The MLB postseason is always an unpredictable, chaotic, messy and wonderful affair. No, we don't know who is going to win (although the Atlanta Braves are as heavy a favorite as we've seen in a long time after winning 104 games with one of the best lineups ever). We also don't know who will step up as an October hero. Sometimes it's the superstar carrying a team -- Bryce Harper has done it -- and sometimes it's a journeyman outfielder like Eddie Rosario (who shone for the Braves in 2021) or a rookie shortstop like Jeremy Pena, who was the World Series MVP for the Astros last year.
We can, however, make reasonable forecasts on the players most likely to make the biggest impact over the next month. Here's what I did. I took each player's regular-season WAR (the average between Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), adjusted it for playing time (so a player like Harper, who missed time in the regular season but will play every day in the postseason, isn't penalized) and factored in how deep a playoff run is expected from his team (using my colleague Brad Doolittle's odds, based on 10,000 postseason simulations).
I made a couple of tweaks to a player's WAR. First, I weighed a player's offensive contribution a little more. Not because defense isn't still important in the postseason -- it is! -- but because offense is so hard to generate. The overall batting average last postseason was .211 and the OPS a meager .649. In 2021, teams hit .244 with a .709 OPS. So those players who do hit can often have a bigger influence on the playoff outcomes. Likewise, all the extra off days mean a team's best starters and relievers pitch more often than in the regular season, so I gave them a value boost, as well. Last season, for example, Framber Valdez's percentage of innings for the Astros increased from 13.9% in the regular season to 19.8%. Zack Wheeler went from 10.7% to 23.8%. In 2021, Max Fried went from 11.8% to 19.8%. Relievers might come close to doubling their percentage.
All of that means this isn't a ranking of the 40 best players in the postseason! Great players we think won't play long will be lower on this list. Instead, you get this: our list of the 40 players ready to make the biggest impact this postseason. The top guy is no surprise.
1. Ronald Acuna Jr., RF, Braves
Strength: Acuna had the greatest power/speed season in MLB history, becoming the founding member of the 40/70 club with 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases. The key to his likely MVP season: He became one of the toughest hitters in the majors to strike out, and not only hit over .300 for the first time in his career but hit .337. He had career-best numbers against fastballs, cutting way down on his swing-and-miss rate. You used to be able to beat him with velocity up, but not nearly as much in 2023.
Weakness: Despite one of the strongest throwing arms among outfielders, Acuna's overall defense is less than stellar. He often gets poor reads, and Statcast ranked him among the bottom 3% of outfielders in outs above average. He got caught stealing a league-leading 14 times, so it will be interesting to see if he's as aggressive in the postseason.
2. Mookie Betts, RF/2B, Dodgers
Strength: Betts had his best offensive season in four years with the Dodgers, though he remains the likely MVP runner-up to Acuna. He absolutely destroyed fastballs and, after swinging aggressively at first pitches in 2022, got back to a more patient approach. As always, he's a dead-pull hitter (only two of his home runs went to right of center field), but he's so good at picking out his pitch and barreling up the baseball.
Weakness: The metrics confirm Betts has lost a step both in right field and on the bases. Once the game's best right fielder and one of its best baserunners, he's now more average in both areas. He started more games at second base in September, where he has held his own, especially on balls ranging to his left.
3. Max Fried, LHP, Braves
Strength: Fried is 43-15 with a 2.66 ERA over the past four seasons and closed out the clinching game of the 2021 World Series with six scoreless innings. He has been as consistent as any starter in the game, although he did miss three months because of a forearm strain and then had a blister issue in September. He has a five-pitch repertoire, including one of the best curveballs in the sport (he has allowed one home run off his curveball the past three seasons, and that came in 2021). He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't beat himself with walks. He's a legit ace.
Weakness: Is the blister going to be an issue? He made his final start on extra rest because of it -- then went on the IL and missed the final 10 days of the regular season to give it more time to heal.
4. Matt Olson, 1B, Braves
Strength: An old-fashioned, big, lefty slugger, Olson has one goal in mind at the plate: hit the ball a million miles. He did that often in 2023, setting modern Braves franchise records for home runs (54) and RBIs (137), breaking the marks held by Andruw Jones and Eddie Mathews. He's hardly one-dimensional, as he drew more than 100 walks, hit .321 in the second half and played all 162 games.
