 90.3 (Last: 86.6, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 89.3% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last 1.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Before the season, the Brewers looked like a team poised to take a step back as it fielded a younger roster. Instead, Milwaukee is threatening to run away with the NL Central on the strength of the Brewers' best per-game run differential since the salad days of Paul Molitor and Robin Yount. The Brewers are fielding their highest-scoring offense this century, even before you take league context under consideration, and that's even though hyper-talented rookie Jackson Chourio is still finding his way in the majors. The bullpen has been perhaps the best in baseball even without star closer Devin Williams, who should be back in July. The rotation is riddled with injuries. Figuring out who will get healthy in that group is paramount, but no matter what, adding a front-line starter should be the focus when it comes to deadline additions. With the right move or two, this could be very dangerous team come October.
Positioning for a push
Teams with reasonable (or better) playoff probabilities looking to solidify a push for October.
8. Kansas City Royals
Win average: 87.8 (Last: 80.9, 24th)
In the playoffs: 60.6% (Last: 21.9%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Royals' fundamentals underscore their record. But that doesn't change the fact that the roster is weak at several spots, particularly when it comes to the bullpen and the outfield. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Kansas City has improved its baseline projection enough that most systems see them landing in the 85-to-90-win range at this point, but perhaps no other team in the top couple of tiers can so obviously get markedly better via the trade market. But how? The Kansas City farm system isn't a deep one. The best route for improving in the short term might be a willingness to take on money, never an easy thing for this franchise. The onus, then, might fall on the ownership group led by John Sherman, whose willingness to amp up the spending has been well rewarded so far. The key to further aggression is a simple one: Keep winning.
9. Houston Astros
Win average: 87.7 (Last: 89.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 68.9% (Last: 70.0%)
Champions: 4.7% (Last 6.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Simply put, the Astros have about a month to right the ship, or else there will be little choice but to shuffle a roster that is aging in several spots. Houston stopped its early slide but has never really gotten hot, and only the mediocrity of its division to date has prevented the Astros from being buried. Given Houston's placement in this group, the forecasts obviously see a roster with a lot of positive regression in the offing. But we need to see it, and soon, because the Astros haven't looked this lifeless for so long since before their current window of contention opened nearly a decade ago.
10. Minnesota Twins
Win average: 87.0 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 59.6% (Last: 68.3%)
Champions: 2.3% (Last 3.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Twins are in a strange spot. Before the season, they were largely anointed as favorites in the AL Central despite a tepid offseason. Minnesota has and arguably still has the most depth of talent in the division but some of that status was a product of generally low expectations for the Central as a whole. The streaky Twins have been OK, but the rest of the division, save for the woeful White Sox, has been much better than expected. Also, it feels like the Tigers, Royals and Guardians all have more top-of-the-roster star power than the Twins. That's not something to be addressed at the deadline. Instead, the Twins need to start showing signs that their depth will eventually outrace awards candidates on the other teams in the division.
11. Seattle Mariners
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 86.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 59.0% (Last: 53.1%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last 2.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The emergence of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo has given the Mariners a one-through-five core rotation that might be baseball's best. That group isn't the sole reason the Mariners have held first place in the AL West for most of the first half, but it is the best reason to think Seattle can stay there. The offense is obviously a mess, and every plus bat Jerry Dipoto can add to the middle of his lineup (and behind the scuffling Julio Rodriguez) will have an outsized impact. As Dipoto looks for that production, the next few weeks are a chance for rookies such as Ryan Bliss and especially Tyler Locklear to show they can be part of the short-term solution.
