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ESPN MLB Insider- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of 'Future Value'
Top MLB prospect Jackson Holliday is coming to the big leagues!
Holliday, Kiley McDaniel's No. 1 prospect, will join the Baltimore Orioles in Boston, according to ESPN reports. The move comes just a few weeks after general manager Mike Elias said Holliday was "very, very close" before announcing the infielder would start the season in Triple-A. In 10 games with the Norfolk Tides, Holliday -- the son of seven-time MLB All-Star Matt Holliday -- batted .333 with an OPS of 1.077, scoring 18 runs, nine RBIs and two homers.
Now, he'll join the big league club with a chance to become one of the brightest young stars in the majors. What made the Orioles decide the time was right? And what can we expect from Holliday on the biggest stage? ESPN insiders Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel weigh in.
Why is now the time for Holliday to join the Orioles?
One could have argued rather convincingly that the time for Holliday to join the Orioles was Opening Day, but (if he remains up for the rest of the year) the No. 1 prospect in baseball will spend nearly 94% of the season with the reigning American League East champions.
The calculus for why now is multipronged. Third baseman Ramon Urias' 2-for-22 start paved the way for Jordan Westburg to move off second base -- where Holliday will play -- and shift to third. Baltimore started its season facing five left-handed starters in nine games, and Holliday's OPS was 223 points worse against lefties than right-handed pitchers in the minor leagues last season. The New York Yankees blazing to a 10-2 record has staked them an early three-game advantage on Baltimore, so the O's are already looking to make up ground.
Yes, the Orioles are potentially burning the ability to squeeze an extra year of service time from Holliday -- but they called him up in time to earn an extra first-round draft pick if he wins AL Rookie of the Year. -- Jeff Passan
What can we expect from him this season?
He's the top prospect in baseball, and for much of the spring was expected to start the season with the big league club -- so naturally, the expectation is that he will hit the ground running as a real contributor, not just a role player in the background.
Let me temper those expectations a bit. Holliday is -- or projects to soon be -- above average at basically every part of hitting: hitting for average, hitting for power, pitch selection and bat speed. But he doesn't project to be plus-plus at any one thing, like having the raw power or bat speed of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr., so Holliday is more well-rounded than awe-inspiring.
He could eventually end up being plus at all of those offensive qualities (which is rare), but some funny things can happen in the first month or two of facing big league pitching -- even to future perennial All-Stars. I'd expect average-to-a-bit-above offensive production (FanGraphs projects him for .256 with seven homers in 99 games, which is 10% above league average offensively) with some glimpses of greatness, along with some value on the basepaths and on defense.
There's a shot he puts all the pieces together and gives us a Julio Rodriguez or Corbin Carroll fireworks show on a nightly basis, but that's more of a best-case scenario than something I'd expect. -- Kiley McDaniel
Let's go back -- what does this mean for Holliday's service time or award eligibility?
Of all the factors involved in the decision, the potential for Holliday, 20, to earn the Orioles another first-round selection through his call-up weighed perhaps most heavily. The Prospect Promotion Incentive -- a system instituted in the most recent collective-bargaining agreement -- grants teams that give a full year of service to a top prospect the ability to collect a draft choice if the player wins Rookie of the Year.
In 2022, Baltimore waited seven weeks to summon catcher Adley Rutschman to the big leagues. After he finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, not only did the Orioles not reap the draft pick, Rutschman was awarded a full year of service through the PPI anyway. Infielder Gunnar Henderson, on the other hand, broke camp with Baltimore and, when he won Rookie of the Year in 2023, Baltimore was rewarded with the 32nd pick in this year's draft and $2.84 million extra in bonus-pool money.
Certainly Holliday has some competition for the award, with Texas outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, Boston utility man Ceddanne Rafaela, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio, Detroit second baseman Colt Keith and Yankees right-hander Luis Gil among the top candidates. But nobody has stood out so far, and the Orioles have a win-win situation with Holliday: If he thrives, they'll be in line for the pick, and if he struggles, they can option him back to Triple-A, keep his service time down, and keep him from reaching free agency until after the 2030 season instead of 2029. -- Passan
Who are the next players coming out of the Orioles' system?
The Orioles' Triple-A team featuring Holliday made headlines recently with a 26-run outburst, and that performance was not a fluke. If you average the offensive projections of the Colorado Rockies' big league lineup and the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk, the mighty Norfolk Tides actually are expected to hit better than the Rockies -- a major league baseball team. That's an abstract idea and of course ignores defense, baserunning and all of the pitchers involved, but it helps underscore how loaded the options are for the Orioles should another regular struggle or get hurt.
Holliday, 3B Coby Mayo and OF Heston Kjerstad are all in the top half of my winter Top 100 who have the earned hype from hot starts with the Tides. Like Holliday, Mayo is above average at everything in the batter's box, but he plays third base, is right-handed and has plus-plus power potential if it all clicks. Kjerstad has had a bumpy ride since being the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, but the 25-year-old is locked in so far this season and also has plus-plus power, with legitimate excitement to some of his hacks (if you're old, the name Jeromy Burnitz still means something to you).
Two other standouts from the Triple-A roster are Kyle Stowers, who does a version of what Kjerstad does, and Connor Norby, a pure hitter with some pop who fits at second base and left field. Lefty Cade Povich and righty Chayce McDermott are real prospects in the rotation at Triple-A along with rehabbing big league lefty John Means. And that's before we even get into Baltimore's Double-A team, which has another top-50 overall prospect in catcher Samuel Basallo along with a number of other real prospects. Even with Holliday now headed to the big leagues, this system is stacked. -- McDaniel