This is shaping up to be the most important season for the New York Yankees in decades -- and that's not just the usual hyperbole that surrounds the franchise.
They missed the playoffs in 2023, sitting out October for the first time since 2016, and came dangerously close to ending a now 31-year streak without a losing season. Manager Aaron Boone and general manager Brian Cashman could both find their seats hotter by season's end, as fans used to cheering for World Series contenders might instead be clamoring for their heads on talk radio if the team flails to another mediocre season.
The Yankees enter 2024 with a roster many consider among baseball's best. And yet -- stop us if you've heard this before -- there is already a state of uncertainty surrounding the pitching staff. Gerrit Cole's ailing elbow won't require Tommy John surgery, but he's going to miss the start of the 2024 campaign. His status, combined with Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes returning from injuries, has turned the starting rotation into a question mark.
That means the offense is absolutely crucial to the Yankees' championship hopes.
They traded five players to acquire Juan Soto to help boost the offense -- but he's under contract for just one season with no guarantee he'll return as a free agent. Aaron Judge, as great as he is, turns 32 in April and played just 106 games last year. Giancarlo Stanton is coming off a season in which he hit rock bottom, slashing just .191/.275/.420.
While the 25-year-old star slugger provides a much-needed boost to the lineup, and getting the best versions of those three in the middle of the order is vital, more has to go right for an offense that has been mediocre in recent years.
In 2021, Judge and Stanton were both healthy and combined for 74 home runs, but there wasn't much else around them and the Yankees scored 711 runs, 10th in the American League. In 2022, the Yankees scored an AL-best 807 runs, thanks in part to Judge's historic 62-homer campaign. In 2023, they hit .227, with only Judge and Gleyber Torres producing an above-average OPS, and scored 673 runs, good for 11th in the AL.
Can this lineup return to the top? Let's have some fun looking at six crucial areas of the Yankees' offense, identifying how they can improve if all goes well -- as well as what it could mean if things go wrong.
Juan Soto
If it goes right: While Soto might primarily play right field, he's essentially replacing the plate appearances of a group of left fielders who were among the worst in the majors in 2023, hitting .220/.299/.368 compared to Soto's .275/.410/.519. In terms of estimated runs created, Soto created about 127 runs while playing all 162 games for the San Diego Padres last year; that's a 63-run improvement over last year's Yankees left fielders.
And on top of that ... Soto gets to move from pitcher-friendly Petco Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Last season, he hit much better on the road (.307 with 23 of his 35 home runs), where he created about 78 runs. Double that and we get 156 runs created -- a ridiculous 93-run improvement over that flotsam of left fielders. Possible? A 1.026 OPS from Soto doesn't seem unreasonable considering he had a 1.042 over the 2020-21 seasons. Soto isn't a dead-pull hitter, so he might not take full advantage of Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch, but let's run with this.
Result: +93 runs
If it goes wrong: The last time Soto got traded, from the Washington Nationals to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, he struggled, hitting .236/.388/.390 in 52 games for San Diego. In a sense, that presents a floor. Maybe the pressure of playing in New York or pushing for a big free agent contract affects him. Maybe Yankee Stadium hurts him rather than helps him; indeed, based on distance, Statcast says Soto would have had just 27 home runs last season playing all his games at Yankee Stadium. That could get in his head. So let's say he hits for the Yankees like he did in those first two months with the Padres. That would be about 97 total runs created -- still an improvement, but just 33 more runs as opposed to 93.
Result: +33 runs
Aaron Judge
If it goes right: Look, nobody is expecting Judge to hit 62 home runs again -- although even in a shortened 2023 season, his 37-homer pace translates to 55 over 157 games, the total he played two years ago. His overall production wasn't quite as dominant, and 2023 saw a higher run-scoring environment than 2022, but if we just extrapolate Judge's 2023 numbers over a full season of plate appearances, we get an additional 51 runs created (minus what his replacements produced, which we'll estimate at 26 runs, giving us an overall improvement of 25 runs with a healthy Judge).
Of course, a big change is that Judge will likely move down in the order, with Soto hitting in the 2-hole and Judge batting third. Early in spring training, manager Aaron Boone joked that Judge has long been lobbying to move into a better RBI slot. "That's been going on about six years now," Boone laughed.