Weakness: He was much better against right-handed pitching, but it's hard to match up against him out of the bullpen because he's surrounded by so many right-handed batters in the Atlanta lineup. Pitchers will try to attack him with offspeed stuff.
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
Strength: At 34, Freeman is as good as ever and will finish in the top 10 (likely top four) of MVP voting for the sixth consecutive season, eighth overall. Nobody hits line drives from foul line to foul line better than Freeman; he just missed becoming only the seventh player and first since 1936 with 60 doubles in a season. And keep an eye on him when he's on first base: He's 23-for-24 stealing bases. Oh, and he has been spectacular in his postseason career, hitting .296/.403/.544.
Weakness: None? OK, if we want to nitpick, his defensive metrics are a little all over the place, with Statcast saying he has above-average range but defensive runs saved saying he's below average.
6. Spencer Strider, RHP, Braves
Strength: No starting pitcher generates as much swing and miss as Strider, who relies primarily on a 97 mph riding four-seamer up in the zone and a wipeout slider (while mixing in some changeups against lefties). He led the majors in strikeouts and led starters with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while limiting batters to a .210 average.
Weakness: He does give up home runs and has been prone to the big inning, especially of late. His ERA was 5.67 over his final six starts, despite otherwise excellent peripheral numbers. Also, keep this mind: Starting on four days of rest becomes a bigger factor in the postseason. Strider had a 5.56 ERA in eight starts on four days.
7. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
Strength: With three straight seasons of at least 33 home runs, Riley has developed into one of the more consistent power hitters in the game and loves driving the ball to left-center field. After a slow start, he was on fire in the second half, and he's terrific at sniffing offspeed pitches, hitting over .300 against both curveballs and changeups.
Weakness: As with many big right-handed hitters, you can beat him with velocity up and in and sliders away, as he does have some swing and miss in his game. He hit .205 against sliders, but be careful: He crushed sliders in 2022.
8. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros
Strength: Strength -- but with a premier hit tool to match. Indeed, Alvarez is more of a hitter who happens to be very strong than a pure power guy. Since his debut season in 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge have a higher OPS, and Alvarez has a higher batting average and lower strikeout rate than either. His power is from left-center to the right-field line, and he destroys right-handed pitching, with an OPS over 1.000 and nearly as many walks as strikeouts.
Weakness: Well, he's slow (I doubt we'll see him in left field in the postseason). He is marginally weaker against lefties -- though he hit .295/.385/.507, so he's hardly an easy out -- and Houston manager Dusty Baker has been hitting Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, his two lefties, third and fourth down the stretch, making it a little easier for opposing managers to match up out of the bullpen.
9. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
Strength: Despite playing just 90 games because of injuries, Altuve still hit .311 with 17 home runs, and it's still almost impossible to slip a fastball past him -- he hit .351 against them, including .357 with a .661 slugging against four-seamers. He remains as dead pull as pull hitters go, yet 13 of his 17 home runs came on the road, so his power plays away from the Crawford Boxes.
Weakness: He will sneak a stolen base every now and then, but at this point he's a below-average runner with below-average range at second base (plus one of the weakest arms).
10. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
Strength: In many ways, today's Kershaw isn't that much less effective than vintage Kershaw, even if his fastball now averages less than 91 mph. He still knows how to spot it, and his curveball and slider play so well off each other that he posted a 2.42 ERA this year. Batters hit just .207 against him -- left-handers were especially feeble, hitting .162. With no Julio Urias, no Walker Buehler, no Tony Gonsolin, Kershaw is back to having to be The Guy in the Dodgers' rotation.
Weakness: The declining velocity has left him more vulnerable to the home run; he allowed 18 in 126⅓ innings, including 10 off his slider. Note that because Kershaw missed July because of shoulder soreness, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has kept him on a tight pitch count, topping out at 84 pitches and five innings.
11. Kyle Bradish, RHP, Orioles
Strength: The second-year starter had a breakout season and gives the Orioles a legitimate -- if somewhat anonymous -- top-of-the-rotation starter. He throws hard enough, with a fastball that averages 94.5 mph, but it's his other pitches that make him effective. According to Statcast, Bradish's slider/curveball combo ranks in the 100th percentile of all pitchers. Batters hit just .159 against the two pitches with a 35% strikeout rate.
