The MLB playoffs are over, and it's time to move our focus to the long offseason of moves teams will make with positioning for the 2024 playoffs in mind. But before we totally turn the page, let's look back at the lessons that can be learned from the 2023 playoffs by covering 10 questions that are still lingering, with many of them also looking forward to what teams will do this winter.
Does the playoff format need to change?
This was the most asked question throughout the playoffs because so many favorites lost early in October. Despite all of the discourse about what happened this postseason, my answer is no -- and not because this is a perfect format or some appeal to tradition.
The question really boils down to what you want out of a postseason. For example, European soccer hands out championships that put an emphasis on winning the regular-season title, then has playoffs that are a separate competition with different hardware and glory, seeded based on the regular season. That gives value to performance over the long regular season with its big sample size that suggests a real signal to the best team while also keeping the excitement, trophy and added revenue of a tournament-style postseason.
Maybe you hear that solution and give a knee-jerk no to acknowledging regular-season success along with the postseason champion. Fine. But what do you want?
It can't be that all the top seeds sweep, because then the playoffs serve no purpose. It can't be that it's all upsets because then people argue, like they did this year, that the playoffs need to only include the very best teams. The answer is somewhere in the middle, but how do you calibrate that: to whose tastes? And how do you make up for the lost revenue of fewer playoff games?
Here's one way to put this in perspective. An academic paper calculated how often the better-on-paper team won a playoff series in the NBA (it's 80%) and then figured out how long playoff series would need to be in other major sports to match that figure:
NFL: 11-game series
NHL: 51-game series
MLB: 75-game series
Since 75-game playoff series to determine who truly deserves to move on aren't happening anytime soon, baseball's best hope comes from finding a way to both acknowledge the best teams over 162 games and maximize the enjoyment of the drama of a postseason tournament. Let's keep this in mind as we decide if a handful of games invalidates a commanding regular-season performance.
Is there something the Braves need to fix, or was that just a tough luck offseason?
With straight National League Division Series exits coming on the heels of dominant regular seasons, the Braves are the new face of MLB's playoff format conundrum. Atlanta had the best offense the sport has seen since the 1931 Yankees and were heavy favorites coming into the postseason. Everyone knew there was a weakness (starting pitching depth) that could leave the Braves short of their ultimate goal, but it was that historic offense that floundered at the worst possible time, (.186/.255/.264 in the playoffs as a team) en route to being beat by the Phillies in four games.
Obviously, that kind of slump doesn't mean the offense wasn't actually good or needs to be retooled. Plus, most of the core players (remember, I have this core ranked as the best in baseball two years in a row) are already locked up. Due in part to this fact, FanGraphs' depth charts have the Braves as the best team in the NL by 14 games right now. Other teams will make a lot of moves this offseason, and the Braves won't make many big ones (left field, starting pitching depth) so that number will shrink, but I think they'll hold another lead on paper going into 2024 like they did entering October this year.
The Orioles need more pitching. How will they do it?
The O's had the second-best record in baseball before being swept out of the playoffs in three games by the eventual champion Rangers. Baltimore won the American League East at least one year ahead of schedule, maybe a few, while running the third-lowest payroll in baseball with a very young core and some good luck, per their Pythagorean projected record.
Baltimore could add over $100 million in 2024 season salaries during free agency and still have the fourth-highest payroll in the division -- so there is a lot of room to grow the payroll. Still, I'd expect GM Mike Elias to focus on incremental improvements with shorter-term contracts to fill holes in the short-to-medium term. This will allow them to maintain flexibility and clear routes for young players to matriculate to the big-league team.
Luckily, the biggest need to address this winter is pitching, and that's the strength of this free agent class. I have 13 starting pitchers projected to get multiyear deals with $10 million-plus AAV and the Orioles should sign at least two, along with at least two of the 10 relievers I think will get $10 million-plus guaranteed.
Are the Dodgers about to spend their way out of a disappointing postseason?
There have long been rumors that Shohei Ohtani wants to land with the Dodgers. The timing seems right as the Dodgers are coming off of a season in which they won 100 games after cutting $30 million from their 2022 budget and relying more on young players. Adding Ohtani to put another potent bat in the lineup and landing some depth to help their young and/or injured pitching staff would make the Dodgers one of the teams to beat in the NL.
Can the Rangers do this again?
