While the lights are bright for everyone on baseball's biggest stage this October, some players have a little extra at stake, with their free agency set to begin once the 2023 MLB playoffs end. They have (or at least had) a golden opportunity to improve their stock in the postseason, when a big performance can mean a lot of money.
While the upcoming free agent class isn't legendary -- outside of Shohei Ohtani -- there is a nice collection of players projected to get nine-figure deals, and there's solid depth, with a dozen or so players who should land at least $50 million in guaranteed contracts. Many of them made the postseason, and since only one -- Baltimore Orioles RHP Jack Flaherty -- is on a team that received a first-round bye, the wild-card round featured a host of higher-tier pending free agents. Unfortunately, a few of them have already been eliminated, losing what could've been a big opportunity.
Here's where some of the biggest names stand after four wild-card sweeps and the start of the division series looming Saturday.
Three top pitchers improving their stock
Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Opening Day Age: 30
Nola offers consistency and durability. He has posted 180-plus innings in every full season since 2018, while his xFIP has never been above 3.82 in those seasons. The issue is his actual ERA has been over 4.00 twice, including this season, as Nola has consistently underperformed his ERA estimators for four years. He's also 30 years old and has always had just average fastball velocity.
Working in his favor is the fact that the demand for innings, along with an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio and durability is essentially limitless around the league; a team with a POV on Nola's ERA vs. estimators gap could see real value in a multi-year deal. In his first postseason start of 2023, Nola threw seven scoreless innings to help seal the Phillies' sweep of the Marlins on Wednesday night.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins
2024 Opening Day Age: 34
Gray will be 34 next month, he's only 5-foot-10, and, like Nola, his fastball velocity is just average -- so showing what he can do this month is imperative to his stock. On the bright side, Gray's fastball plays up to above average due to its shape, he has made at least 22 starts in every full season that he began in the big leagues and his career ERA and ERA estimators are in the mid-3s. Due to his age, size, and bulk innings, he won't get as many years as Nola but may perform just as well for the next few seasons.
Gray posted five scoreless innings with six strikeouts in the Twins' series-clinching win, seizing his first opportunity this postseason.
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Texas Rangers
2024 Opening Day Age: 31
Montgomery is perceived as a softer-tossing lefty, a crafty veteran, but his average fastball velocity this season (93.4) is harder than both Nola (92.9) and Gray (92.8). That said, it plays below the righties' fastballs in whiffs due to being more of a sinker.
He has plus command of a three-pitch mix, with his low-80s curveball his best pitch. His strikeout rate is the lowest of this bunch but his command may be the best, and he's posted more than 150 innings each of the last three seasons, punctuated by seven innings of shutout ball to open the playoffs.
Two veterans with a chance to make some money
Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Opening Day Age: 32
He isn't in the Phillies' playoff rotation right now, but Lorenzen has a chance as a later-blooming starter to follow in the footsteps of Zach Eflin last fall and winter. Eflin had a strong 2022 regular season as a starter, then made 10 playoff relief appearances including four in the World Series. He landed a three-year, $40 million deal with the Rays and was one of the best starters in baseball this year. So far, Lorenzen's script is playing out similarly, and a deep October run could be a solid showcase to a nice contract this winter.
Tommy Pham, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Opening Day Age: 36
Pham is a trusted veteran who had a nice season -- 110 wRC+, 16 homers, 22 stolen bases, 1.8 fWAR -- but actually could've been much better. His expected wOBA (how well he would've batted with neutral luck) of .361 was his best in five years, while his actual wOBA was .332. That was the seventh-most unlucky gap in baseball among hitters who put at least 300 balls in play. Teams have more advanced figures that can take into account defensive positioning and the batter's speed, but they're based on the same thing: what should happen based on the location, exit velo, and loft of batted balls. There's some value one layer beneath Pham's surface stats, and a loud postseason (career postseason wOBA: .373) could help goose that next contract to match his luck-neutral stats.
Three players who missed their chance
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Opening Day Age: 30
Chapman is going head-to-head with Cody Bellinger to be the best pure position player (i.e., excepting Shohei Ohtani) among this winter's free agents; both seem likely to get low nine figures. Chapman will turn 31 next April, which is past the standard peak years, but offers incredible consistency and durability.
Chapman has averaged 4.2 WAR per 550 plate appearances over his career and for each individual season has posted above average performances at the plate, on the bases, and in the field, while also playing at least 140 games in every season since his rookie year, excepting the pandemic-affected 2020 season.
Jordan Hicks, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Opening Day Age: 27
Hicks is a young fireballer whose fastball averages 100.3 mph. His age, margin for error created by that arm speed, and his career year in 2023 has executives projecting that Hicks will land a four-year deal this winter, likely for an AAV of at least $10 million.
He throws a fastball/sinker 75% of the time but keeps hitters honest with an easy plus slider he just needs to start or finish in the strike zone for it to be effective.
Jorge Soler, LF, Miami Marlins
2024 Opening Day Age: 32
Soler has the chance to opt out of the remaining year on his deal at $13 million and could've helped his outlook with another legendary October like he delivered for the Braves in 2021. Soler went 1-for-8 in the Marlins' wild-card loss, but has hit 71% above league average for his career in the postseason, across 87 career plate appearances.
Other players of note still in action
Infielders
Mitch Garver, C, Texas Rangers
Donovan Solano, 2B, Minnesota Twins
* Philadelphia Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins could also fit in this group, but is still recovering from a torn ACL
Outfielders
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael A. Taylor, CF, Minnesota Twins
Travis Jankowski, CF, Texas Rangers
Starters
Kenta Maeda, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Relievers
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Will Smith, LHP, Texas Rangers
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Texas Rangers
Chris Stratton, RHP, Texas Rangers
Emilio Pagan, RHP, Minnesota Twins