Weakness: His four-seamer gets hit hard: .366 average and .602 slugging percentage allowed. He throws it only 22% of the time, and mostly to left-handed batters (he prefers a sinker against righties), but it's a pitch that doesn't generate much swing and miss, and if he's not locating his breaking stuff, he can get hit.
12. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves
Strength: Albies (listed at 5-foot-8, 165 pounds) is a little guy who plays a big man's game. He set a career high in home runs, joining the Braves' power parade with 33. He's an aggressive hitter but boasts a good contact rate and excels at getting the ball in the air, which leads to the good power numbers despite below-average raw power. The switch-hitter has always been a much better all-around hitter from the right side, where he boasts a career mark above .300, including .391 in 2023.
Weakness: Albies always seems like one of those hitters who is chasing fastballs, so he is vulnerable against slow stuff, struggling against changeups and splitters. His Statcast defensive metrics were extremely poor, ranking near the bottom of second basemen in fielding run value.
13. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros
Strength: As Verlander said after the Astros clinched the division on the final day, 2023 has been a "grind" for him -- from his injury to open the season, to the trade from the Mets, to struggling to get his mechanics in sync. He came up big when it mattered most in the final week, taking a shutout into the ninth against the Mariners and tossing five scoreless against Arizona. He four-seamer now averages 94.3 mph, but he still trusts it and throws it 50% of the time.
Weakness: He's learned to survive despite below average strikeout and swing-and-miss rates. Will that play in October? Even in a much more dominant regular season in 2022, when he won the Cy Young Award, he had a 5.85 ERA in four playoff starts.
14. Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B, Orioles
Strength: The likely AL Rookie of the Year, Henderson has a well-rounded game with power, good defense at both positions, above-average plate discipline and plus speed. The left-handed hitter got off to a slow start through May but has been one of the league's top players the past four months and plays with the confidence and poise of a veteran.
Weakness: He has a big platoon split, hitting just .210 against lefties. The Orioles have tried different leadoff hitters and appeared to have settled on Henderson versus right-handed pitchers, but he moves down in the order against southpaws.
15. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
Strength: The hard-throwing rookie right-hander -- and likely No. 2 starter behind Kershaw -- will look to save the battered Dodgers rotation. His game revolves around a high-octane fastball -- he throws both a four-seamer and sinker -- that ranked as the fastest among starters at 99 mph. His changeup has turned into a big weapon, giving him a reverse platoon split.
Weakness: He's more control over command, and his overall strikeout and whiff rates are middle of the pack. Otherwise, it's just the general concern, with any young pitcher who has already pitched more innings than he ever did in the minors, about hitting the wall at the end of the season. The good news for the Dodgers: He finished strong, with a 3.18 ERA and a 40-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the final month.
16. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
Strength: At his best, the broad-shouldered southpaw runs his sinker and cutter in on right-handed batters, hoping to get them to pound the ball into the ground, or drops in a curveball and changeup down in the zone as his swing-and-miss offerings. We saw him at the top of his game last October, when he allowed just six runs in 25 innings with a .161 average and one home run allowed.
Weakness: He has been wildly inconsistent in 2023, even from start to start, and had a 4.66 ERA in the second half. The sinker has flattened out at times -- he's throwing it much harder at 95 mph -- and that has allowed batters to slug .447 against it.
17. Sean Murphy, C, Braves
Strength: Murphy is arguably the best defensive catcher in the game, excelling in all four categories Statcast tracks (pitch blocking, caught stealing rate, framing and pop time). The Braves got him from the A's for his defense, but he also had a good season offensively: He hit career highs in OPS and home runs while ranking in the 90th percentile among all hitters in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.
Weakness: Unfortunately, he did all that damage in that first half, when he hit .306/.400/.599 with 17 home runs and was right up there in the MVP discussion. His offense cratered in the second half -- he hit .159. He also had just one RBI in the final month. Subjectively, I'd move him down, but the formula just reads his season totals, which remain strong.