12. San Diego Padres
Win average: 83.0 (Last: 81.7, 17th)
In the playoffs: 49.6% (Last: 36.1%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last 0.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Padres will be hard-pressed to match the splash they made by acquiring Luis Arraez from Miami. In doubling down on what were already strengths in the Padres' attack, since that move San Diego has led the majors in batting average while posting the lowest strikeout rate and ranking third in OBP. Yet, the run scoring has been inconsistent because of a general lack of elite power and some clutch-hitting misfortune. A Manny Machado renaissance would aid the quest for power, but San Diego might need more than that, especially if Jurickson Profar begins to regress from his career-year pace. To focus on that one need, A.J. Preller could use a surge in the second and third tiers of his top-heavy bullpen, otherwise key resources might need to be aimed in that direction.
13. Chicago Cubs
Win average: 81.3 (Last: 88.6, 14th)
In the playoffs: 36.3% (Last: 75.3%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last 1.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Can the low-average Cubs amp up their longball game during the warm-weather months? This needs to happen, because an offense built to be a three-true-outcomes attack has not gotten nearly enough power to flourish on a consistent basis. The situational hitting has been abominable as well. So far, the warmer the weather has gotten, the colder the Cubs' offense has become. Targeting an elite bat before the deadline makes sense no matter what happens from here. Everything remains on the table for the high-wire-act Cubs, who have played more one-run games than any other team. The Cubs have especially struggled against velocity, a need which focuses the club's search for help over the weeks to come.
14. Texas Rangers
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 87.7, 9th)
In the playoffs: 20.3% (Last: 61.0%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last 3.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: All along, this has been the danger of having a roster built for the second half of the season and beyond -- you have to be in position to take advantage of the gradual return of injured stars. Right now, the Rangers are still in range of both the AL West lead and the last AL wild-card slot. But as you can see from Texas' sharply-declining odds, they are trending in the wrong direction and the problems are accelerating, especially on offense. The next two or three weeks will determine if the defending champs can justify any degree of aggression as the deadline approaches.
15. Toronto Blue Jays
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 81.4, 12th)
In the playoffs: 17.7% (Last: 24.7%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last 0.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Blue Jays have the best defensive outfield in baseball. The collective batting average from that group (.203) is easily baseball's worst and, no, they don't make up for that in the other slash categories. Despite the roster's focus on fielding, the overall run prevention has been below average, and the offense has often been a horror show. There is too much talent here for this prolonged exercise of running in place to continue, yet it has, and for much longer than just this season. Either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette lead some kind of offensive surge over the next few weeks, or it feels like some kind of shakeup needs to happen with this group.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
Win average: 80.5 (Last: 81.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 31.1% (Last: 35.9%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last 0.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Preseason optimism about the Diamondbacks (who are, after all, the reigning NL pennant winners) centered around the likelihood that a young roster would get better. It hasn't happened. The Snakes, in terms of runs scored and allowed, are basically exactly what they were during the 2023 regular season. Last year, Arizona outplayed its differential enough to finish over .500 and sneak onto the postseason bracket. This year, so far, they are not doing that. Before Arizona can think of making targeted additions for another run, they need to decide whether offseason pickup Eugenio Suarez might simply be done. And, more than anything, they need Corbin Carroll to shake off what has become a problematic sophomore slump. As with every mediocrity in the NL, there is time, because none of them is likely to fall out of contention -- not when break-even is above the bar.
17. St. Louis Cardinals
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 80.0, 15th)
In the playoffs: 28.8% (Last: 27.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last 0.6%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Cardinals haven't really done anything well this season. Still, the NL requires that six teams make the playoffs, and so St. Louis has returned to the ranks of contention. In some ways, the Redbirds have more reason than the other middling teams to think they can make a sustained run, simply because of positive regression. St. Louis has hovered near .500 despite a poor run differential, a lengthy injury to Willson Contreras and lackluster starts by both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. If you take some degree of self-correction in those areas and a step forward for either Jordan Walker or Dylan Carlson, that's a wild-card bid in this league, circa 2024. Playoff fever -- catch it!