Indeed, hitting behind Soto will at least create more runners on base for Judge. Last year, Judge hit with the bases empty nearly 60% of the time; in 2021 and 2022, it was 56%. Manny Machado, who usually batted behind Soto in San Diego, hit with the bases empty just under 52% of the time. With Soto's penchant for drawing walks -- his walk rate was in the top 1% of MLB last year -- it will also be a little harder to pitch around Judge. Last year, his unintentional walk rate with the bases empty was 19%, and with runners on it was 15.9%.
"It's going to be fun," Soto said of hitting alongside Judge. "We both know the strike zone really well. It's going to be two walks or two gappers. If I'm hitting in front of him, I'll try to be on base as much as I can so he can do his job and he can drop the hammer."
While lineup order doesn't have a major impact on a team's runs total, it makes sense that Judge will hit a few more home runs with runners on base this season and bump up that run production an additional six runs. Let's also say Judge is a little better in 2024 than he was in 2023 for another additional six runs.
Result: +37 runs
If it goes wrong: We don't want to speculate too much about injuries. Judge was healthy in 2021 and 2022, and last year's toe injury was kind of a freak accident. Still, he has already been dealing with an abdominal injury in spring training. Let's say he plays the same number of games,106, as he did in 2023 -- but, given his age, he isn't quite as productive, say at more like his 2021 level when he had .916 OPS compared to 1.019 in 2023. That's 17 runs worse over the same number of plate appearances he made last season.
Result: -17 runs
Anthony Rizzo
If it goes right: Rizzo got off to an excellent start in 2023 before suffering a concussion in a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. in late May. He attempted to play through it but hit just .172 over the next two months before he was finally shut down with lingering symptoms. Without his replacements producing much either, Yankees first basemen hit just .234/.317/.369 with 21 home runs and 62 RBIs over the regular season. Only four teams had a lower OPS at the position.
Overall, Yankees first basemen created about 72 runs. In 2022, with Rizzo playing 130 games and hitting .224/.338/.480 with 32 home runs, Yankees first basemen created 95 runs (again, in a season with a lower run environment -- the AL averaged 4.22 runs per game compared to 4.55 in 2023). Rizzo is 34, so there's no guarantee he'll reach that same level of production, but he has been tearing it up in spring training and looks great. Just giving him his 2022 numbers -- which seems reasonable -- is a big help to this lineup.
Result: +27 runs
If it goes wrong: Even leaving aside any residual concussion symptoms that could reoccur, it's just very hard for a 34-year-old hitter to be successful in today's game. Last season, only 11 34-year-olds batted at least 250 times, and of those, only Adam Duvall and Mark Canha were above-average hitters. It's possible age simply catches up to Rizzo. If he does struggle, the backup plan looks like shifting DJ LeMahieu to first base and playing Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza at third -- and both Cabrera and Peraza were awful last season. As bad as Yankees first basemen were a season ago, there's a plausible scenario where the first base/third base production is around 10 runs worse than in 2023.
Result: -10 runs
Anthony Volpe
If it goes right: The Yankees probably rushed Volpe to the majors a season ahead of schedule, and though there were clear struggles at the plate, he did win a Gold Glove and hit 21 home runs in 2023, so all in all it was a nice rookie season with 3.3 WAR. In 2024, Volpe will look to improve on his .209 batting average, .283 OBP and 167 strikeouts, numbers that he has said were way below what he expects of himself. With him starting 150 games, Yankees shortstops created about 62 runs.
Volpe spent the offseason revamping his swing, focusing on eliminating a big uppercut and getting back to a flatter swing, in the hopes of producing more contact and line drives. He struck out 27.8% of the time in the majors as opposed to 19.8% in the minors in 2022, not necessarily a terrible outcome for a then-22-year-old, but he was particularly susceptible to breaking balls away -- the bane of many rookies -- and hit just .147 against all breaking balls. His walk and chase rates were around league average, so there is a base level of plate discipline to work from. The spring training results have been inconclusive and he's yet to homer, so let's call this a work in progress.
Still, you would expect general improvement from a 23-year-old with Volpe's skill set. The various projection systems aren't all that optimistic, with ZiPS forecasting only an eight-run improvement. Even the 90th percentile PECOTA projection has Volpe hitting just .219/.301/.399.
