As the July 30 MLB trade deadline slowly approaches and the market begins to heat up, one executive says there are only five teams that clearly have defined themselves as dealers: the Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels in the American League and the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies in the National League.
That's because the vast majority of teams -- those with even a hint of a chance at the playoffs -- will likely think twice before depleting their rosters.
"Look at the Nationals," he said. "They're only 2½ games out of the wild card. You've got a lot of teams in the mix -- a lot of teams that remember what happened with the Diamondbacks and the Rangers last year."
Indeed, Texas and Arizona barely made the playoffs last year -- the Rangers were a No. 5 seed and the Diamondbacks were a 6-seed -- but wound up playing in the World Series. Both got a big boost from making the championship series, and this year's bubble teams will be hoping for the same.
In the eyes of this executive and others, the relative parity of the two leagues will be one of the more significant X factors that will impact the action -- or inertia -- in the trade market over the next 50 days.
Let's dig into the other X factors that will rule this year's trade deadline based on what executives around the league are saying.
1. Teams will try to follow the paths of the 2023 World Series contenders ...
One club official cited the NL Central as the embodiment of the add-or-subtract quandary that could paralyze a lot of the trade talk in the coming months. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been dealers at the deadline in recent years, have a run differential of minus-17, but they are just a half-game back in the race for the NL's third wild-card spot and have the kind of starting pitching -- with Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones -- that could dominate in a short series in October.
"If they upgrade that offense just a little bit, they could be a tough out in the playoffs," one AL exec said. "They aren't typically buyers, but the National League stinks" -- he meant beyond the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves -- "and that's going to keep a lot of teams in the middle believing."
More contenders mean fewer dealers, of course, and fewer places for teams to find decent hitters.
2. ... even those that seemed like long shots
The St. Louis Cardinals, coming off a disastrous 2023 season, have played better of late, and the front office and manager Oliver Marmol could benefit from St. Louis reaching the playoffs. The Milwaukee Brewers were generally seen as a franchise in retreat after losing manager Craig Counsell to the Chicago Cubs and trading ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles this past offseason, so winning the NL Central would be huge. The Kansas City Royals won 56 games last year, and they clearly have improved; if they make the playoffs, it would be seen as a breakthrough for an organization early in the process of seeking funding for a new ballpark.
Executives around the sport believe these teams could lead the push for help at the trade deadline.
3. Financial flexibility is going to be a big deal
One official says the movement -- or lack thereof -- at the deadline will mirror the same kind of constricted dealmaking we saw in free agency during the winter. The Luis Arraez trade between Miami and the San Diego Padres might have been an example of what's to come: To facilitate the swap of the batting champion, the Padres required the Marlins to assume all of Arraez's salary for this season because of San Diego's reduced budget. In return, the Padres surrendered an enhanced package of prospects.
Some of the teams that have seen their television revenue evaporate because of the RSN problems might need a similar structure to make trades. For example, the Seattle Mariners could use help with their lineup but might not have as much available money as other clubs. If the M's were to make a move for someone such as Pete Alonso -- who is making $20.5 million this year -- could they convince the New York Mets to pick up some or all of the salary?
This storyline could serve as an advantage for a team such as the Mets, who made trades like this last summer, or any contender that has budgeted some money in reserve at the deadline.
4. The Toronto Blue Jays will play a huge role in deadline activity ...
A Blue Jays offense that was surprisingly mediocre in 2023 has been even worse this year, ranking 24th in the majors in runs. Toronto desperately needs its current cast to perform better -- and in recent weeks, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s production actually has improved. This is an organization that is now eight years removed from a playoff victory, so it could operate with a sense of desperation and add rather than trade away.
If the numbers become too daunting for the Blue Jays -- they're already essentially playing for the second or third wild card in the AL, given the dominance of the New York Yankees and the Orioles -- and the Jays decide to deal, they could shake up the trade market by taking offers for Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt.
Either way, they are barreling toward a crossroad decision.
5. ... and so will the Mets
If the Mets decide to unload talent -- when they decide to unload, in all likelihood -- head of baseball operations David Stearns will be very popular among his peers.
"I think they'll get through the draft and the All-Star break before the Mets decide they are ready to trade," one official said, "and when they do, they'll be in the center of a lot."
Between Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Sean Manaea, Jake Diekman and Adam Ottavino, the Mets have a lot of players who will draw interest from other teams.
6. The volatile market for relief pitchers will be robust
The Athletics' Mason Miller is the perfect example of this: He has some injury history, but right now, he is throwing a billion miles per hour, and contenders might look at him as a difference-maker in the postseason.
"That's when the relievers are as valuable as position players," one executive said, "because they work every day and you can't win [in October] without a great bullpen performance."
The A's could keep Miller -- that's the easy conservative play -- but with reliever breakdowns at epidemic levels and teams willing to turn over their bullpens almost from year to year, Miller's value might never be higher than right now. Contenders will bet (and spend) on a reliever in the summer in a way they wouldn't in the winter.
7. The Yankees and Phillies need to be in World Series-or-bust mode ...
New York is not assured to have Juan Soto on its roster beyond this campaign, and Philadelphia is coming off a frustrating postseason in which it seemed to have missed a great opportunity for its first championship since 2008. Within that context, the perception of rival executives is that the Yankees and Phillies will do whatever it takes to plug whatever holes they have before the trade deadline.
Interestingly, some execs with other teams don't have the same feeling about the Dodgers, who committed hundreds of millions of dollars last winter.
"If they don't win the World Series this year," one official said, posing a rhetorical question, "does anyone think their window changes? They'll be right back next year with [Shohei] Ohtani, [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto, Mookie [Betts], maybe [Roki] Sasaki, if they sign him. They're in a better position moving forward with their roster than the Yankees or Phillies."
8. ... but the Houston Astros might take a rare year off
Astros owner Jim Crane is as involved in baseball operations decisions as any of his peers -- or more so -- and some rival executives see him as very clear-eyed in his choices and philosophy. He famously never signs players to deals of more than six years, and he personally killed a trade for Willson Contreras two years ago after listening to feedback from manager Dusty Baker, who greatly valued the work of Martin Maldonado.
Last week, Houston general manager Dana Brown said he could not envision the Astros being dealers. But they've had a huge wave of injuries to starting pitchers, and while they've played better after a lousy April, another bad stretch could change their context entirely. If that happens, their most marketable players in the eyes of rival execs are Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Ryan Pressly.
Tucker, an MVP contender who will be an unrestricted free agent after next year, would be wildly attractive to other teams at a time when Crane might have to decide whether to break his own six-year rule to retain the right fielder. But some officials believe that if the Astros do decide to trade away players, Crane will use this year as a one-season reset, aiming to contend again in 2025 and focus on dealing Bregman and other players who aren't under contract beyond 2024.