Given the events of last week, the 2024 season for the Los Angeles Dodgers promises to be even wilder and more unpredictable than anyone could have imagined. After committing nearly $1.2 billion in the offseason to sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and acquire-and-extend Tyler Glasnow -- plus signing Teoscar Hernandez, James Paxton and Joe Kelly -- the Dodgers are the favorite to win it all. It's World Series-or-bust for them.
The first two games in Korea against the San Diego Padres, however, exposed a couple of potential concerns: First, Yamamoto has a lot to improve upon to justify that 12-year, $325 million contract; second, the infield defense might be a problem.
Still, on paper, the Dodgers look like they might be headed to an unprecedented fourth straight 100-win season: My colleague Bradford Doolittle ran his projected stats for the Dodgers and in over 10,000 simulations, they won an average of 102.1 games. They also won the World Series 24.9% of the time. (We should note here: The Atlanta Braves had slightly better results, averaging 102.8 wins and winning the World Series 26% of the time.)
The Dodgers could even challenge their franchise record of 111 wins from two years ago, which is tied for the fourth most wins in MLB history. You never know, of course, but in the simulations Brad ran, they won 117 or more games more times (373 times, or 3.7%) than they won fewer than 90 games (107, or 1.1%). It's mind-boggling that they might have better odds of setting the single-season wins record (currently 116) than winning fewer than 90 games. The trio of Mookie Betts, Ohtani and Freddie Freeman gives the offense a ridiculously high floor if all three remain healthy, and the pitching depth appears deep enough to overcome even a couple of significant injuries.
All that to say, there's little doubt that the Dodgers will be great in the regular season, but we decided to actually play out how it could go -- and we ended up with some pretty interesting, and fun, results.
Using the "Out of the Park Baseball" game, we simulated 10 seasons of Major League Baseball using current rosters and player projections and ratings for 2024 -- but letting the game's AI engine manage all the teams and roster moves. That meant minor league call-ups, when necessary, and player injuries that affected teams' records. And the postseason? Perhaps even more surprising than real life.
Let's dig into some of the key factors that will define the 2024 Dodgers by going through each of the simulations.
Introducing your 2024 World Series champions ...
The year of ... Wait, who won World Series MVP?
Record: 103-59 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Beat Cleveland Guardians in 7 to win World Series (MVP: Andy Pages)
Key highlight: Pages hits .274/.350/.520 in 179 at-bats
We've got a winner! The Dodgers finally make a World Series -- and win it behind a surprise MVP in Pages.
Who is Pages, you might ask, and will he actually make an impact this season? Pages is a power-hitting outfielder with good plate discipline, No. 5 among Dodgers' prospects in Kiley McDaniel's rankings and No. 87 overall. He was injured much of 2023 but hit .277/.425/.482 in 34 games (33 in Double-A), and he hit 26 home runs in Double-A in 2022. He'll start the season at Triple-A but has the ability to hit his way into a regular role -- or at least as a platoon partner with Jason Heyward. Heyward hit surprisingly well last season but struggled in 2021 and '22, so there's a path where Heyward doesn't hit and Pages takes over on a full-time basis ... and, apparently, wins World Series MVP honors.
Everything goes right ... until October
The year of ... Shohei Ohtani's power
Record: 104-58 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Arizona Diamondbacks in National League Division Series
World Series: Milwaukee Brewers over New York Yankees in 5 (MVP: Rhys Hoskins)
Key highlight: Ohtani hits 58 home runs, drives in 144 runs
This simulation had an eerie resemblance to 2023: Yamamoto, who had gone 13-6 with a 3.43 ERA, and Clayton Kershaw, who had returned from shoulder surgery, both got injured at the end of the regular season and the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in the division series -- including an 18-6 victory in the second game.
Anyway, Ohtani obviously has had a dark cloud over the start to his season, and we don't know how real-life Ohtani will mentally handle everything. He hasn't been placed on administrative leave while MLB investigates, and expectations are that he'll remain on the roster, as of course he does in our simulation -- and simulation Ohtani is a beast.
