Shohei Ohtani is going to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Juan Soto is with the New York Yankees. With those two deals complete, we can finally move on with the rest of the offseason.
Twenty of Kiley McDaniel's top 25 free agents remain unsigned. Some big players are perhaps available in trade. A Japanese superstar has teams salivating. A reigning Cy Young and a former MVP are available -- along with quite possibly the best reliever in baseball.
In case you were paying attention to only Ohtani and Soto, let's recalibrate where we're at and check in on a few of the biggest names teams are now chasing, along with which clubs have the best chance of signing them.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (free agent, 25 years old)
Best bets: New York Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
At the start of the offseason, predictions for Yamamoto -- who has won the Sawamura Award as the best pitcher in Japan the past three seasons -- estimated a contract just north of a $200 million deal, or $30 million or so per season. Now that number appears to be inching closer to $300 million and maybe beyond. Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher who has ever received a $300 million deal, signing a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees in 2020 (Cole, by the way, has an opt-out after the 2024 season). The only other pitcher to top even $220 million is Stephen Strasburg, who signed a $245 million deal with the Nationals after he pitched them to the World Series title in 2019 (and then barely pitched again).
With the Mets and Yankees likely in a bidding war for Yamamoto's services, it seems assured he will pass Strasburg and perhaps end up close to Cole. Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns flew to Japan before the winter meetings to meet with Yamamoto. "I think it demonstrates Steve's commitment to do everything he possibly can to bring players to New York," Stearns said last week. The Yankees are reportedly meeting with Yamamoto this week in Los Angeles. Brian Cashman has made it clear how much he loves Yamamoto, and the Yankees are certainly looking to add rotation help after trading four starting pitchers to acquire Soto.
Don't discount the Dodgers here -- even after their Ohtani signing. Ohtani's deal reportedly includes a high percentage of deferred money, which lowers the annual value of his salary as applied to the competitive-balance tax, perhaps in the $40-50 million range. That gives L.A. more financial flexibility to pursue Yamamoto without having to pay a higher tax rate. Of note: Last year was just the second full season since 2006 that the Dodgers didn't have at least one starter with 4.0 WAR. Also of note: Yamamoto grew up a Dodgers fan -- but Cohen will not be outbid.
Prediction: Mets
Cody Bellinger, OF/1B (free agent, 28 years old)
Best bets: Giants, Blue Jays, Cubs
Bellinger is one of the more difficult free agents to project in recent memory. He won the MVP in 2019 when he hit .305 with 47 home runs -- and he was just 23 years old. Then he injured his right shoulder during the 2020 postseason, which might have contributed to poor seasons in 2021 and 2022. After the Dodgers non-tendered him last winter, he had an excellent rebound season with the Cubs, hitting .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs. He put up those numbers, however, despite less-than-impressive Statcast metrics -- his hard-hit rate and exit velocity were well below the MLB average. His improved contact rate helped, but forecasting his future power production is guesswork. In other words: There's a lot to unpack here.
But based on 2023 results, his age and his positional versatility, he's the best position player available. We know the Blue Jays went hard after Ohtani and were at least in on Soto, looking to add a left-handed bat to an offense that was mediocre in 2023 (eighth in the AL in runs and 27th in the majors in home runs from left-handed hitters). Were they willing to go big only for a truly elite hitter such as Ohtani or Soto? There's a perception that the Ohtani pursuit might have been an isolated, ownership-driven bid. Indeed, the Jays have signed just two $100 million free agents in franchise history and getting Bellinger would require them to top the $125 million they gave George Springer. Toronto could eventually decide Bellinger is too risky for that kind of outlay.
If that becomes the case, it could create an opportunity for the Giants to finally land the type of high-priced free agent they have been chasing for two offseasons. They pursued Ohtani. They pursued Aaron Judge last year. Their payroll sits at about $148 million and they've been seeking a franchise-type player for years (also backing out of the Carlos Correa deal last offseason). Bellinger isn't that player, but the Giants need offense and their center fielders were 24th in the majors in OPS and 28th in RBIs last season. The Giants' signings of outfielders Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto didn't go so well in 2023; do they want to go down that route again with Bellinger? Maybe they're better off just going all-in on Yamamoto or another starting pitcher.
But if not the Blue Jays or Giants, where does Bellinger land? The Yankees' trades for Soto and Alex Verdugo certainly hurt Bellinger's potential market. The Mariners need a middle-of-the-order bat and they cut payroll with the Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic trades, but the most Jerry Dipoto has given a free agent hitter is ... drum roll ... $7 million for AJ Pollock. Maybe Bellinger ends up going back to the Cubs, although they have a gifted rookie defender for center field in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Prediction: Giants
Blake Snell, LHP (free agent, 31 years old)/Jordan Montgomery, LHP (free agent, 31 years old)
Best bets: Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
Snell lines up behind Yamamoto in the pecking order of starting pitchers -- he's six years older and while he pitched 180 innings in 2023 in capturing his second Cy Young Award, he threw just 128 innings each of the previous two seasons. As difficult as he was to hit last season -- he held batters to a .181/.293/.286 line -- he walked 5.0 per nine. He also pitched more than six innings just three times. Add it all up and, like Bellinger, he's a risky player to bet on, especially at Aaron Nola money (seven years, $172 million).
Snell seems to have expressed a strong desire to pitch for his hometown Mariners this offseason, showing up at a Seahawks game to raise the 12th man flag before a game and also at a University of Washington football game. Alas, the Mariners are suddenly crying poor and I suspect the losers of the Yamamoto sweepstakes will turn to Snell as a backup option.
