Shohei Ohtani bears myriad gifts for the team that he chooses -- through his offensive production, his pitching (whenever he returns), the boost in attendance and television ratings, heightened interest from sponsors. On top of all of that, he seems to inject tangible impact on the hitters who bat around him in the lineup.
Mike Trout was already a slam-dunk Hall of Famer and in the conversation as one of the greatest players of all time. But in recent seasons, as ESPN stats guru Paul Hembekides notes, Trout seems to have benefited from having Ohtani batting behind him in the lineup. In his past 235 games when Ohtani was behind him in the lineup, Trout generated a slash line of .291/.394/.644, with 85 homers -- a rate that translates into a 58-homer pace over 162 games.
When Ohtani has hit behind him, forcing opposing pitchers and catchers to be more aggressive with Trout, he saw a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone, a lower percentage of noncompetitive pitches and a lower percentage of his at-bats reached a three-ball count. When Ohtani batted behind him, Trout swung at a higher percentage of pitches, likely because he had better pitches to hit.
This must all be nice to dream about if you are Mookie Betts, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Freddie Freeman or any of the other hitters who would get to share a lineup with Ohtani in 2024 and beyond, whenever he picks a team.
It might be an even better exercise if you are Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider or any of the others working for a team that's been in conversation with Ohtani; putting together an offensive lineup with Ohtani near the top would be a pure delight.
Let's play out some of those dreams, and project a top of the order for the teams who've considered Ohtani.
The favorites
Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Betts
2. Ohtani
3. Freeman
When Trout was out of the lineup, Ohtani seemed to be most comfortable hitting in the No. 2 spot with the Angels, and while Freeman had great success in that spot in 2023, he also has demonstrated he's unaffected by lineup placement. In 2022, Roberts asked Betts, Freeman and then-Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner how they'd like to be arranged, and Freeman was completely comfortable hitting third. Which makes sense, because Freeman seems to hit under any circumstance -- versus lefties, righties, breaking ball pitchers, hard throwers. He's so good that he'll punish pitchers who work around Ohtani. It might be Betts who benefits from having Ohtani, a major power threat, batting behind him, and Freeman would often go to the plate with two guys on base, with the pitcher backed into a corner.
The one downside to batting Ohtani and Freeman back-to-back, of course, is that it would create a natural lane for opposing managers to summon lefties late in the game, starting with Betts, who historically has not fared as well against lefties. There might be a temptation to slide the right-handed hitting Will Smith between Ohtani and Freeman. But presumably, Roberts might stack Betts, Ohtani and Freeman at the top on Opening Day -- and he might never touch them.
Los Angeles Angels
1. Somebody really lucky
2. Trout
3. Ohtani
Ron Washington, the Angels' new manager, is an independent thinker, willing to take chances, which is why he was such a good third-base coach. But he wouldn't mess with success -- he'd make damn sure that Trout and Ohtani batted in the first inning, probably back-to-back. Trout has demonstrated he is wholly capable of taking advantage of the lineup protection that Ohtani provides.
Toronto Blue Jays
1. Guerrero Jr.
2. Ohtani
3. Bichette
It's hard to project a Jays lineup at the moment because the front office still has to fill multiple holes -- at third base, in center field and maybe at DH. And it might seem strange to think of Guerrero Jr. as a leadoff hitter.
But coming off a ragged 2023 season in which his OPS dipped under .800, Guerrero Jr. might benefit more than anyone to get the sort of treatment that Trout got when hitting in front of Ohtani -- more pitches in the strike zone, more stuff to hit. Additionally, Guerrero Jr. is a major candidate for hitting into double plays -- he led the majors two seasons ago, and has grounded into 69 double plays over the past three seasons -- and if he hit leadoff, you'd naturally reduce that possibility.
Bichette would seem to be a more natural candidate to hit in front of Ohtani, but no matter where Bichette hits, he's going have the same aggressive approach; he's always going to be on the attack. Maybe Bichette's production would be enhanced by protection from the front, with Guerrero Jr. and Ohtani batting in front of him.
Chicago Cubs
1. The cavalry
2. Ohtani
3. ... the cavalry
Reportedly, the Cubs are among the teams that have had Ohtani's attention. If he headed to Wrigley, Ohtani would hit second -- other than that, not much is certain. There would probably be a parade of players given the opportunity to bat leadoff, and similarly, a whole bunch of players rotating through the No. 3 spot -- maybe Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson, among others. Ohtani would give the Cubs the kind of presence that Cody Bellinger gave them in 2023. And last year, the Cubs had 10th-lowest team hard-hit rate, according to Sarah Langs, and Ohtani would help to rectify that -- he had the fifth-highest hard-hit rate (among all hitters with a minimum of 350 batted balls). But there have been major doubts among some club employees that Ohtani would choose Chicago's weather and Wrigley's wind over warmer climate conditions.
The longer shots
Texas Rangers
1. Marcus Semien
2. Ohtani
3. Seager
4. Adolis Garcia
5. Evan Carter
The lineup fielded by the defending champions would be absurdly deep, absurdly great, and Seager, like Freeman and Bichette, would seem to be a perfect candidate to bat behind Ohtani. No matter where he hits, he'll always have the same approach and be just as dangerous. With apologies to Alex Bregman, the addition of Ohtani might make the Rangers favorites to win the American League West next year.
One of the most impressive home runs in 2023 was an Ohtani shot in Texas on June 14. As Langs noted, Ohtani's home run had a 116.1 mph exit velocity -- and it went to the opposite field. It was the hardest-hit opposite-field homer by a lefty tracked by Statcast, by a lot. The prior such mark was 113.0 mph by Joey Gallo on Sept. 25, 2017. Ohtani has 10 home runs with at least a 116 mph exit velocity since the start of 2021, second most in MLB in that span, behind only Giancarlo Stanton, with 13. Nobody else has more than five.
New York Yankees
1. Aaron Judge
2. Ohtani
3. Whomever
Per Hembo, Yankee Stadium is the second-most left-handed friendly ballpark in the majors to homer in (behind only the Great American Ballpark) ... but as any frustrated Yankees fan knows, the Yankees have not had a left-handed hitter with a 40-HR season since Curtis Granderson in 2012. In 2023, the Yankees ranked 29th in plate appearances from left-handed hitters (1,650). Ohtani would change all of that, and it's fun to think about the angst opposing pitchers would feel if they had to deal with Judge and Ohtani at the start of every game. But at this point, it seems highly unlikely. Sources say the Yankees have had almost no contact with Ohtani since the GM meetings.
Boston Red Sox
1. Jarren Duran
2. Rafael Devers
3. Ohtani
4. Triston Casas
This also from Hembo: Statcast numbers show that Fenway Park is the most left-handed hitter friendly ballpark in the majors. And the Boston lineage of great lefties speaks for itself: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs, David Ortiz, Rafael Devers, etc.
Ohtani at No. 3 in this lineup could do damage -- but it seems unwise to linger with how Ohtani might fit in with this group, because the Red Sox have reportedly been out of the Ohtani conversation for weeks.