What is his ultimate upside as a hitter? Will he really top last season, when he blasted 44 home runs in just 135 games and hit .304/.412/.654? That's a 52-homer pace over 160 games. Indeed, Ohtani cut his strikeout rate from 29.6% in 2021 to 23.9% last season, leading to more balls in play and a higher batting average. Moving from Angel Stadium to Dodger Stadium is probably a wash -- while Dodger Stadium has been an excellent home run park in recent years, Ohtani always hit well in Anaheim, with 99 home runs there compared to 72 on the road during his Angels career.
It's also possible that, freed from the rigors of pitching and able to focus solely on hitting in 2024, Ohtani gets even better at the plate. However, it's worth noting that in his 23 starts as a pitcher last season he hit .371 with seven home runs in 78 at-bats, so it's difficult to suggest pitching hurt his offense. Another consideration is that with Ohtani and Freeman hitting back-to-back in the lineup, that pair is going to see a lot of left-handers out of the bullpen. Last season, Ohtani hit .327 and slugged .701 against right-handers while hitting .245 and slugging .532 against lefties, with 28% of his plate appearances coming against southpaws. I have to think that percentage will go up in 2024 as opposing managers will look to start as many lefties as possible against a Dodgers lineup that is heavily left-handed.
Bottom line: 50 home runs is in play. Sixty? Hard to imagine -- but when has that stopped him before?
The year of ... The L.A. bullpen
Record: 104-58 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Brewers in NLDS
World Series: Kansas City Royals over St. Louis Cardinals in 4 (MVP: Kyle Isbel)
Key highlight: Evan Phillips records 52 saves with a 1.95 ERA
The Royals? Pretty hard to believe, but that highlights what could happen in this playoff system -- and almost what happened last year with the Diamondbacks. In this simulation, the Royals were just 82-80 in the regular season, but that was good enough to win the American League Central and they got hot in the simulated postseason.
As for the Dodgers, Phillips was great in the regular season before losing twice to the Brewers in our simulation playoffs. He has been one of MLB's top relievers the past two seasons with a 1.59 ERA -- not bad for a guy the Dodgers claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay -- but he remains untested as a playoff closer (although he's allowed no runs in 8⅔ career postseason innings).
The Dodgers' bullpen has historically been excellent in the regular season. Check their annual rankings in ERA:
2023: Third
2022: Second
2021: Second
2020: Second
2019: Fourth
2018: Eighth
2017: Fourth
Dodgers fans, however, know all too well about postseason disasters, from Kenley Jansen's blown saves against the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox in the World Series in 2017 and 2018 to Kershaw's blown save in relief in Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS against the Washington Nationals to manager Dave Roberts using Max Scherzer to close out the series against the San Francisco Giants in 2021, which affected Scherzer's usage in the NLCS, to the bullpen blowing a 3-0 lead in the seventh inning against the Padres in 2022.
On paper, the bullpen once again looks like a potential strength, although besides Phillips, Roberts will be counting on Ryan Brasier, who was claimed off waivers last season from the Red Sox; 37-year-old Daniel Hudson, who pitched just three innings in 2023 and 24 in 2022; Kelly, who still throws hard but had a 5.07 ERA over the past two seasons; plus Brusdar Graterol, the top setup reliever last year who is currently on the IL with shoulder soreness. Roberts' main goal here is get this group to October in good health -- and then hope the pen finally delivers.
The year of ... Bobby Miller's breakthrough
Record: 97-65 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Brewers in NLDS
World Series: Texas Rangers over Giants in 6 (MVP: Wyatt Langford)
Key highlight: Miller goes 9-3 with a 3.38 ERA
This was Miller's best season in the simulations, although he somehow managed just 12 decisions in 31 games started. Miller had an excellent rookie season in 2023, riding his upper 90s fastball to an 11-4 record and 3.76 ERA over 22 starts. Still, the projections don't forecast much improvement, with FanGraphs applying a 3.88 ERA for its depth charts.
I can see the factors there: Miller's strikeout rate was good but not great as a rookie, ranking 56th out of 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings. His overall swing-and-miss rate was just slightly above average, as was his hard-hit rate. The fastball was hittable at times, with batters hitting a combined .258 against his four-seamer and sinker (albeit without much power).
Still, I love the potential for a breakout here. Miller throws 99 mph, gets a lot of ground balls and has a five-pitch repertoire, with all five pitches producing effective results (his slider was his weakest offering, one reason right-handed batters hit better off him than lefties). The command continues to improve from his college and minor league days and he has a strong, durable build. I'll take the under on that 3.88 ERA -- I think it'll be closer to that simulated 3.38 mark. I suspect Miller will be a huge part of the Dodgers' success this season.
