Every playoff series develops its own personality, with subtle weaknesses suddenly exploited, mistakes magnified and hot-swinging hitters becoming indelible playoff heroes over just a few plate appearances. The excitement of the new wild-card format means that four teams will be fighting for their postseason lives today, and there are plenty of specific elements we'll be watching as the series are decided.
Here are the 10 biggest matchups of the wild-card round.
Phillies-Marlins
The Phillies vs. the pressure
Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies kind of snuck up on everybody in the National League playoffs, repeatedly winning on the road. They took the wild-card series in St. Louis, jumped on the Braves in Atlanta and split the first two games of the NLCS in San Diego before wiping out the Padres in Philadelphia. Bryce Harper got very hot, the Phillies all played loose, and in the end, they came within a couple victories of winning the World Series despite mustering just 87 wins in the regular season.
Expectations are quite different this year, because you could make a case that the Phillies should be favorites to win the World Series, with Harper now seemingly fully healthy and ace Zack Wheeler well-rested after starting just 28 innings in September. But for the Phillies, the role of heavies could feel significantly different to last year -- not that it looked to be the case in their Game 1 win.
The Marlins vs. their pitching puzzle
Like the Phillies last year, it's actually their opponent, the Miami Marlins, who are regarded as the biggest underdog of the playoffs. Miami will be expected to lose, which means playing without pressure -- just as the Phillies did in the early rounds last season. Still, there are myriad reasons that the Marlins are effectively seen as the No. 12 seed out of 12 this postseason:
They enter October baseball as one of the weakest offenses in the majors, ranking 26th among 30 teams in runs scored.
Their final steps to make the postseason have been a jumble of comebacks and rain and delays and postponements and overnight travel. Manager Skip Schumaker probably got more airtime this week for chastising a groundskeeper -- in Citi Field, after midnight -- than any move he made, in a moment when he was fighting for his players.
The Marlins' bracket is akin to a college basketball team drawing Duke, Kentucky and the Lew Alcindor UCLA team in their region. If the Marlins somehow get through the Phillies -- and for the record, Miami actually beat Philly in seven of 13 games during the regular season -- they would then have to face the Braves, whose home run production was almost double that of the Marlins during the season. And then perhaps the Dodgers or Brewers after that.
But the Marlins' biggest challenge at this moment is scraping together enough pitching, because of the loss of ace Sandy Alcantara and worsened by that late-season scramble. In Game 1, Miami started Jesus Luzardo, the hard-throwing lefty (average fastball velocity 96.7, tied for third-best in the majors behind only Alcantara and Spencer Strider), against a Philly lineup loaded with left-handed hitters like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Luzardo allowed three runs and struck out five -- including Schwarber and Harper -- in four innings.
Braxton Garrett will start Game 2, and Johnny Cueto could be the Game 3 starter. No matter how they line up, Schumaker will have to be aggressive with his bullpen, as he has been in recent weeks. The Marlins have won 10 of their past 15 games to end the regular season, and they were able to keep it close in Game 1.
Luis Arraez vs. a big moment
Arraez has just seven plate appearances since Sept. 18, after he sprained his ankle during infield drills. But he will play a role for the Marlins, and let's face it, Arraez is one of those guys who doesn't need much of a warmup -- with his incredible hand-eye coordination, he will probably be dominating old-timers' games years from now. The guy who had the highest batting average in the majors this season is going to put the ball in play somehow, some way -- and inevitably, he'll come to the plate against the Phillies with runners on base and contact needed. Will he dump a dork-shot into left field? Scoop a double down the right-field line? Roll a double-play grounder to second base? He went 1-for-4 on Tuesday, his only hit coming against the hard-throwing Jose Alvarado, who allowed only one hit over his last five innings of the regular season, with no walks and nine strikeouts (he also got a big strikeout of Yuli Gurriel with runners on in the seventh inning) -- and it should be noted that Arraez had a .308 on-base percentage in his last 45 games of the regular season.
Rays-Rangers
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy vs. his short-handed staff
The resiliency that the Texas Rangers showed down the stretch -- especially after getting wrecked by the Astros in an early-September home series, then losing their AL West lead on the final day of the season -- should concern other teams. Just ask the Tampa Bay Rays, who saw in their Game 1 loss that there would be no hangover. Texas' everyday lineup is packed with very serious professionals who string together competitive at-bats.
But the team's pitching deficit is real, following injuries to everyone from Jacob deGrom to Jon Gray to Max Scherzer. For the last quarter of the season, in all games after Aug. 15, the Rangers ranked 24th among 30 teams in ERA at 5.14. Nathan Eovaldi had a 9.30 ERA in his past six starts, and like other Texas pitchers, he had a problem giving up home runs.
However, Bochy has made a postseason of stitching together pitching with pieces and parts, putting compromised pitchers in the best position for success -- and leaning into anyone who's throwing well. Jordan Montgomery has been that guy for Rangers, posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts following a trade to Texas. That continued in Game 1, with a seven-inning, no-run showing -- presumably the first of many chances for Montgomery to round out his résumé as he heads into free agency this fall. In Game 2, Bochy will see what he can get out of Eovaldi; Scherzer has been trying to work his way back, but all indications are he will not pitch in this series.
The Rays' pitching vs. Corey Seager
Because of his prolific years with the Dodgers, the Rangers' shortstop has played in 61 postseason games, and he has shown time and again that he will swing -- aggressively -- and is wholly capable of doing big damage. In 2020, Seager was the MVP of the NLCS and dominated the World Series, as well, batting .347 with seven homers in those rounds.