Oh, right, the new champs. They have a strong lineup and while their starting pitching looks a bit old, they could be adding arguably the best pitcher on Earth in Jacob deGrom to their rotation around the middle of the 2024 season. There's room to add another piece to the rotation, but the bullpen is the real issue that needs addressing. Like Baltimore, I think Texas should add at least two of the top 10 relievers in free agency and may also need to make a trade and/or be aggressive with minor league deals or low-cost gambles to create more chances to find strong late-inning options.
Can the D-backs and Phillies count on playoff magic again?
The Phillies are a solid club that will have almost every key player returning with one major exception: Aaron Nola. If Nola returns, I see no reason why the playoff vibes should be any different in Philly. If the Phillies don't bring him back, they have a real hole to fill without many options on his level via free agency -- and hearing "Game 2 starter: Ranger Suarez" would make me pause.
Arizona went 84-78 with a -15 run differential yet made a magical run to the World Series. The D-backs are a young team on the come-up; this wasn't a one-time fluke that will be followed by them crashing back to Earth next year. There will be some natural improvement as their core matures, but the Snakes could use a little more corner thump. Free agent options like Jung-Hoo Lee, Michael Conforto, Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez fit that bill for right field and DH spots.
Are the Astros on the downside of this incredible run?
Probably not, but we need to prepare ourselves for that eventuality. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez are free agents after 2025, so their salaries will rise the next two years and extensions will need to be addressed. Alex Bregman's deal is up after 2024. Justin Verlander will be 41 next season and Jose Altuve will be 34.
Seattle and Texas are real playoff contenders in Houston's division, and the AL East will be at least four-deep with contenders. There's a scenario where the Astros take a real step down from heavyweight to merely a contender, but 2025, not 2024, will be that year.
Are the Brewers looking at the final run of this core? Do they push some chips in or reload?
After Monday's shocking development, Craig Counsell will be managing in Chicago -- and not Milwaukee -- next season. Brandon Woodruff is out for all of 2024 with shoulder surgery and then he'll hit free agency after the season. Other players set to hit free agency after 2024: Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Adrian Houser. Devin Williams will hit free agency after 2025.
There is still some solid young talent on the roster -- and some of the infrastructure that helped create this core remains in place -- but Milwaukee doesn't really pay retail prices for players after their peak seasons, so you have to assume most of those players will be leaving Milwaukee. If a great offer comes along and/or they hit midseason out of playoff contention, could the Brewers pull the ripcord and try to set up their next core, supplementing William Contreras, Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio?
Was the Marlins' playoff appearance a fluke? Will the new head of baseball ops deliver a 2024 playoff berth?
Arizona's playoff run came out of nowhere, but Miami's 84-win season was even more improbable with an all-time worst -57 run differential for a playoff team. Owner Bruce Sherman just tapped former Rays exec Peter Bendix as the new head of baseball ops. Now Bendix will be tasked with competing in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, with a bottom-third payroll. There's a solid pitching staff in place, but Sandy Alcantara's Tommy John surgery pours cold water on the 2024 output you can expect from that group.
The general approach from other Rays execs once they get to a new team has been a slower, cautious, ground-up, sustainable approach, particularly with a lower payroll, so I wouldn't expect another playoff run in 2024. The lineup needs real help, but that likely won't be solved with free agent spending. Miami should be clearly better than Washington next season but may be fourth in the division for a few more years with the Mets, Braves and Phillies looking like the class of the NL East for years to come.
We just saw that any playoff team can make the World Series if they get in the tournament. Which non-playoff team will make for the most intriguing offseason?
This is a hefty list of teams, and how it plays out is what I'm most excited to watch this winter as a team-building dork. Let's start with the three biggest payrolls from 2023 as I did at length in September. The Yankees are in the middle of some soul-searching about how they put together their big-league team and will have lots of eyes on their every move. The Mets have landed their dream head of baseball ops in David Stearns but last we saw them, they were trading future Hall of Famers at the deadline. Stearns' background is much more in line with that sort of team building than last winter's spend-a-palooza, so it's hard to see a quick fix via free agency. The Padres were the unluckiest team in decades and ran a huge payroll with most of their chips pushed into the middle. Do they tread water with slight changes with this same basic group, or make bolder moves?
Those three will get most of the attention, but the Cardinals' disastrous 2023 has created some real consternation with the Best Fans in Baseball. The Blue Jays and Cubs both have fan bases ready for a jump into the top tier of contending, but that tier only has so much space.