But let's consider how Bobby Witt Jr. improved last season. He was also 22 in his rookie season in 2022 and created about 74 runs -- improving to 101 last season (20 runs better when adjusted for playing time). Volpe has better plate discipline than Witt and had a better hard-hit rate (balls hit at 95 mph or higher) as a rookie (61st percentile compared to 43rd for Witt). Witt has more raw power, so don't expect a 30-homer season from Volpe, but he's the type of player who should figure out a way to get better.
Result: +15 runs
If it goes wrong: The swing changes not only don't produce better results, they produce less power. Volpe is 10 runs worse.
Result: -10 runs
A new and improved Giancarlo Stanton
If it goes right: On the first official day that position players reported to spring training, a slimmed-down Stanton -- looking more like an NFL wide receiver than a defensive end -- met with a scrum of reporters and spoke about changing the narrative after his struggles in 2023. The 34-year-old addressed the criticism general manager Brian Cashman had directed his way and said it was a mutual decision to lose some weight, although he declined to say, exactly, how much he did weigh. He also talked about not needing to rebuild his confidence but simply realigning "a big stack of things."
Stanton, who still has four more years left on his contract and will earn $32 million in 2024, saw his OPS drop from .870 in 2021 to .759 in 2022 to .695 last season. Perhaps the decline is irreversible at this point, although maybe a leaner Stanton will be more athletic in his swing and that will translate to better production. Indeed, Boone also wants Stanton to be able to play a little outfield when needed -- while the Yankees do have five players for four spots, Boone will want to give both Soto and Judge some time at DH.
Stanton's strikeout rate was 3% higher in 2023 than it was in 2021, but that accounts for only a little of the decline. The Statcast metrics suggest he did hit into some bad luck last season, with an expected batting average of .219 and expected slugging of .462. That would put his numbers in line with what he did in 2022, giving us a 10-run improvement over 450 plate appearances. Meanwhile, the raw power remains elite and 30-homer potential still exists.
"I have to stay on the field," Stanton said at the start of training camp. "The start/stopping is not ideal. I need to play and not be on the sidelines."
We're going for a best-case scenario, but we won't go wild here, so let's add a few more runs to that 10-run upgrade.
Result: +15 runs
If it goes wrong: As with Rizzo, the difficulty in being a 34-year-old hitter also applies to Stanton -- except he's already trending in the wrong direction and was a below-average hitter in 2023. His swoon continues and he's actually 15 runs worse rather than 15 runs better -- at which point the Yankees will hope Jasson Dominguez is recovered from his Tommy John surgery and ready to play in the second half.
Result: -15 runs
The other outfielders
If it goes right: It wasn't just the left fielders who didn't hit for the Yankees in 2023. The non-Judge center fielders and right fielders -- a group that included Harrison Bader, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers and others -- also struggled. In 1,023 plate appearances, the non-Judge group created an estimated 93 runs, hitting .210 with 33 home runs.
We've already assigned some of those plate appearances to a healthy Judge, but let's distribute 450 to Alex Verdugo and 350 to Trent Grisham, both of whom the Yankees added this winter as outfield depth beyond Soto. Based on their production from last season, Verdugo would create 56 runs over 450 PAs and Grisham would create 37 over 350, for a total of 93 runs created. The guys they're replacing would have created 73 runs over 800 PAs, so that's another nice boost.
Result: +20 runs
If it goes wrong: Maybe we overestimated Verdugo and Grisham just a bit. While Verdugo has been a little better than average overall the past three seasons, he has hit better at Fenway, including a .796 OPS in 2023 compared to .692 on the road. Maybe his game doesn't translate quite so well to Yankee Stadium. Grisham has hit under .200 the past two seasons, with only a high walk rate keeping his offense playable. There's certainly a chance he's not quite as good. Instead of a 20-run improvement, maybe Verdugo and Grisham are no better than the guys they're replacing.
Result: +0 runs
Where do we end up in our best-case scenario? A whopping 207 more runs scored -- and that's without any improvement from the catchers or at third base (which was an issue last season). That takes the Yankees up to 880 runs -- one fewer than the Texas Rangers scored in leading the AL with 881 (the Atlanta Braves led the majors with 947).