In the 2020 World Series against the Rays, Tampa pitchers worked around him constantly, issuing six walks in six games. Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay's Game 1 starter, has demonstrated high respect for Seager in the past, walking him four times in nine plate appearances; Seager went 2-for-4 with another walk on Tuesday. And he could have another big day against Game 2 starter Zach Eflin -- the Texas slugger is 3-for-7 with a homer and a double against Eflin. Rays manager Kevin Cash could attack Seager with the lefties in his bullpen, Jake Diekman and Colin Poche. But when Seager is swinging well, the best plan could turn out to be working around him and going after whoever is filling the No. 3 spot in the Texas lineup (Robbie Grossman on Tuesday, who went 0-for-4).
Something of note on Seager: He was hit by a pitch on the right wrist last week and finished the regular season with four singles and no extra-base hits in 19 at-bats.
The very right-handed Tampa Bay lineup vs. the need for LH power
The Rays have been one of the pioneers of aggressively deploying platoon advantages, but as the playoffs begin, their roster has become unusually one-sided. The left-handed hitting Brandon Lowe is out with a kneecap fracture and lefty Luke Raley has been sidelined with a cervical problem and might or might not play in this series. Switch-hitting Wander Franco, of course, is out as well.
All of these injuries leave the Rays with a lineup that is very heavy in right-handed hitters, from Yandy Diaz to Harold Ramirez to Randy Arozarena. The only left-handed hitters on their season-ending roster combined for 31 homers -- Josh Lowe (20 homers), Tayler Walls (8) and Raimel Tapia (3). This will make it easier for Bochy to make choices with his bullpen.
Brewers-Diamondbacks
Arizona's free swingers vs. Milwaukee's dominant staff
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a distinct style on offense: They are going to swing, mostly put the ball in play and they're going to run like hell -- in the regular season, only the Reds swiped more bases than Arizona's 166. Corbin Carroll compiled 65 extra-base hits, 54 stolen bases and scored 116 runs.
But as the Milwaukee Brewers' pitching has reformed after some early-season injuries, the rotation led by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff (who will miss this series) had an ERA of 2.74 from Aug. 19 through regular season's end, almost a half a run better than any other team. Burnes gave up four runs -- including three home runs -- in Game 1, meaning the pressure is on Peralta and an improved Milwaukee defense on Wednesday. Over the same period at the end of the season, Brewers opponents had a batting average on balls in play of .247, by far the lowest in the game. Think about this: Devin Williams, the Milwaukee closer, had 36 saves and just 26 hits allowed during the regular season -- in 58⅔ innings. That basically means the guy who takes the ball in the ninth inning for the Brewers was allowing one hit a week.
The Diamondbacks will need to maximize the runners they get on base in this series, so when they do, they'll need to run -- they were successful on two of four attempts on Tuesday against William Contreras, who allowed 77 steals in 93 attempts in this first season of new pickoff regulations. (Victor Caratini, the Brewers' other catcher, surrendered 44 steals in 51 tries.)
Corbin Carroll vs. the strike zone
He's been the Diamondbacks' best player, is a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year and he'll probably land in the No. 5 or 6 spot on a lot of MVP ballots. But he's 23 years old and playing on the biggest stage in his life, and the Brewers will naturally probe to see just how far the adrenaline might overwhelm his swing decisions. Carroll had 125 strikeouts in 155 games in the regular season, but he was generally pretty good at staying within the strike zone. He reached outside about 30.5% of the time, and his swinging strike rate of 8.9% ranked 89th among the 133 hitters who qualified for the batting title.
Inevitably, the Brewers' pitchers will test his patience -- but if his 2-for-3 night with a homer in Game 1 was any indication, Carroll is up for the challenge.
Twins-Blue Jays
The Twins vs. their physical state
Minnesota's athletic trainers will deserve extra playoff shares for all of the work they've done this year trying to keep the team's core stars on the field. Some of their core stars will be playing at less than 100% physical capability even if they're on the field. In his first game back since Sept. 21, Royce Lewis had two home runs in his first two postseason at-bats, so apparently the hamstring strain he suffered isn't hindering him too badly. Carlos Correa, who has been plagued by plantar fasciitis and hadn't appeared in a game in two weeks, went 0-for-4, unsurprising for his struggles this season when he's managed to stay on the field (a .230/.312/.399 slash line). Byron Buxton was left off the wild-card roster after missing the past two months with a knee problem, but he has talked about wanting to be back for the playoffs. Manager Rocco Baldelli is juggling a lot of DH candidates, playing veterans with nagging injuries -- or making the tough decision to sit franchise players.
But context is important: Even with all of the ailments hanging on the roster, the Twins have had an excellent offense in recent months. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota ranked second among American League teams in runs and third in wRC+. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and others have thrived. Including on Tuesday in Game 1, the Twins have been winning without depending on their established stars -- which will either complicate Baldelli's choices or make them easier.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. his empty postseason history
He is 24 years old and his career is already filled with accomplishment: a second-place finish for AL MVP in 2021, three All-Star appearances, a Home Run Derby title. But like many legendary stars before him, his ridiculously small sample size of postseason struggles is bound to hang on him unless he has some October moments. He's not the first star to have his results measured against the expectations of what he's capable of -- Ted Williams, Barry Bonds and Clayton Kershaw all had to work their way through similar scrutiny.
Vlad Jr. is the Toronto Blue Jays' biggest star, and he does not yet know what it feels like to win a playoff game. The Jays have been swept in each of the two series in which he has played, and in those games, he's 2-for-15 with five strikeouts, one walk and no extra-base hits. He went 1-for-4 with a double on Tuesday -- and Toronto will need more from him if it has any shot of escaping the first round.