18. Will Smith, C, Dodgers
Strength: Smith usually bats third in the Dodgers' lineup and can be a tough out, especially with runners on base when he shortens his swing and puts the ball in play. He hit .303 with runners in scoring position and .282 with runners on, much better than his overall .261 average (numbers that have tracked over his career).
Weakness: He has really struggled against four-seam fastballs, hitting .181. That hasn't been a problem before this season, but there's no doubt pitchers will try to attack him with velocity. While he had that clutch home run off the other Will Smith in the 2020 NLCS, he has mostly struggled in his postseason career, hitting .204/.288/.366 in 38 games.
19. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles
Strength: The Orioles have done nothing but win since he came up in May 2022. He's the team leader, and I compare him to Derek Jeter: Maybe he doesn't have the best stats in the league, but this is the guy you want on your team and at the plate in a big moment. His best skill: getting on base, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. My gut says that if the Orioles make a run, it's because Rutschman has a big postseason.
Weakness: No major ones other than non-elite exit velocity numbers. You do always worry about a catcher wearing down in October -- between catching and DHing, Rutschman played 154 games. Still, September was his best offensive month, so he enters his first postseason with momentum.
20. Kyle Tucker, RF, Astros
Strength: All of Tucker's metrics are above average -- most of them well above average. He rarely chases out of the zone, can hit velocity (according to Statcast, had the fourth-most run value against four-seam fastballs, behind only Olson, Freeman and -- surprise -- teammate Chas McCormick) and hangs in there against lefties (he actually had a higher OPS against left-handers). He also stole 30 bases in 35 attempts.
Weakness: A Gold Glove winner in 2022, Tucker's defensive metrics took a big slide backward this year, as he ranked in the 13th percentile in range. Honestly, the Astros as a team have been sloppy on defense at times, much more often than we're used to seeing from them.
21. Michael Harris II, CF, Braves
Strength: The 2022 Rookie of the Year was hitting .163 on June 6 before he found his stroke -- he hit above .330 the rest of the way with an OPS above .900. He hangs in well against breaking balls for a young hitter, batting .304 and slugging .581. He's a plus defender in center with an outstanding arm and is 40-for-46 stealing bases in his career.
Weakness: Harris still has two big holes in his offensive profile. He can be beat with good velocity, hitting under .200 without a home run against 95-plus mph, and his high chase rate means he swings at too many pitches out of the zone and rarely walks.
22. Zach Eflin, RHP, Rays
Strength: One of the more shocking offseason signings -- a three-year, $40 million deal that was the biggest free agent deal in Rays history -- Eflin promptly caught some of that Rays pitching magic and went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA. He's a premium strike-thrower, walking just 24 batters in 31 starts, and the command of his sinker, curveball and cutter and ability to generate grounders allow him to succeed despite below-average fastball velocity.
Weakness: Is he ready for the spotlight? He pitched out of the bullpen for the Phillies in last year's postseason and even began the playoffs as the closer -- picking up a save in his second outing. Then he allowed three runs in his next appearance and lost the closer gig, but rebounded with seven scoreless appearances.
23. Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
Strength: Seager was fifth on the list until the Rangers blew the division title on the final day, drastically altering the World Series odds for the Astros and Rangers. Seager had one of the best offensive seasons ever for a shortstop, with a 1.013 OPS. He has no obvious holes in his swing, hitting over .300 against all pitches, and has been one of the prime beneficiaries of the new shift rules (he lost more hits last season to the shift than any other hitter). The NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020, Seager has had big postseason moments in the past.
Weakness: Visually, he doesn't appear to be the rangiest shortstop around, but his defensive metrics are decent enough even, though his arm is below average. Teams might try to match up a lefty against him out of the pen, but he still hit over .300 and slugged over .500 against southpaws.
24. Marcell Ozuna, DH, Braves
Strength: Back in April, Ozuna struggled so badly there was talk the Braves would release him, but he ended up with a big offensive season, hitting .274/.346/.558 with two home runs on the final day to reach 40. He slugged .717 against four-seam fastballs and .590 against two-seamers.
Weakness: Curveballs and changeups aren't exactly his Kryptonite, but if you can get him to two strikes, that's when he'll chase those pitches out of the zone (he hit .157 with two strikes).
25. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Strength: Plate discipline and contact ability. He ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate and 98th percentile in contact rate, so he puts up good offensive numbers despite mediocre hard-hit rates, finishing with more walks than strikeouts.
Weakness: For the second season in a row, Bregman was better against right-handers than lefties, as he has struggled against changeups. That could be nothing but a small sample thing, but it's another reason teams might try to navigate the Bregman-Alvarez-Tucker part of the order with left-handed relievers -- if they have a good one.
26. Sonny Gray, RHP, Twins
Strength: Maybe the sleeper starter of this entire postseason, Gray's 8-8 record doesn't jump out but his 2.79 ERA and league-leading 2.83 FIP are testament to his outstanding season. More than anything, Gray keeps the ball in the park: He allowed just eight home runs in 184 innings, easily the best among any pitcher with 100 innings. He throws the whole kitchen sink at you, with six different pitches he uses at least 7% of the time.
Weakness: Below-average fastball velocity (92.9). Will that play in October?
27. James Outman, CF, Dodgers
Strength: The rookie center fielder rates well under the formula with value coming from his range in center field, speed on the bases and a solid offensive season thanks to 23 home runs -- 22 of those against right-handed pitching.
Weakness: He has big-time swing-and-miss issues -- the kind of player who might struggle in the postseason. He also did a lot of his damage early, when he hit .292 with seven home runs in April. Although, after midseason struggles, he hit 11 home runs the final two months.
28. Max Muncy, 3B, Dodgers
Strength: Power and patience. He's going to hit home runs and draw walks, and he has been a good postseason performer for the Dodgers, hitting .238/.398/.490 in 43 games.
Weakness: He's in a key slot in the lineup, hitting after Betts and Freeman, which makes him one of the most important RBI guys of the postseason, because you expect those two to be on base a lot. But if Muncy is not hitting home runs, he's not getting many other hits (he had 36 home runs and 48 singles), and Dodgers fans certainly grew frustrated with that .212 average.
29. Bryce Elder, RHP, Braves
Strength: A durable second-year right-hander, Elder, a University of Texas pitcher, will play a huge role for the Braves as Charlie Morton will miss the division series because a finger issue. Elder is primarily an old-school sinker/slider starter, trying to get batters to pound the ball into the ground.
Weakness: His strikeout rate is in only the 13th percentile of all pitchers, so he needs those ground balls and soft contact. He got those results in an All-Star first half but had a 5.11 ERA in the second half, as his walk and home runs rates increased and his strikeout rate decreased. I suspect Brian Snitker will have quick hooks with him -- not that the Atlanta bullpen has been a strength of late, either.
30. Chas McCormick, LF/CF, Astros
Strength: We mentioned McCormick was one of the most productive hitters in the majors against four-seam fastballs, hitting .333 and slugging .694. He ended up doing much of his damage overall against left-handers, as he hit .325 against them compared to .250 against righties.
Weakness: How much will he even play? Michael Brantley's return means Brantley might be in there against right-handers, and Baker likes Mauricio Dubon's defense in center (although McCormick's metrics are good).
31. J.D. Martinez, DH, Dodgers
Strength: Martinez still hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in the game, with 97th percentile or better rankings in average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. More than ever, he's hunting fastballs, and he slugged over .600 against them. After an injury in August, he returned and crushed the final month with a .355 average and eight home runs, so he's on a heater entering October.
Weakness: He's definitely selling out for either power or fastballs, resulting in the highest strikeout and whiff rates in his career -- both in the bottom 10th percentile.
32. Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays
Strength: The Mr. Universe of major leaguers, Diaz raised his game to a new level -- and it was pretty good in 2022. He hits rockets all over the field, ranking in the 97th percentile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He mixes in elite plate discipline while destroying left-handers to the tune of an 1.101 OPS -- best in the majors.
Weakness: He'd hit more home runs if he lifted the ball more, but he hit .330, so let's not nitpick too much. He has below-average range at first and is station to station on the bases (unlike most of the Rays).
33. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Rays
Strength: Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery and is still throwing 96 mph -- which helps set up one of the best curveballs in the game. Batters hit .095 against it with an incredible 52% whiff rate, helping Glasnow to an elite strikeout rate of 12.2 per nine innings.
