For the first two months of this season, the posture emitted from Queens has been about winning -- about contending for the postseason in 2024.
"I believe in this team," New York Mets owner Steve Cohen told SNY just 12 days ago. "I fully expect to make the playoffs."
David Stearns, Cohen's head of baseball operations, expressed similar sentiments. "I think we're a good team," he told reporters. "I think we have a talented group that has a run in it and we probably haven't played our best baseball yet."
Since then, though, the Mets have gone 3-7, falling to 22-30 on the season. They are already 14½ games behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and six games behind the Atlanta Braves. The metrics suggest their sliver of hope is to win the second or third wild card in a crowded field of contenders. Since Cohen's comments on May 16, their chances of winning a playoff spot on FanGraphs halved again, from 25.3% to 12.8%.
Sure, there are 110 games left to play in the regular season, and teams' odds can change all the time. (Just ask the Braves, who are now planning for another season without Ronald Acuna Jr.) Maybe Cohen turns out to be right; maybe his team, built on the highest payroll in the majors, have a big run in them. But some rival executives believe that the reality of playing in the same division as two of the best teams in the majors, as well as relying on a piecemeal pitching staff with an injured ace in Kodai Senga, will eventually move the Mets into sell mode.
"They kind of are who I thought they would be," said one NL evaluator. "If Senga's out, there isn't enough [pitching] to make up for the offense."
If the Mets do wind up selling, they have a fair number of players who could be attractive to other teams:
Pete Alonso: The big question that looms over the Mets is whether they will re-sign Alonso to a long-term deal before -- or after -- he reaches free agency in the fall. It's possible they could reengage with Alonso's agent, Scott Boras, before the trade deadline. But Boras' well-established practice is to take his clients into free agency when he has the opportunity, theoretically for maximum leverage. (Although this did not work out for Matt Chapman, who was offered a deal in the $120 million range by the Blue Jays last spring before he settled for $50 million with the Giants in free agency.)Sources say that the Mets and Alonso are far apart in what they perceive his market value to be. If the Mets aren't contending and they don't work out a long-term deal with Alonso before the deadline, he'll be perhaps the biggest name on the trade market -- presenting the potential of an immediate power upgrade for any team that acquires him. He would seem to be a possible fit for the Astros, Tigers, Guardians and Cubs, among others.
Luis Severino: With the 30 teams generally relying more and more on relievers to absorb innings, and with the usual wave of injuries to starters around the game -- like the Marlins' Jesus Luzardo -- there might be few starting pitchers available at the deadline. The 30-year-old Severino would check a lot of boxes: He's throwing effectively early this season, posting a 3.22 ERA in his first 10 starts, with four homers allowed and 50 strikeouts in 58⅔ innings. Severino spent the offseason refining a sinker that seems to be working well for him and in addressing his past problem of tipping pitches. His contract also wouldn't be that expensive. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal in the hope of having a bounce-back season before reentering the free agent market -- and anyway, if the Mets conduct business as they did last summer with Max Scherzer, they might prefer to pay off the player's salary in return for a better prospect package. And having spent his entire career in New York, he's got big-market and playoff experience, which would make him a possible fit for a wider range of teams -- including the New York Yankees, if they incur some injuries.
Sean Manaea. He's pitching on a one-plus-one contract -- $14.5 million for this year, plus a player option for 2025 -- and the way he has been performing (3.16 ERA over his first 10 starts), the left-hander could benefit from another pass through free agency. Like Severino, he could be coveted in a thin market of starters.
Jose Quintana. His contract with the Mets expires after this season, which makes him an option -- but he'll have to pitch better than he has so far this year to build his value.
Starling Marte. The 35-year-old outfielder is owed about $35 million for the rest of this year and for 2025, but again, the Mets have demonstrated they will absorb salary in trading their players. There are some contenders, like the Kansas City Royals, who could use an outfield upgrade, and Marte can still be a productive player, although he's off to a mediocre start this season. In trading Marte, the Mets could open up space for their glut of position player prospects.
J.D. Martinez. He has an adjusted OPS+ of 132, following his strong 2023 showing for the Dodgers. He would be a specialty player in the trade market, given that he's limited to DH duties, but at the deadline, there are always contenders looking for thump.
Harrison Bader. He's playing on a one-year, $10.5 million deal and is hitting .279. He continues to be regarded as a very good defender, capable of playing three positions.
Jorge Lopez, Jake Diekman, Adam Ottavino. The Mets could be a one-stop shop for contenders for relief pitching. Lopez is playing for $2 million this year; the lefty Diekman is making $4 million this year, and his deal with the Mets contains a $1 million buyout of a $4 million team option for 2025; Ottavino is making $4.5 million.
Reed Garrett. The right-hander has been a revelation for the Mets this year after refining a split-fingered fastball; he has struck out 43 of the 114 hitters he has faced. Garrett has emerged at age 31, with just over a year of service time, and it might be that Stearns prefers to keep him to be part of the Mets' bullpen in 2025. But relievers are also notoriously volatile in their performance, and Garrett's value will never be higher than it is right now. Stearns could cash in while Garrett is at his best and get good return for a reliever who is making close to minimum wage.
No matter what the Mets do at the trade deadline, they will shed a huge portion of their payroll going into next year, giving Stearns some flexibility. He'll have to decide whether he wants to augment that payroll space with more prospects gleaned at the deadline.