As for Montgomery, Texas was the heavy favorite to re-sign him at the start of the offseason, but as his rumored price continues to escalate -- potentially into the area of $140 million -- there have been reports the Rangers have backed off, perhaps concerned about the status of their local TV contract with Diamond Sports Group. Montgomery offers a degree of durability compared with Snell -- three straight seasons of 30 starts -- but he doesn't have the same explosive strikeout stuff. Giving him that kind of money also feels like a potential overreaction to his two good playoff starts with the Rangers (scoreless outings against the Rays and Astros) while ignoring his three other playoff starts (23 hits and 11 runs in 15⅓ innings). Don't rule out a return engagement with the Cardinals either, even though St. Louis has already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn as free agents.
Snell prediction: Giants
Montgomery prediction: Yankees
Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox (28 years old)/Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Rays (30 years old)
Best bets: Dodgers, Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Rangers
With the Brewers apparently no longer considering trading their ace Corbin Burnes, Cease and Glasnow are the two best pitchers likely to be dealt. Cease would require more talent back: He's under team control for two more seasons as opposed to one for Glasnow, and will make a much lower salary in 2024, an estimated $8.8 million in arbitration versus $25 million for Glasnow. Both have powerful arms with strikeout stuff and a ceiling as among the best righty starters in the game. Cease reached that in 2022 when he finished second in the Cy Young voting. Glasnow has done it only in short bursts because of injuries; his 120 innings in 2023, coming off Tommy John surgery, were a career high, but he averaged 12.2 strikeouts per nine and has better control than Cease.
I listed the teams that have some of MLB's better farm systems above, but you can include almost any team for Cease. If the Dodgers don't sign Yamamoto, a trade for Cease makes sense -- and they are deep in pitching prospects close to the majors or already there that could be offered to the White Sox. I'd love to see the Reds or Orioles jump in as both need a top-of-the-rotation starter and they have two of the best farm systems in the sport.
Glasnow to the Phillies feels like a Dave Dombrowski move waiting to happen, although the Rays would likely want Mick Abel or Andrew Painter, one of the team's two top pitching prospects. If the Rangers have indeed backed off Montgomery, I could see them in this mix as well. No, don't ask about Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford.
Cease prediction: Dodgers
Glasnow prediction: Phillies
3B Matt Chapman (free agent, 31 years old in April)
Best bets: Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Detroit Tigers
Chapman, like Bellinger, comes with huge risk in my book, even though he has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons. On the positive side, he's still a plus defender at third (he just won his fourth Gold Glove) and delivers elite exit velocity numbers: 100th percentile in hard-hit rate and 98th percentile in average exit velocity. Teams love that kind of contact. On the other hand, after hitting .384 in April he hit just .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. Oh, he's on the wrong side of 30 and struck out over 28% of the time. Red flags all over the place.
I'm having trouble finding a home for Chapman, however, at least at a $100 million price tag. The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suarez to fill their hole at third base. The Mets look like they'll give Brett Baty another shot at third. The Angels and White Sox are probably stuck with Anthony Rendon and Yoan Moncada. The Tigers have Colt Keith ready, although they could slide him to second and play Chapman at third (although that would block Jace Jung at second). Maybe the Cubs? That would be some defensive infield with Chapman, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. In the end, the Blue Jays bringing him back seems the most likely scenario.
Prediction: Blue Jays
LHP Josh Hader (free agent, 30 years old in April)
Best bets: Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, San Diego Padres
Hader no doubt is looking for an Edwin Diaz contract, which means $100 million. I'd be reluctant to give it to him for a variety of reasons, even though he had 1.23 ERA with the Brewers in 2021 and 1.28 with the Padres in 2023. First: his stated desire -- refusal? -- to pitch more than three outs. Go back to late September, when the Padres were still clinging to playoff hopes in the wild-card race. They had a one-run lead in the eighth, the Giants had loaded the bases with two outs against a tiring Robert Suarez and sent up a left-handed pinch-hitter. Hader remained in the bullpen and Michael Conforto delivered a two-run, game-winning single. So Hader can't go four outs, he hasn't pitched 60 innings in any of the past three seasons, and he's coming off a career-low strikeout rate and career-high walk rate.
On the other hand, he's still one of the game's elite closers. The Orioles looked like a possible fit with Felix Bautista out with Tommy John surgery but they signed Craig Kimbrel. The Rangers won the World Series despite their lack of bullpen depth (24th in the majors in ERA) while the Phillies lost to the Diamondbacks thanks to Kimbrel's two losses. But how about the Cubs? Adbert Alzolay did a solid job late in the season, but the Cubs' pen is still thin and signing Hader pushes Alzolay and Julian Merryweather into the setup roles.
Prediction: Cubs
The wild card: Roki Sasaki, RHP (22 years old)
Best bets: Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Padres, Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox (really, anybody)
Sasaki, the young Japanese phenom who just turned 22 and throws 100 mph, has reportedly asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to post him. His season with the Marines ended in July because of an oblique strain, but he dominated up to then: 91 IP, 51 H, 1 HR, 17 BB, 135 SO, 1.78 ERA. Whoa. Compared with Yamamoto, he throws harder, is taller (6-foot-2 while Yamamoto is an undersized 5-foot-10) and is younger.
Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until Dec. 15 to post players, but it would be unusual for a team to post a player before he's 25, as MLB rules limit the type of contract a player can sign to a minor league contract if he's not at least 25 (and the signing bonus can come from only the team's international bonus pool and many teams will have already committed that money when the signing period starts Jan. 15). Ohtani took that route and played at the rookie minimum in 2018, so it's not unprecedented, but the Marines are not expected to post Sasaki. But if they do ... well, this offseason will take another wild turn because any team could afford Sasaki.