Weakness: While Glasnow pitches with a lot of charisma and confidence, his previous postseasons have been pretty shaky, with a 5.75 ERA across 40 innings. His big problem has been home runs and, indeed, when batters manage to make contact against him, they do square him up, as he's in the bottom 11% in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed.
34. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies
Strength: Wheeler might be my No. 1 pick if I could draft any pitcher this postseason -- but the formula is going to downgrade the Phillies' chances because: (A) The 50/50 nature of the wild-card series; (B) If they win that, they play the Braves. Still, the Phillies will take their chances with this guy on the mound off his strong postseason last year. Wheeler's four-seamer is one of the best in the game, ranking sixth in run value and fifth in whiff rate among starters.
Weakness: His slider hasn't been as consistently dominant as last season, going from a .202 average allowed to .270 (although he has compensated with a new sweeper or slurve and is throwing his slider less often).
35. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers
Strength: With Brandon Woodruff out of the wild-card series because of a shoulder issue that could keep him out all of October, the pressure of staff leader now falls completely on Burnes. He's not quite the unhittable force he was in 2021, but he still ranked second among qualified starters in lowest batting average allowed and third in lowest OPS. He uses a five-pitch mix, relying on a cutter he throws 55% of the time instead of a fastball, with his curveball, slider and changeup all effective secondary pitches.
Weakness: His control is sometimes a little wobbly, at least compared to two years ago, and that can lead to some inefficient outings, as he went fewer than six innings in 11 of his 32 starts.
36. Royce Lewis, 3B/DH, Twins
Strength: Lewis was the Twins' best hitter during his 58 games, hitting .309/.372/548 with 15 home runs -- including that incredible stretch when he hit four grand slams in eight games. He crushed four-seam fastballs: going 19-for-57 (.333) with eight home runs.
Weakness: Is he healthy? He went on the IL on Sept. 21 with a hamstring strain, although he's expected to be activated for the wild-card series. He might end up serving as the DH to protect the hamstring, with Edouard Julien playing second and Jorge Polanco shifting to third.
37. Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers
Strength: Semien is the consummate "does everything well" type of player. Indeed, thanks to not missing a game, he ranked first among AL position players in WAR (not including Shohei Ohtani's value as a pitcher). Despite below-average exit velocities and hard-hit rates, he's so good at pulling the ball (he hit one opposite-field home run) and making contact at optimal launch angles that he still generates a lot of extra-base hits.
Weakness: Like most Rangers hitters, he benefited from Globe Life Field, which played as the most extreme home run park in the majors in 2023. He hit 18 of his 29 home runs at home and slugged .535 compared to .422 on the road.
38. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros
Strength: The one reliever who cracks our list, Abreu isn't the Houston closer -- that's Ryan Pressly -- but he is Baker's go-to high-leverage setup guy along with Hector Neris. He had a 1.75 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 72 innings, relying on a 98 mph fastball and wipeout slider. He had a dominant postseason last year with no runs allowed in 11⅓ innings, appearing in 10 of Houston's 13 playoff games.
Weakness: The hanging slider. He served up six home runs, five of them on sliders.
39. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Rangers
Strength: With Max Scherzer sidelined and Nathan Eovaldi trying to get back on track, Montgomery suddenly is the Rangers' ace. Since coming over from the Cardinals he has been terrific, with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts, including just two runs in 27 innings over his final four outings. Montgomery relies heavily on pounding his running sinker inside to righties, hoping they hit it into the ground, or looking to get them to chase his curveball or changeup.
Weakness: He's below average in both swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate, so will he rack up the strikeouts that define October pitching?
40. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies
Strength: The final numbers turned out fine -- .293/.401/.499, 21 home runs -- but it took 16 home runs the final two months to get there after failing to hit for much power when he returned quickly from Tommy John surgery. His second-half numbers are a better representation of what to look for in October: .296/.413/.583. More than anything, however, it's his ability to rise to the occasion. Who can forget the home run off Robert Suarez to clinch last year's NLCS?
Weakness: This is kind of odd, given Harper has one of the highest walk rates in the majors and an average strikeout rate, but his whiff rate is way down in the 11th percentile. So he swings and misses a lot. And his chase rate is also way down in the 21st percentile. Let's just say he doesn't get cheated on his swings.