18. Cincinnati Reds
Win average: 79.9 (Last: 78.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 26.1% (Last: 20.1%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Reds have been the Central's hottest team over the past three weeks or so, enough to boost Cincinnati into the four-team quagmire behind Milwaukee. The Reds are the only team in the division besides Milwaukee with a positive run differential, and if not for a 10-18 record in games decided by two runs or fewer, Cincinnati would be positioned as the biggest threat to the Brewers' bid for first place. The Reds have enough pitching to win the Central or land a wild-card slot, but they simply don't hit for enough power, especially for a club that plays in Great American Ballpark. The Reds could target the best power bat on the trade market, and because they don't have anything like an everyday DH, they don't have to worry about defense or position. That move needs to happen sooner rather than later and that's true even with the return of Matt McLain looming on the distant horizon.
19. Detroit Tigers
Win average: 79.5 (Last: 79.6, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.8% (Last: 17.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: It's hard to say what might or should happen with a Tigers team that just doesn't feel that far away. Detroit could go on a run and add, because the last wild-card slot is within reach. At the same time, in Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha and several relievers, Detroit has a number of obvious trade candidates who could deepen the Tigers' growing talent pool for 2025 and beyond. The problem is that for every good development, there has been an equally bad one. Riley Greene has developed; Spencer Torkelson has not. Flaherty was a free-agent bonanza; Javier Baez has been a catastrophe. The next few weeks will hopefully bring much of this into focus before hard deadline decisions have to be made.
Not out of it ... yet
Teams currently on the fringe of the playoff outlook but not yet certain to unload at the deadline.
20. Boston Red Sox
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 12.3% (Last: 25.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Red Sox are a bit of an odd duck, insofar as a baseball team can take on the qualities of a water fowl. They have been stuck around .500 for most of the season. Yet they have the fifth-best run differential in the AL, suggesting more successful days lie ahead. Yet again, no team has scored a larger percentage of its runs in low-leverage spots, many of them in a handful of blowout wins. That suggests Boston's run differential is misleading and that, in the end, its .500 mark is more or less what the Red Sox deserve. Some clarity, please? If anything, a hot streak that brings some attention to the outstanding seasons being enjoyed by Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck would be nice.
21. San Francisco Giants
Win average: 79.1 (Last: 77.6, 18th)
In the playoffs: 21.2% (Last: 16.9%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Some of it has been good. Logan Webb has been doing Logan Webb things. Matt Chapman has been a free agent hit. Heliot Ramos has emerged as one of baseball's hottest players and might have finally turned the corner in his development. But the Giants' pitching has been mediocre at best and a big disappointment at worst. They need to get Blake Snell back, and when he returns, they need it to turn out to be a good thing to have Blake Snell back, because the 9.51 ERA version of him wasn't working. Robbie Ray is nearing a return to the majors as well. You can still envision a rotation of Webb, Snell, Ray, Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison leading a second-half charge. That's the unit that must lead the way for Frisco. Then we can start puzzling over the bullpen.
22. New York Mets
Win average: 77.1 (Last: 79.9, 19th)
In the playoffs: 12.9% (Last: 26.0%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.4%)
What they need to do before the deadline: It's not going well, is it? To be fair, the Mets have exited freefall status with a few wins of late. If the deadline were, say, next week, this would be an obvious frenetic unloader, as New York has a number of useful walk-year vets, such as Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Jose Quintana, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, etc. We're not there quite yet, and yeah, a lot that has to do with the soft competitive landscape in the National League. But if the Mets can gain a game or two over the rest of June, much of July looks potentially soft. (Though opponents might be thinking the same thing when they see the Mets on the docket.) Given how most of this season has played out, the decision to punt on 2024 might need to be made before New York ever gets to that friendly stretch of schedule.