The year of ... Mookie for MVP
Record: 96-66 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Braves in NLCS
World Series: Braves over Red Sox in 5 (MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.)
Key highlight: Betts hits .296/.398/.604 with 43 home runs, 119 RBIs
This was the one simulation where Ohtani got injured, playing just 31 games due to a thigh injury and then an oblique strain. There was even a little turmoil after a losing streak in July caused Freeman to call for a players-only meeting. The Dodgers responded with a 21-6 month in August -- and it looks like Betts came to the rescue. (If he, Freeman and Ohtani all stay healthy, they do have a chance to become the greatest single-season offensive trio in MLB history.)
Those numbers for Betts aren't far off from what he did last season: .307/.408/.579 with 39 home runs. He already started the season off with a bang, going 6-for-9 against the Padres with a home run and seven RBIs. If Acuna declines just a bit from his monster 2023 season, Betts could certainly win his second MVP award.
One of my favorite Bill James "junk stats" is MVP award shares, which is the percentage of total possible points a player can receive in MVP voting. A unanimous MVP, for example, gets 1.00 award shares. Betts was second in the voting last year to Acuna with 270 points out of a possible 420, earning a 0.64 award share. Betts -- with one MVP, three runner-up results and three other top-10 finishes -- is already 20th in MVP award shares (only Mike Trout is higher among active players). Another 0.64 share would bump him to 16th. He has a chance to finish in the top 10 all time. All this is a way of saying that it's time to start thinking of Betts not as just one of the best all-around players in today's game, but as an all-time legend. If he holds his own at shortstop, that legend should rightfully grow even bigger. He's 31 and, like Freeman, showing no signs of slowing down.
As for that 21-6 month in the simulation, this is what makes the Dodgers so dangerous: They're so deep and so talented, they go on a roll like that every season. Last year, it was 24-5 in August. In 2022, they went 43-11 in July and August. In 2021, they went 43-13 in August and September (although still fell a game short of the San Francisco Giants). In 2019, they went 19-7 in May and 18-6 in September.
This year, look for a big run starting in late May and into June, a stretch when they'll play the Colorado Rockies a couple of times, plus the Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Royals, Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox.
Not quite what L.A. had in mind
The year of ... the deep lineup
Record: 93-69 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Astros in 4 in World Series (MVP: Yordan Alvarez)
Key highlight: James Outman hits 41 home runs
The Dodgers make another World Series appearance only to see their old nemesis, Houston, sweep them. Ohtani hits 50 home runs and Yamamoto goes 19-5 with a 2.81 ERA, but the big surprise here was Outman slugging 41 home runs -- a huge leap over the 23 he hit as a rookie in 2023.
Are you buying that kind of improvement? It feels like a reach given Outman's propensity to whiff (181 strikeouts in 567 plate appearances, ranking in the sixth percentile of all hitters in strikeout rate) and his inability as a rookie to do much damage against left-handers (.254 average, but just one home run in 130 at-bats). On the other hand, after a hot start and then a slow middle of the season, he did hit 11 home runs over the final two months as his plate discipline improved. His first two games against the Padres were intriguing: three walks and no strikeouts.
In the big picture, the possibility of Outman becoming a 30-homer guy speaks to the depth of the Dodgers' lineup. While the focus is understandably on the big three at the top, the lineup goes much deeper. Outman had a 118 wRC+ last season (matching Max Muncy, while Will Smith was at 119), which was the same as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and higher than Bobby Witt Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. (just to name the juniors). Jason Heyward had a 121 wRC+ in a platoon role in 2023 and Gavin Lux was at 114 when he last played in 2022. This lineup is incredibly deep and should go toe-to-toe with the Braves for best in the majors.
The year of ... Glasnow at his best -- and worst
Record: 92-70 (first in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Braves in NLCS
World Series: Astros over Braves in 5 (MVP: Kyle Tucker)
Key highlight: Glasnow goes 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA but misses eight weeks with a strained shoulder
Since 2019, Glasnow is 26-11 with a 3.04 ERA and a ridiculous 465 strikeouts in 337⅔ innings. But he missed a large chunk of 2019 with a forearm strain, had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and missed the start of last season with an oblique strain -- though he did manage to pitch a career-high 120 innings in 2023 anyway. The Dodgers, who acquired Glasnow from the Tampa Bay Rays and signed him to a five-year, $136.5 million extension, are hoping for a full season of good health; however, the simulation still views him as an injury risk.