And if everything goes wrong? Even with Soto, our worst-case scenario puts the Yankees at 654 runs -- 19 fewer than they scored last season.
Now, let's figure how that translates in the win-loss column. Using our trusty Pythagorean formula for determining wins, let's consider three different Yankees pitching staffs:
Excellent staff: Yankees allow 567 runs (their total in 2022, when they allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL)
Using the best-case offense's numbers, the Yankees win 115 games (!) in this scenario. However, once again, 2022 was a low-scoring season. The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners tied for the fewest runs allowed in 2023 in the AL at 659. If we use that figure for an "excellent" staff, the Yankees win 104 games.
With the worst-case offense and using that 2023 figure as a model for the staff, we're left with a run differential of minus-5 runs ... and 80 wins.
Staff level similar to 2023: Yankees allow 698 runs
The Yankees' pitching and defense, despite the injuries to Rodon and Cortes and poor performance from the departed Luis Severino, weren't terrible in 2023, as they allowed just 39 more runs than the league-leading Mariners and Twins. If the Yankees repeat that with their 880 runs scored, that gets them to 99 wins. A league-average staff in 2023 allowed 741 runs -- which puts our best-case scenario team at 95 wins.
With our bad offense, we get 76 wins based on that 2023 Yankees staff; with the league-average staff, it's 71 wins.
Bad staff: Yankees allow 765 runs
What might a bad staff for the Yankees look like? Obviously, the worst-case scenario is Cole's injury ends up being more serious than it currently appears, Rodon is again ineffective/injured and Cortes struggles or gets hurt -- though, it seems unfair to speculate on all three of those things happening. But let's do some back-of-the-napkin math to give us an estimated runs allowed figure:
Cole makes 20 starts at his 2022 level (3.50 ERA versus last season's 2.63 ERA). That would be an additional 10 runs allowed over 20 starts. We'll fill in the other 13 starts with rookie Will Warren, who has a ZiPS projection of a 4.55 ERA. That's another 21 runs compared to Cole's 2023 performance.
Rodon is the same as last season: 14 starts, 6.85 ERA
Cortes is the same as last season (4.97 ERA), but over 31 starts instead of 12 (essentially replacing the 19 starts of Domingo German, who had a 4.56 ERA). That's an additional five runs.
Marcus Stroman makes 31 starts, replacing Jhony Brito and Luis Severino, who combined for a 6.36 ERA in their combined 31 starts. Stroman had a 3.95 ERA with the Cubs last season, but let's say he's a little worse and posts a 4.35 ERA (the AL East has a lot more offense than the NL Central). That's still about a 17-run improvement over Brito and Severino.
Clarke Schmidt (31 starts) is the same.
After all that, we still need 21 starts. We'll fill those with Luke Weaver (5.33 ZiPS ERA) and Clayton Beeter (4.79 ZiPS ERA), the next two options on the 40-man roster. The Yankees' fill-in starters were pretty good last year, with a 2.63 ERA (Michael King was outstanding in nine starts). Weaver and Beeter would be about 22 runs worse.
The Yankees usually have a solid bullpen -- they led the majors last season with a 3.34 ERA, although King was a big part of that and he's now gone. Let's say the bullpen allows 5% more runs, giving the Yankees a bullpen that is still better than league average. That's an additional 26 runs.
So, add it up and even with Stroman being an upgrade, we've added 67 runs to the Yankees' 2023 figure, for a total of 765 runs allowed. That would have ranked 20th in the majors in 2023, between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox.
Plugging in the numbers for the offense, we get:
Best-case offense: 92 wins
If-it-goes-wrong offense: 68 wins
Now, the odds of the Yankees having both a worst-case offense and pitching staff at the same time are slim to none. You could argue that sort of happened to the St. Louis Cardinals last season -- they allowed nearly 200 more runs than they did in 2022 -- and they still won 71 games. I wouldn't bet on something like that happening to the Yankees in 2024 -- they've avoided worst-case scenarios for three decades -- but, you know, one of these years it will happen.
Of course, the most likely result for the 2024 Yankees is somewhere between our best-case scenario of 115 wins and out worst-case scenario of 94 losses. Split the difference and we get 92 wins, probably enough to make the postseason and get another chance at ending the World Series drought.