23. Tampa Bay Rays
Win average: 76.5 (Last: 81.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 5.1% (Last: 25.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.8%)
What they need to do before the deadline: In some ways, the Rays are the reverse of the Red Sox. They've been stuck around .500, but their lousy run differential suggests they are lucky to have a record even that good. But unlike Boston, the Rays have performed well in high leverage while letting things slide when things get out of hand. For Tampa Bay to prove that it is better than its record -- and differential -- it needs some disappointing performers to right the ship, especially the baffling Randy Arozarena. Otherwise, the Rays might quickly move into reshuffling mode as they look forward to a healthy pitching staff in 2025.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Win average: 75.6 (Last: 71.9, 25th)
In the playoffs: 9.3% (Last: 4.3%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Of the 73 million possible scenarios for the NL wild-card race, the most exciting one might be the one in which the Pirates snag the 6-seed and then unleash Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes and Jared Jones on the playoff bracket. It can happen, too, as the Pirates have bounced back from what might have become a season-killing slump. For that to happen, the Bucs need some more cannon fodder because they are bottom-three in WOBA at three different lineup slots. Seeing this team make a surprise deadline splash would be really fun.
25. Washington Nationals
Win average: 70.3 (Last: 67.3, 29th)
In the playoffs: 1.5% (Last: 1.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Nats probably -- almost certainly -- belong in the next tier down. Yet if you squint hard enough, you can see Washington making a second-half leap. No, really. The Nats' underlying indicators don't portend this, but they do have a core of young players in the majors and below who could crystallize just in time to string some wins together. That's probably not going to happen before the deadline, and their presence here might be just another jab in the eye reminding you of how hard it is to truly play yourself out of the National League playoff race. Still, let's call up James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House and see what happens. Well, at least Wood.
Building for better days
Teams that should be favoring future value over present value with remaining in-season moves.
26. Los Angeles Angels
Win average: 68.5 (Last: 69.0, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Starting right now, if it hasn't happened already, the Angels need to start pitting starter-thirsty teams against each other in an effort to maximize the return for Tyler Anderson. Then trade everyone else born before 1999. It's time for a thorough and complete reset; however, given Mike Trout's no-trade clause, some of that is beyond the Halos' control.
27. Oakland Athletics
Win average: 62.8 (Last: 66.0, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Athletics have had an admirable season, both for their occasional competitiveness and for their continued effort to build a new young core even amid the maddening uncertainty around the franchise. For a noncontending team, Oakland has a number of tradeable vets who might impact playoff races for other clubs (Brent Rooker, Paul Blackburn, etc.). The focus will be on electric righty Mason Miller, who could net a major return in a deadline deal. At the same time, if you're trading a player as young, good and with a salary as low as Miller's, what exactly are you doing? The calculus is complicated: What is Miller's future role? What is his injury risk? When does the team expect to return to contention?
28. Miami Marlins
Win average: 60.1 (Last: 62.2, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: This season has been a major letdown for the Fish. Moving vets before the deadline is the focus, and it'll be interesting to see who Miami targets. This is the first deadline go-around for first-year GM Peter Bendix, and he's not afraid to be bold (see: the Arraez trade). Miami still has the pitching in its system and on the IL to be a factor sooner rather than later. It's a sneakily important deadline for this team as it looks toward 2025.
29. Colorado Rockies
Win average: 58.3 (Last: 53.2, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: To put it gently, the Rockies have their own way of doing things. Nothing that happens between now and the trade deadline is going to change that. There are some worthy trade candidates on this roster -- Ryan McMahon, Cal Quantrill, Elias Diaz and perhaps Brendan Rodgers. For what it's worth.
30. Chicago White Sox
Win average: 49.3 (Last: 52.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The real action on the South Side over the next couple of weeks will be in the White Sox's front office as they try to calculate a realistic timeline for crawling out of the gaping hole this organization is currently in. Some of the walk-year vets will be almost certainly traded -- players like Erick Fedde, Paul DeJong and Tommy Pham. For others, it's more uncertain, with the key players being Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet. The White Sox can afford to keep them, but is the opportunity cost too high? Robert could be the most coveted outfielder in play at the deadline. Crochet is an emergent ace whose value might never be higher, especially considering his injury history. Similar calculations need to be made about Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech, among others.