In terms of pure stuff, few starters can match Glasnow's combination of a high-velocity, riding fastball and two elite breaking balls. You can certainly see why the Dodgers were willing to make a big investment in him: There is top-five starter potential here if he can pitch 160-170 innings.
It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers end up distributing their starts over 162 games, especially keeping in mind the ultimate goal: to have a healthy rotation heading into October, unlike last season. Yamamoto is used to pitching once a week in Japan, so the Dodgers might not want to use a strict five-man rotation. The Mets, for example, started Kodai Senga -- who was a rookie in 2023 after coming over from Japan -- just three times on four days of rest all last season. Even if Glasnow remains healthy, it seems unlikely the Dodgers will want to push him much past 160 innings. As for the other pitchers: Walker Buehler is starting the season on the injured list as the Dodgers slowly ramp him back from Tommy John surgery; Paxton has an extensive injury history; and Kershaw won't be back until late in the season.
Still, with Miller and some of the other young starters who could end up making an impact -- Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, River Ryan -- the Dodgers have enviable rotation depth. FanGraphs projects them with the best rotation in baseball, just ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies and Braves. It could be Glasnow, and not Yamamoto, who leads the way.
The year of ... the ageless Freddie Freeman
Record: 91-71 (second in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Braves in NLDS
World Series: Minnesota Twins over Padres in 5 (MVP: Byron Buxton)
Key highlights: Freeman hits .311 with 53 doubles
In this simulation, Freeman's .311 mark was good enough to win the batting title -- although he couldn't quite chase 60 doubles like he did in 2023 when he finished with 59. There have been just six seasons with 60 doubles in MLB history, but the last of those came in 1936, so a 60-double season in this era of baseball would be a historically impressive feat. Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies' president of baseball operations, said this offseason that the best hitters are the ones who hit a lot of doubles -- and that's Freeman. He sprays line drives all over the park better than any hitter in the game today, and he has hit .300 in four consecutive seasons and seven out of the past eight (he hit .295 the one year he fell short).
Freeman is 34, an age when it's harder than ever to produce at a high level, yet he shows no signs of slowing. Last season, there were just 11 batters 34 years or older who produced a league-average OPS+ and only Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez and Paul Goldschmidt were at 120 or higher. Freeman hit .331/.410/.567 for a 161 OPS+, which is the second highest of his career and highest over a full season. He's the perfect blend of hit tool, power and plate discipline, a skill set that should allow him to continue putting up big numbers well into the future.
Freeman reminds me of David Ortiz -- not only was Ortiz adept at going the opposite way and popping doubles off the Green Monster, but he managed to cut down on his strikeouts as he got older. Ortiz struck out over 20% of the time in 2009 and 2010, but then cut his strikeout rate to under 15% the rest of his career -- even as rates climbed across the sport. He never had another bad season, and in his final year in 2016 at age 40, he hit .315 and led the AL in OPS.
Early in his career, Freeman annually posted strikeout rates over 20%, including as high as 24.7% in 2016. Over the past four seasons, with strikeout rates higher than ever, he's been at just 15.3%. That's how you hit .300 every season. Like Ortiz, Freeman might keep raking until the day he retires.
They spent $320 million for this??
The year of ... Yamamoto's big adjustment
Record: 85-77 (second in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Cardinals in wild-card series
World Series: Padres over Yankees in 7 (MVP: Xander Bogaerts)
Key highlight: Yamamoto goes 15-8 with a 3.27 ERA
Yamamoto's first start with the Dodgers was a disaster: one inning, 43 pitches, five runs, four hits, one walk, one hit batter, just four swings-and-misses. He allowed four hard-hit balls of 95-plus mph in the inning.
"Just didn't have the command and so it's not about the stuff," manager Dave Roberts said. "When you're a command guy, which he's been his entire career, his life, and you just misfire, get behind in counts, hit batters, that's just not who he is."
ESPN's Buster Olney relayed a message from a major league player suggesting Yamamoto's easy delivery, in which he steps and throws, offers little deception. The 25-year-old had also been tinkering with his glove placement during spring training over concerns of sign stealing.
It's worth mentioning that a year ago, Yamamoto was viewed as a $100 million pitcher. Then as free agency began, people thought that maybe he could get $200 million. Then the Dodgers gave him a stunning $325 million ... and now he needs to make some mechanical adjustments? For the Dodgers to give him that kind of contract, they certainly have extreme confidence not only in the scouting reports and dominant statistical results in Japan but also in the pitch metrics that suggest he will be an ace.
My biggest question with Yamamoto concerns the low level of offense he faced in Japan. The Japan Pacific League, where he posted a 1.16 ERA in 2023, averaged just 3.45 runs per game compared to the MLB average of 4.65. Pacific League batters homered every 46.7 at-bats compared to every 28 at-bats in the majors. Yamamoto could get away with making more mistakes and not paying a price in Japan; that won't be the case in the majors. It didn't help that his best pitch is a wipeout splitter and he didn't have any feel for it against the Padres -- even his two strikeouts came on a cutter and a curveball.
Anyway, it was one start, a bad one, but it's way too early to jump to any conclusions about his 2024 performance. He was a superior pitcher in Japan to Senga, for example, and Senga posted a 2.98 ERA with the Mets in his rookie season last year. Yamamoto should be fine -- but it's also possible he's not a $325 million ace.
The year of ... Muncy's limitations
Record: 83-79 (second in NL West)
Playoff results: Lose to Cardinals in NLDS
World Series: Baltimore Orioles over Chicago Cubs in 5 (MVP: Gunnar Henderson)
Key highlight: Muncy hits .171/.272/.374
The Dodgers struggled in this simulation, finishing in a tie for first with the Diamondbacks at 83-79 and losing the division tiebreaker. L.A. then beat Arizona in the wild-card series before losing to the Cardinals in the next round. It was a rough season in particular for Muncy, who struggled, and Chris Taylor ended up getting the majority of at-bats at third base.
In the Dodgers' second game against the Padres in Korea, Muncy had as bad of a day as you can have in the field, with four misplays at third base (although he was charged with just two errors). While he has had some surprisingly good defensive metrics in the past, that wasn't the case in 2023 -- Statcast ranked him in the 14th percentile in outs above average. This year, though, with Ohtani a full-time DH, there is nowhere else to play Muncy.
"I don't think tonight was indicative of what's going to happen going forward, but obviously there's plays that need to be made, for sure," Roberts said after the game, adding that Muncy had been working on his defense to improve from 2023.
Muncy isn't the only issue in the infield, though. Lux was so bad at shortstop in spring training that Roberts moved to fix that problem before the season even started, sliding Betts there and Lux to second base. I liked the initiative, rather than letting that situation linger into the regular season, and if anyone can pull off this move, it's Betts -- but the likeliest scenario is that he's a below-average shortstop. Look, Betts is a baseball miracle, but you've taken one of the best defensive right fielders of all time and moved him to second base and now shortstop. His Statcast metrics in his time at second base last season were a little below average, despite the accolades, and the transition to shortstop is even more difficult. Maybe Betts will make the adjustments, but there's a chance the Dodgers end up with below-average defense at three infield spots.
They do have alternatives: Miguel Rojas is a plus defensive shortstop, although he brings little with the bat. Taylor and Enrique Hernandez can play the infield, although Hernandez's metrics at shortstop with the Red Sox last season were poor. While Muncy was an underrated hitter last season -- he hit 36 home runs with an .808 OPS -- he also hit just .155 against lefties, and his overall batting average was under .200 in 2022. If his defense continues to collapse, the Dodgers might have to ultimately decide if the offense Muncy and Betts provide outweighs their potential defensive shortcomings, or if a realignment is in order. Could Betts moving back to second and Rojas hopping in at shortstop lead to a trade deadline deal for a third baseman?
In the end, no matter how good the Dodgers are in the regular season or how stacked their roster might be, a World Series title is hardly a sure thing. The Braves are just as good -- if not better -- and even if the Dodgers get past the Braves and the rest of the NL in October, a strong AL opponent likely looms in the World Series. However, that's six months away -- six months for the Dodgers to prove themselves as one of the greatest teams of all time, or one of the biggest busts.